In just a few hours, a "180-degree turnaround"! The United States shifted from "opposition" to "promotion" of the largest strategic oil reserve release in history, driven by Trump's concerns

The Trump administration completed a stunning policy turnaround in just a few hours, shifting from opposition to promoting the International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries to reach the largest emergency oil reserve release agreement in history—400 million barrels, more than double the previous largest release.

On March 11, according to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated at the G7 meeting on Tuesday morning that large-scale market intervention was "premature"; less than two hours later, the U.S. position suddenly reversed, actively lobbying allies to advance this unprecedented action.

Reports indicate that a senior White House official revealed that this "180-degree turnaround" was entirely due to Trump's personal change—he was persuaded by advisors that action must be taken to curb oil price volatility, and subsequently instructed Wright to push for market intervention. This abrupt shift reflects the high instability of decision-making in the Trump administration during the Iran war.

However, the market remains skeptical about the effectiveness of this "largest-scale" intervention— the release of 400 million barrels is only equivalent to about 20 days of transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices still rose over 5% on Wednesday.

From "Opposition" to "Promotion": A Policy Turnaround in Hours

According to The Wall Street Journal, citing informed sources, on Tuesday morning, Chris Wright conveyed the White House's position at the G7 energy ministers' meeting: since oil prices had recently fallen below $90 per barrel, large-scale market intervention was "premature." This statement reflected Trump's true thoughts at the time.

However, less than two hours later, U.S. officials completely reversed their position, pressuring allies to advance the large-scale oil release.

European officials were shocked by this abrupt turnaround but ultimately chose to go along with it. The 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency subsequently agreed to this historically largest emergency oil reserve release plan, even breaking the agency's usual practice of allowing member countries a 48-hour review period to make a quick decision.

According to U.S. officials, the core driving force behind this release was the Trump administration's deep concern over the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway in the Persian Gulf supplies about one-fifth of the world's oil, and a long-term closure would severely impact the global energy market.

Iran had repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz if attacked by the U.S. even before the bombing campaign began on February 28. However, according to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials, in their hasty response to this economic shock, neither laid the diplomatic groundwork in advance nor informed key allies beforehand.

Employ America policy execution director Arnab Datta criticized this directly:

"What shocks me is the complete lack of preparation for the consequences of this war on the energy market. Nothing was prepared, absolutely nothing."

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt defended the decision, stating:

"President Trump has previously indicated that he would responsibly use the strategic oil reserve at the appropriate time, and now is that time."

The Largest Release in History: Can Oil Prices Hold Above $100?

The total release coordinated by the IEA amounts to 400 million barrels, far exceeding the historical record of 182 million barrels after the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. The United States will bear the largest share, exceeding 100 million barrels.

According to reports, insiders revealed that if all is released to the market, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will drop to less than half, reaching the lowest level since at least 2008—when Trump promised to "fill it to the top" during his inauguration speech, the current reserve is only at 60%.

Regarding the distribution among other member countries, a European energy minister revealed that Japan will release 30.5 million barrels, Canada 23.6 million barrels, and Germany 19.5 million barrels; French officials stated that France will contribute 14.5 million barrels, while the remaining 32 IEA member countries will contribute smaller shares.

It is noteworthy that some member countries have not been very proactive in the process. Major European countries like Germany initially held reservations, believing that large-scale intervention would have limited effects on lowering oil prices while the Strait remains blocked.

German Energy Minister Katherina Reiche's statement was quite subtle—while announcing Germany's participation, she still questioned the effectiveness of the intervention: "We are still far from $110 per barrel, and the market seems to be responding actively."

Additionally, according to The Wall Street Journal, a CEO of a large American investment bank even warned a European minister that deploying "maximum firepower" so early could backfire, sending a signal to the market that Trump is losing confidence. However, governments ultimately abandoned resistance to avoid public disagreements that could lead to greater market turmoil.

Despite the unprecedented scale, the market remains skeptical about whether this intervention can effectively suppress oil prices. On Wednesday, oil prices rose more than 5%, with most of the increase occurring after The Wall Street Journal disclosed details of the IEA intervention plan.

Hamad Hussain, an economist at Capital Economics in London, pointed out: "The speed at which IEA member countries provide emergency barrels to the market cannot keep pace with the supply losses in the Middle East, even if hostilities end quickly."

Analysts believe that the release of 400 million barrels is only equivalent to about 20 days of transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz, a figure that raises widespread doubts about whether it can stabilize oil prices below $100 per barrel