In our pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Traders awaiting fresh catalysts to sustain the rally that erased the S&P 500’s YTD losses amid a US-China trade truce, continued deceleration in inflation, and a resurgence in technology shares.
We remain skeptical of TSLA’s +49% move since dismal 1Q earnings (vs NDX +19%, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) +37%, META +35%) as we still see asymmetrical risk associated with the Austin June robotaxi event. We remain concerned the new more affordable Tesla launch in 2H may involve stripped down Model Y trims (lower prices funded by lower costs, no new form factor, no new TAM) that cannibalize existing higher-priced Tesla M-Y trims. We continue to believe TSLA 2Q and FY’25 deliveries could be down -10% YoY and -8% YoY respectively, vs WS 2Q deliv ests of -5% and FY’25 deliv ests of -3% respectively. We still like TSLA stock long-term, but would wait for a more compelling entry point to add to positions.
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