SG Morning Brief | Oil Crashes 6%, S&P Rebounds 1%, Nvidia Beats but Stock Slides

US Overnight

The S&P 500 surged 1.08% to 7,432.97, the Nasdaq jumped 1.54% to 26,270.36, and the Dow rallied 645.47 points (+1.31%) to 50,009.35, snapping a three-session losing streak. Oil's collapse drove the rally: WTI crude plunged 5.66% to $98.26 and Brent fell 5.63% to $105.02 after Trump told reporters the administration was in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran. The 30-year yield pulled back from Tuesday's 19-year high of 5.19%, easing pressure on rate-sensitive equities. The Russell 2000 jumped over 2%, outperforming large caps. Target, Lowe's, and TJX all beat Q1 estimates before the open, reinforcing the "resilient consumer" narrative. The FOMC minutes from the April 29 meeting revealed that a majority of participants are prepared to tighten monetary policy if inflation continues running above 2%, confirming the hawkish shift that drove last week's bond selloff.

Key Movers

Goldman Sachs (GS) +6% — Goldman surged 5.75% to $982.12, within striking distance of $1,000, after the Wall Street Journal reported Goldman will be named lead underwriter on SpaceX's upcoming mega-IPO in June (valued at $1.75 trillion). Morgan Stanley, which will serve as co-lead, rose 4.3% in sympathy. The deal is the largest IPO in history and a major fee windfall for Goldman's investment banking franchise.

After hours, Nvidia (NVDA) — Nvidia closed at $223.47 (+1.30%) ahead of its earnings report, then slipped to $221.31 (-0.97%) in after-hours trading despite a clean beat-and-raise. Q1 EPS came in at $1.87 (vs $1.78 est) on revenue of $81.62 billion (vs $79.2B est), with data center revenue nearly doubling year-over-year. Q2 guidance of $89.1-92.8 billion crushed the $86 billion consensus. The company raised its dividend. Jensen Huang said concerns around the company "have been clearly addressed" and identified three growth markets exceeding $1 trillion in demand. The muted after-hours reaction is consistent with Nvidia's pattern of declining after each of the last three earnings reports.

SGX Preview

The STI was trading near 5,004 on Monday. Oil's 6% crash is unambiguously positive for Singapore's import-dependent economy and should ease inflation expectations. DBS was at S$57.70, UOB at S$38.54. The Nvidia beat-and-raise, even with the stock sliding after hours, validates AI infrastructure spending and should support Venture Corp and local tech sentiment. Banks benefit as the FOMC minutes confirmed a hawkish tilt, sustaining higher-for-longer rates and net interest margins.

Asia Pre-Market

S&P 500 futures were down 0.27%, Nasdaq futures down 0.45%, and Dow futures down 0.16% in pre-market data available before Nvidia reported. The post-earnings Nvidia slide may pressure Nasdaq futures further at the Asia open. WTI at $98.26 and Brent at $105.02 represent the first time oil has traded below $100 and $106 respectively since early May. Gold was at $4,545 and Bitcoin at $76,864. The key question for today: does the market trade Nvidia's strong fundamentals or its post-earnings stock weakness?

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Earnings Spotlight: Walmart (WMT) — Walmart reports before the open and will provide the clearest read on the US consumer under $4.50/gallon gasoline. Target's beat yesterday suggested spending is holding up, but Walmart's lower-income customer base is more sensitive to energy price spikes. If Walmart confirms resilient demand, the "no recession" narrative strengthens. If it flags trade-down behavior or margin pressure from fuel costs, stagflation fears resurface.

One More Thing

Nvidia beat. Revenue up 80% YoY. Guidance $7 billion above consensus. And the stock barely moved after hours — down less than 1%. This is the fourth consecutive report where Nvidia has beaten estimates and failed to rally meaningfully. At some point, the pattern stops being a surprise and starts being a signal: the market already owns Nvidia's upside. The AI thesis is not broken — data center revenue nearly doubled — but the stock is telling you that perfection is priced in at $5.5 trillion. The more interesting story may be oil. WTI below $100 for the first time in weeks changes the inflation math overnight. If the Iran deal closes, CPI could decelerate sharply in Q3, reopening the door for rate cuts under Warsh. That trade — long bonds, long rate-sensitive equities — is more interesting than chasing Nvidia after another post-earnings dip.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.