SG Morning Brief | Alphabet and Tesla Both Disappoint After Hours; Oil Pulls Back to $91 from $95 Spike

US Overnight

The S&P 500 slipped 0.14% to 7,498.96, the Nasdaq fell 0.57% to 25,690.90, and the Dow was essentially flat at 52,218.58. Oil dominated: Brent crude surged 3.4% to $94.07, briefly topping $95 for the first time in over a month, and WTI climbed 3% to $86.83. Secretary of State Rubio declared Iran is "not serious about talks," while Defense Secretary Hegseth disclosed to Congress that the US has spent $37.5 billion on the war so far — now in its eleventh consecutive day of strikes. Energy stocks rallied and banks mostly gained, while tech came under pressure from rising yields and oil. The chip sector was mixed, with the SOX edging up 0.44%. Nvidia climbed 2.3% and Super Micro surged 26% on a record order backlog. After the close, both Alphabet and Tesla reported — and both disappointed in different ways.

Key Movers

SpaceX (SPCX) -6% — SpaceX fell over 6%, setting a new post-IPO closing low. The stock is now roughly 10% below its $135 IPO price with short sellers holding about a third of the float. The selloff accelerated after Rubio's comments on Iran, as SpaceX's proximity to the Musk-Trump political nexus makes it a lightning rod for geopolitical sentiment.

Meta (META) -2% — Meta fell over 2%, leading the Magnificent Seven lower ahead of its own earnings report next week. The stock declined despite no company-specific catalyst, reflecting anxiety about mega-cap valuations with oil near $95.

After hours: Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) initially fell sharply, then recovered — Alphabet dropped as much as 5% after raising its full-year capex forecast, even though Q2 cloud revenue far surpassed expectations and the cloud division's backlog ballooned to over $500 billion. The stock pared losses to around -3% as investors digested the strong demand signal. Tesla fell as much as 5% after Q2 earnings missed estimates, with margins compressed by rising battery and memory costs, before also recovering partially. IBM fell in after-hours trading after lowering its 2026 annual sales forecast.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070. DBS near S$62.18, UOB near S$37.91. Oil at $94-95 is a direct headwind for Singapore — import costs are spiking again and the disinflation narrative from two weeks ago is rapidly fading. The Alphabet and Tesla misses may weigh on Asian tech at the open. However, Alphabet's $500 billion cloud backlog confirms that AI enterprise demand is real and growing, which is constructive for the broader AI supply chain including Singapore's semiconductor names.

Asia Pre-Market

Nasdaq futures are down about 1% on the Alphabet and Tesla after-hours results. Dow futures are off 0.2%. Brent at $94 means July CPI will almost certainly re-accelerate, potentially reviving the rate hike debate that June's 3.5% print had quieted. Gold rose to $4,137 on safe-haven demand. The market enters Thursday with the worst geopolitical backdrop since the war began: Rubio saying Iran is "not serious," oil back near $95, and the two largest after-hours earnings reports both disappointing.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Next week: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon all report. Apple reports early August.

Earnings Spotlight: The Capex Paradox — Alphabet just showed the market exactly what it feared: AI demand is surging (cloud backlog $500B+) but the cost of capturing it is also surging (raised capex). The stock fell not because the business is weak but because investors cannot determine when massive AI spending translates into proportional returns. Tesla's miss adds a different data point: rising memory and battery costs are compressing margins for AI's end customers. Together, they paint a picture of an AI boom where the infrastructure layer captures the value and the application layer pays the price.

One More Thing

Brent at $95. Rubio saying Iran is "not serious." $37.5 billion spent on the war. These are not numbers that support a disinflation narrative. Two weeks ago, CPI at 3.5% had markets celebrating the end of the inflation scare. Tonight, oil is back where it was in May. If Brent stays above $90 through August, the July and August CPI prints will re-accelerate, the September FOMC becomes a live hike meeting, and the brief peace dividend is fully reversed. The market's biggest risk is not AI spending — Alphabet's $500 billion backlog proves that demand is real. The risk is that $95 oil erases every inflation gain the Iran ceasefire delivered.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.