U.S. Stock Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together, Micron Technology's earnings report and NVIDIA's shareholder meeting are coming tonight

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of June 24 (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.08%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.55%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 1.22%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.04%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.26%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.29%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 2.46%, priced at $71.41 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 2.27%, priced at $75.06 per barrel.

Market News

Setting aside the noise from the tech stock plunge, Barclays and Stifel see strong earnings and a year-end target of 7800 for the S&P 500. Amid the recent sell-off in U.S. stocks, both Barclays and Stifel released reports on the same day, raising their year-end target for the S&P 500 index in 2026 to 7800 based on strong corporate earnings prospects. The Barclays analyst team led by Venu Krishna noted in their report: “The logic of the bull market remains intact, but as the support from Federal Reserve policies fades, visibility on earnings and AI capital expenditures needs to play a greater role.” Barclays raised its earnings per share forecast for the S&P 500 index in 2026 from $321 to $337 and provided a first-time target of 8800 for the index in 2027. However, the path upward is not without obstacles. Barclays warned in the report that rising inflation concerns and a strong labor market have triggered market worries about Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which could erode stock market performance. Stifel equity market strategist Thomas Carroll also views strong earnings as a key catalyst for the stock market to continue rising. However, he also observed signs of ongoing rotation among mega-cap stocks.

Technical negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will continue on June 30. Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi stated on the 24th that technical negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will continue on the 30th of this month. Andrabi mentioned at a regular press conference that technical teams from Pakistan and Qatar will continue to maintain close contact with the U.S. and Iranian technical teams in the coming weeks to ensure the effective implementation of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry further stated that although the technical negotiation process between Iran and the U.S. has occasionally been interrupted, both sides are still continuing their discussions Goldman Sachs: Expects U.S. Core PCE to Return to 2% Era Around 2027. Goldman Sachs' inflation forecast chart shows that although U.S. core inflation will still be supported by the transmission of energy prices, rising costs of AI-related products, and demand pressures from a booming stock market in 2026, the overall inflation trend will gradually decline. Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. core PCE inflation rate will briefly remain around 3% in 2026 before continuing to decline, approaching 2% by 2027. Goldman Sachs assesses that the process of U.S. inflation's "last mile" decline, although slow, will ultimately see both PCE and CPI converge towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Tech Stock Plunge Ignites "Domino Effect"! Gold Plummets Below $4,100, Safe-Haven Assets Transform into Liquidity Reservoirs. The sell-off triggered by Wall Street tech stocks has prompted investors to reduce their gold holdings to cover losses in other areas of their portfolios, further widening the decline in gold prices. As of the time of writing, spot gold has dropped over 1%, trading at $4,057 per ounce. Although gold is considered a safe-haven investment, it often declines during significant cross-market sell-offs as it serves as a source of liquidity. The plunge in tech stocks has added further pressure on gold, which had already been suppressed by inflation concerns—inflation risks imply that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Notably, several major international banks have recently lowered their gold price forecasts.

The Reopening of Hormuz Rewrites the Inflation Script! Macquarie Slashes Brent Crude Oil Forecast Amid Calls for $200 Oil Prices. International financial giant Macquarie Group has recently significantly lowered its benchmark forecast for international oil prices in 2026 and 2027, primarily due to the expectation that oil flows from the Middle East will quickly normalize with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the framework of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Macquarie strategists expect the average price of Brent crude oil to be $77 per barrel in 2026, significantly lower than their previous forecast of $89 per barrel and the extreme $200 forecast under the U.S.-Iran conflict scenario. The firm also revised its 2027 Brent average price outlook down from $74 per barrel to $64 per barrel. Strategists noted that despite many obstacles that could hinder the rapid normalization of Middle Eastern oil production and trade flows to pre-war levels, the overall adjustment speed of producers in the region may be faster than the market generally expects.

