Ming-Chi Kuo: No One Doubts Apple Will Catch Up in AI, but WWDC26 Will Determine the Validity of the Bullish Narrative
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that WWDC26 will determine the validity of Apple's AI bullish narrative. Although the market generally believes that Apple can catch up in AI, the key to the conference lies in whether Apple can build a differentiated experience based on the Gemini model to surpass Google. If successful, the bull market logic will continue until the end of 2026; otherwise, the narrative will face scrutiny. JPMorgan is also focusing on the Siri overhaul and expectations for new products in the fall
Apple's annual developer conference, WWDC26, will open on June 8. Prominent supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that regardless of what is presented at this conference, as long as the core market narrative regarding Apple's AI potential remains intact, the positive trend in Apple's stock price in the second half of the year will not easily change.
On Monday, Kuo stated on social media that his latest supply chain survey indicates that Apple's business momentum will remain strong until the end of the year. This will further reinforce the market's core narrative: "If Apple has performed so well without AI, it will be even more promising once AI is in place."
He pointed out that what is truly worth watching at WWDC26 is not the short-term stock price reaction after the conference ends, but whether Apple can leverage the same Gemini model to surpass Google in AI applications, agent workflows, and hybrid on-device and cloud experiences.
Core Narrative: AI Lag Does Not Alter Bull Market Logic
Kuo summarized the core logic of the current Apple bulls as a near-intuitive market consensus: "Even if Apple is temporarily behind in AI, it will eventually catch up and win." He believes that while this narrative currently has weak points, there is a high probability it will last at least until the end of 2026.
In his view, WWDC26 will not change the positive trend in Apple's stock price in the second half of the year, but it will test the durability of this bull market narrative.
The key criterion for judgment is: Using the same underlying Gemini model as Google, can Apple achieve differentiation at the application level and create a superior AI experience? If the answer is yes, it will help sustain the core narrative; if the answer is no, it means that Gemini sets a ceiling for Apple's AI experience, and the narrative that "Apple will ultimately win" will begin to face increasingly strict scrutiny—although the stock price may not necessarily turn bearish as a result.
JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee also listed the comprehensive overhaul of Siri as a core highlight of this conference in a preview report released on June 3. He noted that Apple rarely disclosed the phrase "AI advancements" in its agenda, which analysts interpreted as Apple's confidence that the relevant upgrades will be implemented as scheduled. Meanwhile, expectations for new products in the fall, such as the foldable iPhone and touchscreen MacBook, are heating up, and the market's overall expectations for Apple's product cycle in the second half of the year are rising.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market involves risks, and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investors are responsible for their own decisions.
