Countdown to the largest oil release plan in IEA history! Japan plans to take the lead next Monday, with Germany participating in coordination
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that approximately 80 million barrels of strategic oil reserves will be released as early as March 16 to hedge against supply risks and stabilize oil prices. Germany also confirmed the release of 2.4 million tons of reserves. The International Energy Agency is preparing a joint release plan of up to 400 million barrels, which, if implemented, will become its largest intervention action in history
Major global economies are coordinating to ramp up interventions in response to the potential oil supply crisis triggered by the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
On March 11, according to NHK, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan will independently release its strategic oil reserves to mitigate the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on energy security. The release is expected to start as early as March 16.
According to the plan, Japan will release a total of approximately 80 million barrels from both the private sector and national reserves, equivalent to about one and a half months of domestic consumption. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan clearly stated that this move aims to hedge against supply risks that may arise from disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
On the same day, according to the Daily Economic News, the German Minister of Economy confirmed that Germany will release approximately 2.4 million tons of national oil reserves and participate in coordinated actions under the framework of the International Energy Agency (IEA), but specific implementation plans are still being refined.
These statements constitute a direct signal to stabilize the global oil market. Reports indicate that the IEA is preparing a joint release plan of 300 to 400 million barrels, accounting for about 25% to 30% of the total strategic reserves of member countries, which total 1.2 billion barrels. If ultimately implemented, this would become the largest coordinated intervention by the agency in response to soaring oil prices, far exceeding the previous record of 182 million barrels following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
Japan: Earliest Start on the 16th, Balancing Oil Price Control
In this multi-country coordinated intervention, Japan's response speed is among the fastest. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan requested domestic oil reserve bases to prepare for the release ahead of time on March 9, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi subsequently announced that the release plan would officially start as early as March 16.
According to the plan, Japan will release a total of approximately 80 million barrels from both the private sector and national strategic reserves. After the release is completed, its overall oil reserves will still be able to meet about six and a half months of domestic consumption needs. The national reserve portion is expected to start entering the market in late March.
Sanae Takaichi also made it clear that if crude oil prices continue to rise and are passed on to retail, the government will take supporting measures to ease the situation, aiming to control the average national gasoline price at around 170 yen per liter.
Germany: Participating in Release, Tightening Gas Station Pricing
While following the IEA's actions, Germany is also addressing the pressure of rising domestic oil prices. Minister REICHE confirmed that Germany will release 2.4 million tons of national oil reserves, with the United States and Japan expected to be the two member countries contributing the most in this round of IEA actions.
Regarding the domestic market, the German government is discussing limiting the number of price increases at gas stations to once per day and plans to implement stricter regulations on gas station competition. REICHE emphasized that specific information on the release timetable and gasoline price control measures cannot be provided at this time.
IEA Coordinated Action: Historic Scale
According to the Wall Street Journal citing informed officials, the IEA plans to release up to 400 million barrels; Bloomberg cites informed sources indicating a proposed range of 300 to 400 million barrels. Both point to the same conclusion: the intensity of this intervention is more than twice that of the actions taken after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. IEA member countries are expected to make a decision on the proposal on Wednesday (March 11). According to the rules of procedure, if no member country opposes, the plan will automatically take effect, but any objection from a country could lead to a delay.