Individual Stock News

Micron Technology (MU.US) Earnings Report Influences Global Tech Stocks! Micron Technology will announce its third-quarter earnings after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. Wall Street analysts unanimously expect Micron Technology to report earnings per share of $20.57, with revenue around $35.25 billion, indicating a year-on-year surge of 1,000% in earnings per share and a 279% increase in revenue. Given that the valuation of the current AI computing infrastructure sector is at a high level and positions are crowded, with investors generally concerned that the current rally has exhausted its gains, this upcoming earnings report from Micron Technology is significant. If the report signals that underlying AI computing demand remains strong and capital expenditures related to AI continue to grow, it will boost market bullish sentiment and support the continuation of the AI bull market. Meanwhile, the options market is betting on significant volatility in Micron Technology's stock price. Options traders currently expect the stock price to fluctuate about 14% after the earnings report, corresponding to a market capitalization change of over $150 billion While bullish sentiment is strong, the market is also actively preparing for the possibility that Micron Technology's performance may unexpectedly fall short of expectations or that future growth guidance and outlook may not be strong enough to prevent a pessimistic decline that fails to stop the sell-off. Traders are still buying protective options at high prices to guard against further declines in stock prices.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) shareholders' meeting is about to be held. NVIDIA will hold its 2026 annual shareholders' meeting online at 12:00 AM Beijing time on June 25. The shareholders' meeting is not taking place in a calm environment but is under the triple pressure of a cooling semiconductor sector, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, and a rising narrative of an AI bubble. The focus of this meeting will be on the capacity ramp-up of the Blackwell architecture and the new Vera architecture chips, the commercialization progress of the AI ecosystem, and the capital return plan for the substantial cash flow. The Blackwell architecture is NVIDIA's core product line for 2026, aimed at providing higher computing power density and energy efficiency for the training of next-generation AI large models. At the shareholders' meeting, NVIDIA is expected to disclose data on the capacity ramp-up of Blackwell. If the delivery volume exceeds expectations, it will directly prove that AI demand has not shrunk but is still accelerating—this will strongly counter the "AI bubble" narrative. Meanwhile, if NVIDIA can showcase a prototype or roadmap for Vera at the shareholders' meeting, it will inject new certainty into the long-term growth narrative of AI chips. Additionally, the capital return plan to be discussed at the shareholders' meeting may include dividend increases, accelerated buybacks, and strategic investments. For investors, the capital return plan is not just about "how much dividend" but also a signal of management's confidence in the sustainability of future cash flows. If NVIDIA significantly increases the buyback scale, it indicates that management believes the current stock price is undervalued—this will become a strong anchor point for valuation bottoms.

Hot stocks, cold bonds! SpaceX (SPCX.US) $25 billion bond debut falls short of expectations, trillion-dollar market value fails to dispel bond market "wariness." Although credit rating agencies state that SpaceX has excellent qualifications and meets investment-grade corporate standards, the bond market's attitude is much more cautious. As part of the $25 billion financing plan, SpaceX issued bonds maturing in 2036, which were ultimately priced at a premium of 1.4 percentage points over U.S. Treasury bonds of the same maturity, a spread about 0.4 percentage points higher than the average level for BBB-rated similar bonds. This premium reflects that, despite SpaceX achieving a milestone with the largest IPO in history this month and being highly sought after by the capital market, it faced a more composed bond market buyer during its first bond issuance under Elon Musk's rocket, satellite, and AI empire. However, the spread level is still attractive enough to entice bond investors. According to insiders, during the peak of subscriptions, orders once approached $90 billion, and although it fell back to $73 billion by the time of pricing, it still far exceeded the issuance scale. Compilation data shows that the final subscription multiple was less than three times, below this year's average of four times for high-quality corporate bonds.

AI chip newcomer Cerebras (CBRS.US) releases first financial report: annual guidance only increases by 69%, though exceeding expectations, still fails to satisfy market appetite. Cerebras' first financial report shows that first-quarter sales soared 94% to $193.4 million, better than the market expectation of $181.4 million; The net loss was $14 million, better than the market expectation of a loss of $58.6 million; the loss per share was $0.22, also better than market expectations. However, the company expects revenue to reach $855 million to $865 million in 2026, representing a year-over-year growth of 69% based on the midpoint. According to compiled data, the average analyst forecast is $824.8 million. Despite the full-year revenue guidance being better than expected, like other competitors, Cerebras must cope with high investor expectations, as the market originally anticipated the company to capture a larger share of the AI chip market. As of the time of writing, Cerebras fell over 11% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

FedEx (FDX.US) Q4 profits exceeded expectations but still faced sell-off, with cost erosion and macro headwinds as the triggers. The financial report showed that for the fourth fiscal quarter ending May 31, FedEx's adjusted earnings per share were $6.31, significantly higher than the market expectation of $5.96; revenue for the quarter grew 12.6% year-over-year to $25 billion, also exceeding the market expectation of $24.04 billion. However, this impressive profit performance could not mask the immense pressure it faced operationally. The operating profit margin for its core FedEx segment fell from 8.4% in the same period last year to 7.7%. The company's overall profit margin dropped to 8.4%, below analyst expectations. The company expects adjusted earnings per share in 2026 to be between $16.90 and $18.10, an increase from the estimated $15 for 2025, and anticipates revenue growth of 11% in the new fiscal year. Analysts pointed out that the new profit target is "slightly below market expectations, which gives management room to adjust guidance based on annual progress." As of the time of writing, FedEx fell over 6% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Qualcomm (QCOM.US) accelerates "de-mobile"! Reportedly negotiating custom chip design services with ByteDance. According to four insiders, Qualcomm is negotiating with China's ByteDance to provide chip design services. This move indicates that the American chip giant is seeking to reduce its reliance on the smartphone market, its largest source of revenue. If negotiations are successful, ByteDance will become an early customer of Qualcomm's chip design services business. Two sources revealed that the chip will be partially based on technology owned by AlphaWave Semi, a high-speed connectivity specialist acquired by Qualcomm last year. Three sources indicated that negotiations are still ongoing, and the final outcome remains uncertain.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

01:00 Beijing time the next day: NVIDIA holds its annual shareholder meeting

04:00 Beijing time the next day: The Federal Reserve releases the results of the annual bank stress tests

Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: Micron Technology (MU.US), Trip.com (TCOM.US)

Thursday pre-market: Yirendai (YRD.US)