Trump: India will no longer buy Russian oil, Russia: No, India never said that

After U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with India, there were significant differences in the interpretation of the agreement's content between Washington and Moscow. Trump claimed that New Delhi had agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil, but the Kremlin stated that it had not received any relevant statements from India.

According to CCTV News, on February 2, U.S. President Trump posted on the social media platform "Truth Social" that he had reached an agreement during a call with Indian Prime Minister Modi, in which India agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil and instead buy more oil from the U.S. and possibly from Venezuela. In exchange, the U.S. would reduce its main tariff on India from 25% to 18% and cancel the additional 25% punitive tariff imposed last summer due to India's purchase of Russian oil.

In response, according to CCTV International News, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on Wednesday that Russia had not received any information from India regarding the cessation of Russian oil purchases. Russian Deputy Prime Minister and former Oil Minister Alexander Novak downplayed the potential losses, stating, "We only see public statements, and we will observe how the situation develops."

Analysts generally question whether India will completely stop purchasing Russian oil, believing that such a move would have significant economic implications.

India Remains Silent

On Monday, Modi confirmed the agreement with the U.S. on social platform X, stating, "I am pleased that products made in India will now enjoy a reduced tariff of 18%," but did not mention the issue of Russian oil. The New Delhi government has yet to make any comments on whether it will stop purchasing Russian oil.

Kremlin spokesperson Peskov, in an interview with RIA Novosti, stated, "We respect the U.S.-India bilateral relationship, but we also value the development of the advanced strategic partnership between Russia and India. This is the most important for us, and we intend to further develop our bilateral relations with New Delhi."

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak appeared relatively relaxed about potentially losing Indian customers, stating, "Our energy resources are in demand, and we often see this. Supply will always find demand because balance will be maintained."

Analysts Remain Skeptical

Evan A. Feigenbaum, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated on Tuesday, "I find it hard to believe that the Indian government would make any clear commitments regarding Russian oil. India will not simply abandon these relationships under U.S. pressure."

Feigenbaum pointed out that maintaining a symbolic option to purchase Russian oil reflects India's diplomatic autonomy and its ability to resist U.S. coercion, both of which are important factors in Indian domestic politics. He noted that while there are signs that New Delhi has been gradually reducing its imports of Russian crude oil, publicly blaming Russia has always been "an impossible option" for Modi.

Economic Impact is a Key Consideration

Moody's rating agency stated on Tuesday that considering the potential economic impact of completely stopping Russian oil purchases, India is unlikely to make a complete turnaround. "Although India has reduced its purchases of crude oil from Russia in recent months, it is unlikely to immediately stop all purchases, which could disrupt India's economic growth." Moody's pointed out that a complete shift away from Russian oil could tighten supplies in other regions, drive up prices, and lead to higher inflation, as India is one of the world's largest oil importers. This could increase manufacturing costs and push up consumer prices.

Analysts believe that due to the demand for cheap oil, the need to maintain diplomatic policy autonomy, and the desire to keep close geopolitical and defense relations with Russia, India is unlikely to completely terminate these purchases