U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three major stock index futures rise together, Iran delineates two Hormuz shipping lanes, oil prices plummet in response

1. On May 7th (Thursday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all rose, with Dow futures up 0.20%, S&P 500 futures up 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.05%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell 0.33%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.62%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.06%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.07%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell 4.34%, trading at $90.95 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 3.99%, trading at $97.23 per barrel.

Market News

Iran designates two shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to plummet. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced the designation of two shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern media cited sources stating that the US and Iran have reached a consensus on easing maritime blockades and gradually reopening the strait. This news triggered a sharp decline in international oil prices. According to Iranian media reports on the 7th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has designated two lanes for vessels to pass, and vessels are still prohibited from crossing the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian permission. Previously, Xinhua News Agency cited Middle Eastern media reports that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US maritime blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, this news has not yet been confirmed by the US or Iran. Following the announcement, international oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude oil falling by 3.0% during the day, trading at $97.98 per barrel. US oil plummeted close to $90.

The Japanese government’s “intervention hand” swings again in the foreign exchange market! The Ministry of Finance is suspected of adding $30 billion to support the yen. According to the latest analysis report by Wall Street analysts on the Bank of Japan's accounts, the Japanese financial authorities may have used approximately $30 billion to intervene in the foreign exchange market just days after the previous round of about $25 billion in foreign exchange intervention at the end of April. This is the latest sign of the Japanese Ministry of Finance's firm support for the yen's exchange rate. According to a comparison of the Bank of Japan's accounts and forecasts from currency brokers released on Thursday, the scale of the Japanese authorities' market intervention may be around 4.68 trillion yen. Thursday was the first working day after the Japanese Golden Week holiday ending on Wednesday. The Japanese government seems to be upgrading the "yen defense battle" from a one-time foreign exchange market intervention to a continuous, selective, and coherent deterrent management of the exchange rate U.S. White House Digital Asset Advisor: Striving to finalize the "Digital Asset Market Clear Act" legislation by July 4. Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Digital Asset Advisor Committee, revealed at the Miami CoinDesk's Consensus conference on Wednesday that the White House is striving for Congress to pass the "Digital Asset Market Clear Act" (CLARITY Act) before July 4. Witt stated, "We have set our goal for July 4. I believe this will be a great birthday gift for the 250th anniversary of America." He further explained that the specific path forward is for the Senate Banking Committee to review the draft this month, utilizing the four Senate working weeks in June to complete the full vote, and leaving enough time for the House of Representatives to vote before the Independence Day deadline.

Individual Stock News

McDonald's (MCD.US) Q1 performance mixed: Revenue and profit exceed expectations, but U.S. same-store sales growth falls short. McDonald's announced its first-quarter financial results on Thursday, showing an overall performance of "strong profits but slightly weak growth." Despite achieving revenue and profit that exceeded expectations in a challenging consumer environment, its same-store sales growth in the U.S. market did not meet Wall Street's expectations. The financial report showed that McDonald's adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $2.83, higher than the market expectation of $2.74; revenue grew 9% year-on-year to $6.52 billion, also exceeding the expected $6.47 billion. Net profit rose from $1.87 billion in the same period last year to $1.98 billion. However, in the crucial U.S. market, McDonald's same-store sales growth was only 3.9%, below the analysts' general expectation of 4.2%. This slight gap reflects that, despite the company's push for low-priced meal deals and limited-time offers, consumers, pressured by rising fuel and grocery costs, have become increasingly cautious in their spending.

Shell (SHEL.US) Q1 profit exceeds expectations: Oil and gas surge boosts trading business. Driven by the Iran conflict raising oil and gas prices and market volatility, Shell's trading business performed strongly in the first quarter, pushing profits above market expectations. The adjusted net profit for the first quarter of 2026 (as defined by the company) was $6.92 billion, significantly higher than $5.58 billion in the same period last year, and also exceeding the consensus expectation of $6.36 billion among analysts surveyed by the company. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose from $15.3 billion in the same period last year to $17.7 billion. As of the time of publication, the stock was down 1.95% in after-hours trading. The company stated that the significant profit increase was mainly due to enhanced contributions from downstream and renewable energy trading, improved oil and gas monetization prices, better refining margins, and reduced operating costs. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February, Brent crude oil prices have risen by more than 50%, and increased market volatility has brought significant benefits to European energy giants with large trading platforms.

Albemarle (ALB.US) follows lithium price surge, Q1 profits explode and crush expectations. In the first quarter of 2026, the world's largest lithium producer, Albemarle, announced results far exceeding market expectations, signaling that the lithium industry has officially emerged from its low point The financial report shows that this chemical giant achieved a net profit of $319.1 million in the first quarter, equivalent to $2.34 per share, compared to only $49.3 million in the same period last year, which was breakeven per share. Excluding one-time items, the adjusted earnings per share reached $2.95, far exceeding the average analyst expectation of $1.09 as per LSEG statistics. Revenue also performed strongly, with net sales in the first quarter increasing by 33% year-on-year to $1.43 billion, slightly above analyst average expectations. Adjusted EBITDA surged to $663.8 million, not only surpassing the expected $468.2 million but also more than doubling compared to the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 148%.

Applovin (APP.US) Q1 net profit surged 109% year-on-year, Q2 performance guidance exceeds expectations. Mobile software company Applovin (APP.US) reported its Q1 2026 results, showing a 59% year-on-year revenue growth to $1.842 billion, better than the analyst average expectation of $1.78 billion; adjusted EBITDA was $1.557 billion, a 66% year-on-year increase; net profit was $1.206 billion, a 109% year-on-year increase; earnings per share were $3.56, better than the analyst average expectation of $3.46. Looking ahead to Q2, AppLovin expects revenue to be between $1.915 billion and $1.945 billion, higher than the analyst average expectation of $1.89 billion; the adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be between 84% and 85%.

DoorDash (DASH.US) Q1 member registrations hit a record high, Q2 guidance exceeds expectations, highlighting strong demand. The U.S. food delivery platform DoorDash reported a 33% year-on-year revenue growth to $4.04 billion in Q1, which was below the analyst average expectation of $4.15 billion, attributed to the platform's lower commission rates; earnings per share were $0.42, better than the analyst average expectation of $0.36. DoorDash achieved a record number of member registrations in Q1. The company stated that the growth in DashPass membership in the U.S. was driven by new user registrations and a decrease in customer churn rate. In international markets, DashPass, Wolt+, and Deliveroo Plus memberships also saw growth. DoorDash expects the total market order value in Q2 to be between $32.4 billion and $33.4 billion, higher than the analyst average expectation of $32.3 billion, indicating that consumer demand for its services remains strong in both the U.S. and international markets.

Sony (SONY.US) plans to spend nearly $4 billion to acquire music copyrights from Bieber, Neil Young, and others. Sony Music (SONY.US) is finalizing a deal with Blackstone Group to acquire a music catalog that includes works by Justin Bieber and Neil Young. If the deal is completed, it will become one of the largest copyright acquisitions in music history. Sources say that Sony has entered exclusive negotiations to acquire Recognition Music Group, which is owned or managed by Blackstone and holds the rights to over 45,000 songs Sony will establish a joint venture with Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC to complete this acquisition, with the transaction price expected to be between $3.5 billion and $4 billion.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims

Earnings Forecast

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