Retail investors flock to gold and silver, while Bitcoin is abandoned

Against the backdrop of gold prices breaking through $5,000, a booming stock market, and a weakening dollar, Bitcoin, which was once seen as a momentum trading and currency devaluation hedge tool, has been absent from this feast.

Cryptocurrencies are less attractive as a safe-haven asset compared to gold and fall short of AI in terms of risk attributes, leading to a decline in their appeal to capital in the current market phase.

Bitcoin's price has stagnated, trading volume is sluggish, and long-term believers are turning to more reliable markets such as stocks and precious metals. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $87,000, down 25% from its October peak, and has dropped 6% in just the past week.

According to Bloomberg data, investors withdrew over $1.3 billion from Bitcoin-related funds in the past week, continuing the trend of outflows from cryptocurrency ETFs.

Theoretically, the current macro environment should be favorable for cryptocurrencies. Easing inflation and interest rates typically boost risk appetite, while a loose financial environment and rising geopolitical uncertainty have historically supported assets touted as hedges against currency devaluation. However, this time, BTC's price has not received effective support.

Funds Seek New Homes

In the safe-haven asset space, precious metals are attracting capital inflows as investors seek refuge from geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar. In the risk asset space, driven by AI demand, stock EPS has significantly improved, and tech stocks have seen continued gains.

In contrast, cryptocurrencies are less appealing as a safe-haven asset compared to gold and fall short of AI in terms of risk attributes, leading to a decline in their appeal to capital in the current market phase.

A report from JP Morgan last Monday pointed out that broad-based stock ETFs are recording the largest inflows on record, while the cryptocurrency market is experiencing outflows.

"Faced with these dynamics, it is indeed a difficult time for the industry," said Stephane Ouellette, CEO and co-founder of FRNT Financial Inc. "Cryptocurrencies are now facing many competitive themes—AI has attracted significant investment over the past year from an innovation perspective, while cryptocurrencies are now excluded from inflation trades. I believe Bitcoin needs to prove to participants that it can trade at least above $100,000 to achieve a meaningful continuation of the bull market."

Belief in Holding Quietly Erodes

This caution is reflected not only in prices. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin holders have entered a net realized loss phase, the first time since 2023. Even though spot prices have not collapsed, more investors are exiting to cut losses, indicating a waning belief.

Bitcoin's open interest is far below the levels before the October sell-off, when nearly $20 billion in market value was wiped out. According to Coinglass data, the futures contracts held for smaller tokens have seen even larger declines.

Much of this caution can be traced back to the sell-off that began in early autumn last year, when severe liquidations wiped out billions of dollars in cryptocurrency wealth, impacting even experienced participants. Many retail investors did not rotate within cryptocurrencies but chose to exit.

This stagnation of momentum is both a financial and ideological issue. The holding philosophy that once defined the retail base of cryptocurrencies has weakened. From NFTs to meme tokens, the speculative cycles that brought new participants into the ecosystem have either collapsed or lost credibilitySome speculative demand has migrated elsewhere. The prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have seen increased trading volumes, and the decentralized contract trading platform Hyperliquid has also experienced rapid growth, all attracting the same group of traders that once drove the rise of cryptocurrencies.

Macro Hedge Position Under Scrutiny

Recently, Bitcoin's significant underperformance compared to gold has raised questions about its status as a macro hedge tool. Even as global tensions escalate, Bitcoin, often described as digital gold, remains stagnant. "Bitcoin is unlikely to replace gold as the preferred safe-haven asset for investors," wrote Duke University professor Cam Harvey after the October pullback.

Analysts from Citigroup and cryptocurrency firm Tagus Capital have recently reached similar conclusions, noting that Bitcoin's inflation-hedging function is at best sporadic—more influenced by liquidity, risk appetite, and the movement of tech stocks, rather than a lasting connection to a weak dollar or geopolitical pressures.

What remains is a weaker, quieter cryptocurrency market, which, while still operational, is increasingly detached from its early sense of urgency and potential. Although the crypto industry has previously experienced long periods of silence and significant pullbacks, its absence this year, while nearly all other asset classes are rising, is particularly striking