Don't Just Focus on Chips! Bill Ackman: Quality Giants Are Being Forgotten, Beware of Repeating the 'Dotcom Bubble' Mistake

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman warns that the current market is replaying the mistakes of the 2000 Dotcom Bubble—investors are flocking to hot sectors like chips and semiconductors, leaving truly high-quality assets behind.

On Wednesday's "All In" podcast, Ackman stated that short-term capital is flowing into "new new things" such as chips, semiconductors, and energy, causing high-quality tech giants like Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft to be severely undervalued. He holds positions in all three companies and established a new position in Microsoft in February this year after its stock price fell following its earnings report, characterizing it as a winner in the artificial intelligence field. This stance directly challenges the current logic for allocating technology stocks.

At the same time, Ackman issued cautious signals regarding the outlook for the software industry. He singled out Salesforce, arguing that some software companies have long charged monopolistic high prices to customers and face substantial risks under the impact of the AI wave, requiring investors to conduct "very prudent analysis" of related targets.

History Repeats: High-Quality Assets Neglected by the Market

Ackman directly compared current market sentiment to the herd psychology during the Dotcom Bubble. He pointed out that around 2000, investors were obsessed with internet concept stocks, while Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, was labeled by the market as "old-fashioned assets," with its valuation falling to historic lows.

"The interesting thing about the market is that people always focus on new new things," Ackman said. "Truly high-quality things are often forgotten as a result." He believes that Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are currently suffering the same fate—their valuations are suppressed at unreasonably low levels as capital clusters in chips and semiconductors.

Just a month ago, Ackman publicly urged investors to buy stocks, stating that "the share prices of high-quality companies have become extremely cheap," clearly expressing a bullish view on the long-term allocation value of high-quality assets.

AI Is Both a Threat and an Opportunity; Software Companies Must Innovate

Ackman's judgment on AI directly influences his stock selection logic.

He stated that every investor today is exposed to the AI wave, either directly or indirectly. "You are either a beneficiary or facing a threat, so you must understand it." He emphasized that for long-term investors, it is crucial to assess the probability of AI causing disruptive impacts on specific businesses, and this probability "has risen significantly."

Against the backdrop of the continuous decline in the software sector this year, Ackman's attitude is quite vigilant. He singled out Salesforce, arguing that some niche software companies have long relied on their monopoly status to charge high prices to customers—for example, annual subscription fees of $30,000. Such business models will face severe challenges as AI alternatives emerge. "If you are a software company, you must integrate AI as deeply as possible," he said.

SpaceX and OpenAI: Prudent Assessment Amid the IPO Wave

Regarding the much-discussed upcoming wave of IPOs, Ackman expressed restrained interest.

He stated that SpaceX holds a near-monopoly position in low-cost space launch services, an advantage that "will become increasingly important." He is focused on what the company will look like in five years.

As for OpenAI, which is also preparing for a listing, Ackman believes its business model is attractive but needs to communicate more clearly to the market how it deploys capital. He did not give explicit buy or avoid recommendations for either company, maintaining cautious wording.