Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Technology experiences fluctuations, rising and falling; AI terminal devices perform outstandingly

【Market Dissection】

The data released by the U.S. Department of Labor was completely in line with expectations: the seasonally unadjusted CPI year-on-year for July recorded 3.4%, the smallest increase since March, down from 3.5%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month for July recorded 0.1%, returning to positive growth, indicating that inflation in the U.S. was relatively mild in July. The U.S. stock market showed little volatility, while the A-shares performed well in the morning but experienced a plunge in the afternoon. The Hong Kong stock market was not significantly affected, slightly down by 0.17%.

Following the release of the mild data, Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave reiterated that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates three times this year, with the first hike in September. The reasoning is that if rate hikes are paused now, once inflation accelerates again, long-term U.S. Treasury yields may lose their anchor. In the current relatively sensitive situation, such strong "hawkish" remarks naturally make the market nervous. Gold was the most affected, with Lingbao Gold (03330) dropping over 9%, leading to adjustments in the non-ferrous sector, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) also falling over 6%.

Another unexpected event was the sudden surge in the Japanese yen. The market is concerned that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates. As a core global funding currency, a rate hike could trigger the unwinding of carry trades, leading to a withdrawal of leveraged funds from risk assets. This had the greatest impact on technology stocks, causing A-shares to weaken as many tech stocks experienced sharp declines. The Hong Kong market saw a similar pattern, with stocks rising and then retreating.

Tencent (00700) released its earnings, with revenue of 204.8 billion exceeding expectations, but free cash flow turned negative at 13.8 billion due to prepayments for computing power. Capital expenditures in Q2 were 52.8 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations (65% higher than the estimated 32.1 billion). Spending on computing power is certainly the right move in the long run, as it is impossible to balance everything in the short and long term. The market is concerned about when the company will recoup such a large investment, leading to today's decline.

The company clearly stated that it will continue to increase computing power procurement in Q3, with full-year capital expenditure expectations further revised upward, indicating that domestic internet giants are still in an accelerated phase of AI computing power expansion. Today, A-share stocks related to switches performed excellently, while in the Hong Kong market, the focus was on super nodes. Huqin Technology (03296) is one of the few domestic companies that simultaneously develops computing nodes, integrates 800G high-speed switches, provides integrated liquid cooling, and high-voltage direct current power supply. Each cabinet can interconnect up to 64 GPUs, specifically serving large model training clusters; orders include: Alibaba's Panjiu 128-card super node core NRE design, winning a bid for 1,500 cabinets; Tencent's Galaxy V3 super node winning a bid for 1,000 cabinets; undertaking ByteDance's new generation cabinet verification in Guangxi; Huawei's Ascend 384-card super node core ODM foundry; performance guidance is also strong: the company expects revenue from the super node single business to exceed 10 billion by 2026, with large-scale deliveries in the second half of the year. Today, it surged over 10%.

Optical communication giant Coherent recently released its financial report, with quarterly revenue reaching a historical high of 2.05 billion USD, and the performance outlook exceeding market expectations, confirming the high prosperity of the optical communication industry. Cambridge Technology (06166) rose over 6% Today, the market strengthened mainly due to performance-related stocks. Lenovo (00992) reported explosive earnings, with Q1 revenue for the fiscal year 2026/27 increasing by 43% and net profit doubling. Revenue from artificial intelligence-related products grew by 60% year-on-year, accounting for 35% of the group's total revenue. The order scale for AI servers has increased from RMB 140 billion at the end of the previous fiscal quarter to RMB 360 billion, a nearly 157% increase. Recently, internet giants like Alibaba and Tencent have been increasing their CAPEX, and the demand for Lenovo's AI servers is expected to rise further, leading to a more than 20% surge today. The CEO of Honor stated in an interview, "The entire consumer electronics industry, and possibly even industries closely related to memory, are facing immense pressure, as the global market space is contracting. However, there are also opportunities; the next 2-3 years will definitely be a time of explosive growth for AI terminal devices."

In the field of terminal AI devices, besides Lenovo (00992) and leading ODM Huaqin (03296), there is also a second-tier ODM, Longqi Technology (09611): previously focused on mobile phone ODM, it has now expanded into AI PCs. The company stated that it has completed mass production and delivery across multiple platforms including Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm, such as lightweight high-performance AI PCs and 360-degree convertible PCs. After acquiring Kejun, it developed its own ultra-thin cooling solution, perfectly addressing the high heat issues caused by high NPU computing power in AI PCs, forming a unique collaborative advantage. New additions include AI glasses and in-car tablets, although their scale is small, the growth rate should be high, with a more than 11% increase today. Another player in AI terminal devices, Wistron Neweb (00856), rose nearly 5%.

There are also consumer goods with good performance. Bruker (00325) saw a 32.7% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of the year, with a major highlight being the rapid growth in overseas markets, where revenue increased from RMB 111 million in the same period last year to RMB 366 million, a year-on-year growth of 228.5%, with its proportion of total revenue rising from 8.3% to 20.6%. Among them, revenue from the Americas increased from RMB 44 million in the same period last year to RMB 198 million, a year-on-year growth of about 349%, accounting for about 54% of overseas revenue. Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.56, and an interim dividend of HKD 0.3247 per share is proposed. Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp. (00322) ended its decade-long era of professional managers at the beginning of this year, with the CEO returning to the founding family, taken over by the founder's third son, Wei Hongcheng. The situation has improved, with revenue in the first half reaching RMB 40.545 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.433 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, earning RMB 162 million more than the same period last year. Institutions expect the company's dividend payout ratio to remain at 100% in the next 2-3 years, making the dividend yield attractive, with a more than 6% increase today.

