Understanding the Market | Copper Stocks Rise Across the Board as Inventory Depletion Rate Exceeds Market Expectations, Supply and Demand Tightening Logic is Gradually Being Realized
Affected by the significant decline in copper inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the realization of tight supply and demand logic, copper industry stocks rose across the board. Individual stocks such as Jiangxi Copper and CHINFMINING saw significant gains. Although the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations bring volatility risks, the rapid depletion of domestic electrolytic copper inventory exceeded market expectations, shifting the trading logic of the sector from expectation to reality
According to Zhitong Finance APP, copper stocks have risen across the board. As of the time of writing, Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358) is up 7.9%, trading at HKD 33.58; China Nonferrous Mining (01258) is up 7.17%, trading at HKD 13.9; Minmetals Resources (01208) is up 5.67%, trading at HKD 7.83; and Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (03993) is up 3.29%, trading at HKD 16.66.
On the news front, copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a significant decline on July 20, totaling 35,091 tons, down 4,561 tons from the previous day, a decrease of about 11.5%. Hongyuan Futures pointed out that global copper and sulfur supply-demand expectations are tight, disrupting production and smelting. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory continues to decline, but concerns about potential inflation fluctuations in the U.S. have raised expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September, which may lead to high volatility in copper prices in Shanghai.
Dongfang Securities noted that although domestic electrolytic copper social inventory in early March 2026 is significantly higher than that from 2022 to 2025, after the copper price drop in March, the pace of inventory reduction exceeded market expectations. As of July 10, domestic copper social inventory has decreased from a peak of 577,200 tons to 165,000 tons, a reduction of 71%. The rapid inventory reduction reflects the tightening supply-demand logic that is gradually being realized, and the trading logic in the copper sector is shifting from expectations to actual transactions
