SuperTesla
2025.02.28 08:12

$Tesla(TSLA.US) has fallen for 6 consecutive days with a cumulative drop of nearly 22%. Fine, let's talk about the reasons for it... Calm down

Weak Sales Data

January 2025 saw disastrous sales across key markets:

Europe: Plunged 45% YoY (while the European BEV market grew 37%)

China: Down 15% YoY

USA: Down 13% YoY (market share collapsed from 59% to 45%)

Wall Street slashed Q1 delivery forecasts to 420-430k units (from 470k), crushing market confidence.

Musk's Recklessness

Musk's political antics are fracturing Tesla's core demographics: Eco-conscious left-leaning consumers are abandoning the brand; his public endorsement of Germany's far-right AfD party triggered European backlash; dangerous clashes with US regulators amplify policy risks.

Market Sentiment & Capital Flows

Weak US economic data undermines the strong dollar narrative, intensifying capital outflow pressures. As the worst performer among the "MAGA7" tech giants, Tesla's decline is dragging the S&P 500 below the Euro Stoxx 600 and Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index.

FSD in China: Reality Check

Tesla launched not full self-driving but a watered-down version of Enhanced Autopilot (EAP). Core obstacles remain: data compliance issues and computational bottlenecks. In China's cutthroat EV market, domestic players have built comprehensive moats.

Buy the Dip?

Short-term: Avoid catching the falling knife until sales stabilize. Closely monitor upcoming earnings and Musk's ongoing brand-damaging political theatrics.

Long-term: FSD tech, EV leadership, and robotics still hold appeal. China strategy refresh and new models could reshape prospects, but survival against local rivals requires constant scrutiny.

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