SG Morning Brief | S&P and Nasdaq Post Best Quarter Since 2020; SOX Soars 88% in Record Q2

US Overnight

The S&P 500 rose 0.8% and the Nasdaq gained 1.52% on the final day of Q2, capping the best quarter for both indexes since 2020. The Dow advanced 0.25% to 52,312.48. The Russell 2000 closed at 3,024.37, up 21.86% year-to-date — the best-performing major US index. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained nearly 4% on the day, finishing Q2 up 88% — the best quarter in its history. The session saw a clear rotation back into tech and out of defensives: utilities and consumer staples each fell over 1.5%, and real estate dropped 2.1%. In Doha, US envoys arrived for scheduled Iran talks, but a Qatari official said there would be no high-level meeting with Iran — a setback for the peace process. The 10-year yield rose 3.9 bps to 4.461%. Bitcoin slipped to $59,030.

Key Movers

SanDisk (SNDK) +11% — SanDisk surged nearly 11%, leading all S&P 500 constituents, as the AI memory supercycle continued to defy the broader rotation. The stock has gained over 4,000% in one year and remains the best-performing S&P 500 name of 2026 by a wide margin. Western Digital also posted strong gains.

Apple (AAPL) +3% — Apple rose 2.7%, leading the Magnificent Seven higher after recovering from last week's 6% plunge on hardware price hikes. The stock's resilience on Q2's final day suggests window-dressing by funds adding their most beaten-down mega-cap positions before quarter-end reports.

Nike (NKE) -3% — Nike fell 2.68% after reporting fiscal Q4 earnings. Annual revenue declined about 2% as expected, and EPS of $0.13 matched consensus. The results included a one-time tariff refund benefit. The stock is down roughly 24% in Q2, making it one of the worst Dow performers this quarter.

Q2 Scorecard

The quarter was powered by the AI chip supercycle (Micron crossing $1 trillion, SanDisk +4,000% one-year), the SpaceX IPO ($75B, largest ever), and the Iran ceasefire MOU (signed June 17 at Versailles). But it also saw CPI hit 4.2%, PPI 6%, the KOSPI crash 10%, and Warsh's hawkish FOMC debut with 9/18 members favoring hikes.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070. DBS near S$62.18, UOB near S$37.91. The strong Q2 close and SOX's record quarter are positive for Asian tech. However, the Doha talks stalling is a risk — if the Iran framework continues to fray, oil could rebound and reignite inflation fears. Today marks the start of H2 2026; Schwab notes cyclical and value sectors (industrials, materials, healthcare) are favored for the next six to twelve months.

Asia Pre-Market

Futures data was not yet available. The Nasdaq's +1.52% gain and SOX's 4% advance set a constructive tone. Oil is near $70-73 with the Doha setback adding uncertainty. The VIX fell 6.8% to 16.45, the lowest since mid-June. Warsh speaks at a European forum today — his comments will be parsed for any softening of the hawkish stance given oil's 34% decline from its May peak.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Tomorrow (Thursday): June Nonfarm Payrolls. Friday July 3: markets close early. July 7: SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100.

Data Spotlight: ISM Manufacturing + ADP (Tonight) — Manufacturing PMI has been expanding for six straight months, supported by AI-related new orders. A reading above 54 would confirm the factory sector is healthy despite rate hike fears. ADP provides the first read on June hiring ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls. A strong ADP print reinforces the "no cuts" stance.

One More Thing

SOX +88% in a single quarter. That is not a typo. The semiconductor index nearly doubled in three months, driven by the AI memory supercycle, Nvidia's infrastructure dominance, and the SpaceX-fueled AI hardware boom. No major stock index has posted a quarterly gain of that magnitude since the dot-com era. The question for Q3 is whether the trade broadens or breaks. Schwab's sector outlook favors industrials, materials, and healthcare over the next twelve months — a bet that the AI-driven economy is real, but its stock market expression needs to widen. If Warsh holds rates and the Iran deal somehow survives, Q3 could see the Great Rotation accelerate. If inflation stays sticky and Hormuz stays contested, the 88% becomes the high-water mark.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.