To be honest actually - NVIDIA's earnings look solid on paper. Plenty will still bet long, since nobody wants to see this cash cow collapse. But the looming R2 release next quarter? That's where things get dicey.

Risk 1: R1's open-source frameworks

They just dropped three this week, all turbocharging mid-tier chips' performance - fixing the lag issues everyone complained about. Two more frameworks coming. Who knows what other surprises they have up their sleeves?

Risk 2: The R2 reckoning

NVIDIA's barely holding against R1. If R2 delivers high-end results using domestic chips, will cloud giants keep swallowing Blackwell's premium pricing? Microsoft's already axing data center projects. When budgets tighten, corporate loyalty evaporates faster than morning fog.

Risk 3: The democratization trap

Huang's right about demand exploding for affordable compute power. But here's the kicker - the barrier to entry's collapsing. Domestic players and AMD are circling like sharks. If this becomes a margin-crushing price war for mid-range chips while high-end sales stall... How long before that 70% gross margin fantasy implodes?

Risk 4: Sentiment whiplash

Pre-R1, NVIDIA could do no wrong - especially with Apple tripping over itself. Then R1 dropped like a grenade. Now we're in this eerie calm before R2's storm. The market's pricing in zero disaster scenarios, but when reality bites, stock prices correct faster than a drunk trader's spreadsheet errors.

The real question isn't about current numbers - it's whether NVIDIA's premium valuation still makes sense in a world where open-source alternatives are rewriting the rulebook every quarter.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)