Gary Black Tracker
2025.03.20 15:02

Top question I’m getting: Why does the $Tesla(TSLA.US) brand even matter if TSLA’s valuation is more about robotaxi and humanoid robots than Tesla EVs?

No disrespect but TSLA is in the business of selling EVs, unsupervised autonomy, and ultimately humanoid robots to consumers. Brand is critical to consumers’ trust, and if Elon’s political rhetoric and DOGE activities are hurting that brand and leading to acts of hate against owners of Tesla vehicles and stores, Elon (and Trump) need to formulate a plan to stop the hatred to protect the current EV brand. Second, TSLA needs to invest in the marketing skills needed to sell unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots in the future.

As of 2024 4Q, 81% of TSLA profits came from the EV business, with just 2% of that 81% from FSD purchase and rentals. By 2030, assuming a 25% take rate, we estimate 78% of TSLA profits from EVs with 10% from FSD purchase and rentals. So persuading and delighting consumers is as critical as manufacturing and operational expertise.

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