CICC: Tesla's global expansion of FSD may accelerate the increase in global smart driving penetration rate

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that Tesla's global expansion of FSD (Full Self-Driving) is accelerating, which is expected to enhance the global penetration rate of intelligent driving. At the same time, Tesla's advanced intelligent driving and Robotaxi services are creating a "catfish effect," further increasing consumer acceptance of intelligent driving, thereby pushing the industry chain into a growth cycle.

CICC's main points are as follows:

FSD software and hardware upgrades lead the world in intelligent driving capabilities.

In terms of algorithms, the latest upgraded FSDv14 version has increased its parameter count tenfold compared to previous versions, introducing innovative algorithm architectures in various aspects such as multi-modal end-to-end, real-time inference, reinforcement learning, and MLIR compiler. Additionally, Tesla has launched Robotaxi services based on FSDv14. The firm believes that the fully self-developed and end-to-end multi-modal architecture establishes Tesla's leading advantage in FSD, while domestic automakers and third-party algorithm suppliers accelerate the optimization of intelligent driving experiences.

Global expansion of FSD and increased subscription rates bring new business models.

The global expansion of FSD has reached 10 countries, and for the Chinese market, Tesla has made adequate preparations in terms of data compliance, building its own computing power centers, and deep cooperation with domestic map providers to obtain qualifications. Thanks to the improved experience of FSDv14, the mileage and subscription rates of FSD have seen rapid growth. The firm believes that as FSD enters multiple global markets and gradually switches to a subscription model, it will promote a paid business model for intelligent driving software and further enhance the global penetration rate of intelligent driving.

Waymo successfully runs a commercial closed loop, and Tesla's gradual path from L2 to L4 may open up a new paradigm for industry development.

As of May 2026, Waymo has deployed over 3,000 Robotaxis in the United States, with a market share exceeding 25% in the San Francisco operational area. Additionally, Waymo has chosen to collaborate with Uber in Austin, leveraging Uber's traffic base and mixed scheduling capabilities to rapidly enhance city opening efficiency. The firm expects that this tripartite cooperation model may provide an effective path for algorithm companies to accelerate city openings. Unlike Waymo's high-precision map + LiDAR model, Tesla adopts a light map model and adheres to a gradual technological route from L2 to L4, with single-vehicle costs benefiting from self-built capacity and the absence of LiDAR configurations, making it more competitive. The firm anticipates that this may lead to the development of a new paradigm in the industry.

Risk Warning: The pace of FSD's global expansion may slow, regulations may not be introduced as expected, Robotaxi expansion may fall short of expectations, and the development of intelligent driving technology may not meet expectations