In the innovative drug sector, capital is deeply involved. As long as there are no major sectors attracting funds, capital will continue to flow in this direction. Mainstream players like CXO Kanglong Huacheng (03759), August Zhizhong Gold Stock Bai Aosaitu (02315), and Genscript (01548) all rose over 5% Recently, global analog chip giants have been intensively adjusting prices. ADI has initiated its second price increase of the year, citing demand growth, rising manufacturing costs, inflationary pressures, and investments in capacity expansion. TI has completed three rounds of price adjustments since the price increase wave began in August 2025, covering core products such as digital isolators, isolation driver chips, and power management ICs. Domestic analog chip companies are facing historic opportunities. According to data from the China Business Industry Research Institute, the domestic analog chip market size has grown from 157 billion yuan in 2021 to approximately 220.3 billion yuan by 2025, and is expected to reach 245.1 billion yuan in 2026. Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic analog chips is only about 16%, still at a low level, with significant room for domestic leader Shengbang Technology (03661) to localize production, which rose over 9% today.

NVIDIA pointed out that with the launch of the new generation of accelerated platforms and the increase in power density, traditional AC power has encountered efficiency bottlenecks. It is collaborating with Google, Microsoft, and 80 device infrastructure companies to promote the 800VDC high-voltage direct current architecture and plans to gradually introduce AIDC starting in the second half of 2026. This directly benefits NVIDIA's official partner, Innoscience (02577): 800V full-link GaN chips; as well as Tianyue Advanced (02631): all 800V high-voltage SiC and SST devices will require SiC substrates.

On August 12, MSCI announced the results of the MSCI Stock Index review for August 2026. In this adjustment, the MSCI Global Standard Index will include 55 securities and exclude 92 securities. The top three newly added components to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by market capitalization are: Zhizhu (02513), Nanya Technology, and Dingtai Gaoke (301377.SZ). This quarterly MSCI index adjustment will take effect after the market closes on August 31. Zhizhu (02513) rose over 9%, and Zhitong's August golden stock MINIMAX-W (00100) rose over 5%.

【Sector Focus】

On August 13, SMIC (00981) announced that in the second quarter, the company achieved total sales revenue of $3 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%; the gross profit margin was 25.3%, an increase of 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. In the third quarter, revenue is expected to grow by 2% to 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross profit margin guidance of 26%-28%. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the industrial push and spillover effects generated by artificial intelligence will continue to create broad demand for integrated circuit manufacturing. The company is flexibly allocating existing capacity and quickly validating new capacity to help alleviate the tightness in the supply chain. Overall, the company maintains an optimistic outlook on industry trends and its own development.

Huahong Grace (01347) reported a gross profit margin of 16.5% in the second quarter, estimated at 14.9%; second-quarter revenue was $717.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 27%, estimated at $702.7 million; second-quarter net profit was $38.6 million, estimated at $39.4 million. Huahong Grace expects a gross profit margin of 16% to 18% in the third quarter, with market estimates at 16.6% The company expects third-quarter revenue to be between $770 million and $780 million, while the market estimates $822.3 million.

Both giants have significantly exceeded expectations, and the Q3 guidance continues to rise, indicating an overall optimistic outlook for AI.

【Stock Pick】

Maifushi (02556): Explosive Profit Growth Accelerates the Implementation of Foreign Trade AI Intelligence

The company announced its interim results, achieving total revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.2%; AI application business revenue of 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.7%; net profit of 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 466.1%; adjusted net profit of 213 million yuan, an increase of 150.9% year-on-year; earnings per share of 0.8 yuan.

Commentary: The significant growth in both revenue and profit reflects the resonance between the scaling of AI applications and improvements in operational efficiency. The company expects to generate overseas trade revenue of 75.934 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 134.4%, far exceeding the growth rate of domestic business. In the first half of 2026, overseas revenue is expected to increase by 89% year-on-year, with 982 overseas paying customers. The company's AI business is expected to explode in 2026, with AI accounting for more than half of the revenue. In Q1 2026, AI revenue is expected to increase by 110.5% year-on-year, traditional marketing by 0.9%, and precision marketing service revenue is approximately 1.331 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 86%, providing enterprises with more flexible online promotion solutions in advertising placement and marketing data analysis. The company's core AI-Agentforce 3.0 platform and self-developed GEO large model - a self-developed multi-model fusion framework, can schedule self-developed Tforce and large models from Baidu/Alibaba, optimizing costs and controlling effects. The company has accumulated thousands of reusable knowledge graphs, serving over 210,000 enterprises. Its core partners include Baidu, Alibaba Cloud's general large model, and cloud computing foundation. Muxi Co., Ltd. (domestic GPU) jointly creates an "integrated machine of domestic chips + intelligence," adapting to Xinchuang, reducing costs + ensuring security. Beilian Guoxin, OceanBase (Ant Group): Xinchuang servers and databases, independently controllable.

Globalization is accelerating, with the company focusing on Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe in 2026, directly serving local enterprises, and increasing the proportion of overseas revenue. AI integrated machines, GEO intelligent assistants, and industry vertical agents continue to iterate, building a "token factory" (priced according to output value). The self-sufficiency rate of computing power reaches over 60%, making it one of the few domestic AI application leaders with self-sufficient computing power. The token factory model is mature, with payment based on usage/effect, ensuring revenue certainty and significantly improving gross profit. The number of KA customers has doubled, AI Agent penetration has increased, and the pace of going overseas has accelerated, with a higher proportion of payment based on effectiveness (higher gross profit). Localized deployment of computing power for overseas (Southeast Asia/Middle East) opens up a second growth curve. The company's AI intelligence orders are being implemented in bulk, with sufficient long-term framework orders in the consumer, automotive, and financial industries, a very high renewal rate, and a rapid increase in the proportion of AI orders