$Tesla(TSLA.US) still not showing any degradation in order flow despite the recent spate of bad PR. Third party credit card data sourced from Bloomberg shows that daily YoY orders through 3/13 have not changed much from a quarter earlier and weekly orders through 3/9 are actually higher. While true that consumers pay cash (or finance with loans) to take delivery of new Teslas, credit cards are commonly used for the down payments.
Model 3 shipments still seem steady YoY even after normalizing for last year’s 1Q shipments by using the average over the year for the 2024/1Q period. If brand damage was severe as the MSM implies, wouldn’t Model 3 deliveries show deterioration? Our thesis remains that the drop off in TSLA 1Q YoY deliveries is due to limited Model Y inventories, which has caused buyers to delay taking deliveries until the new refreshed ModelY is available. We normalize M-3 shipments for last year’s 1Q because 2024/1Q M-3 shipments were low due to the M-3 Highland transition that started in China and Europe in 2023 4Q and impacted U.S. M-3 delivs in 2024 1Q. Finally, TSLA China insured registrations show just a -4% 1Q YoY decline through 3/16, despite limited refreshed Model Y inventory in China and customers waiting for the updated version. We will get new TSLA China weekly registrations data through 3/23 on Monday night. We expect a weekly registrations of 16-18K after a quarterly best 15.3K registrations last week.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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