Federal Reserve decision + China-U.S. data + tech giants' earnings reports! Global markets enter the "eye of the storm"

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January 26 - February 1 Weekly Major Financial Events Overview, all times in Beijing:

The primary focus is on "Super Earnings Week," where tech giants led by Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple will report their results. The core focus has shifted from traditional financial metrics to the monetization efficiency of AI capital expenditures and the recovery strength of hardware cycles; the performance of storage giants Samsung, SK Hynix, and the three US leaders SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology will directly validate the strength of the AI-driven storage "super cycle."

The macroeconomic theme is equally critical, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates. However, Chairman Powell's speech will set the tone for expectations of delayed rate cuts; the US PCE inflation data will provide the latest evidence of price pressures. Political and geopolitical risks are an "X factor" that cannot be ignored, with the announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman potentially forthcoming, ongoing developments in geopolitical issues such as Greenland, and the risk of another government shutdown at the end of the month will continue to inject uncertainty into the market. Additionally, the Prime Minister of Finland and the Prime Minister of the UK are expected to visit China.

Several industry conferences will be held intensively, including the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology Space Computing Power Seminar, OPEC+ monthly meeting, EU-India Summit, "European Fusion Energy" Conference, Asian Financial Forum, etc.

Economic Indicators

• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve will announce its January interest rate decision at 3:00 AM Beijing time on January 30, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to hold steady, with a very low probability of rate cuts in the first quarter, and the easing window may be delayed until after Powell's term ends in May. The US economic growth and stubborn inflation are delaying the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.

Analysts such as Jeremy Schwartz from Nomura Securities point out that the Federal Reserve may even delay the timing of its first rate cut until after Chairman Powell's term ends in May this year. Therefore, the core of this meeting lies in Powell's speech: how he explains the rationale for maintaining interest rates in the context of economic resilience exceeding expectations, and whether his statements about the future path will completely rule out recent rate cut options, thus solidifying market expectations for delayed easing. Another point that cannot be ignored is political pressure, as Powell may be asked whether the judicial investigation against him and criticisms from President Trump will affect decision-making independence

• U.S.-China Economic Data

China will release the official PMI data for January on Saturday, January 1st. The market will examine whether the manufacturing sector can maintain its expansion range despite the interference of the Spring Festival and will pay attention to whether the price index continues its improving trend. Zhong Yumei from China Union Pay pointed out that the December data has already shown positive signals of increased corporate willingness to expand production and the transmission of profit margins to downstream.

In addition, the industrial enterprise profit data for December is expected to be released on Tuesday, January 27th. According to the team led by Zhang Di from Galaxy Securities, the previous profit growth rate is under pressure, so whether this data can stabilize, especially the support role of high-end manufacturing, will become the focus.

On the U.S. side, the "Fed's favorite inflation indicator," the December PCE data, will be released on January 29th, and the December PPI data will be released on January 30th.

Super Earnings Week

• Tech Giants: Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, ASML, IBM

Next week, the U.S. stock market will welcome "Super Earnings Week," with giants like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, ASML, and IBM taking turns to report. The market focus will shift from mere revenue figures to the monetization efficiency of AI capital expenditures and the recovery of hardware cycles.

The focus on Tesla has shifted from financial data to advancements in FSD, humanoid robots, and Robotaxi technology. Microsoft and Meta will primarily address the question of "spending on AI versus making money." Apple faces rising cost pressures and urgently needs to demonstrate its pricing power and supply chain control. Additionally, the performance of ASML and IBM will validate the trends in semiconductor upstream and corporate IT spending.

• Storage Giants: SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate Technology, Korean Duo Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix

Next week, the three U.S. storage giants SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology, along with the Korean duo Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, will release their latest earnings reports. Under the AI wave, whether the logic of storage price increases can translate into profit growth for each company will be a core focus.

Samsung is expected to achieve a historic quarterly profit breakthrough due to DRAM price increases and will compete with SK Hynix in HBM4 supply and massive capital expenditures. SanDisk's performance will serve as a benchmark for testing NAND flash pricing power and AI demand intensity, while Western Digital and Seagate Technology will also benefit from this industry-wide prosperity.

• Oil Giants ExxonMobil and Chevron, Hong Kong's New Oriental

Additionally, U.S. oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron, as well as Hong Kong's New Oriental and Dongfang Zhenxuan, will also announce their earnings reports.

Next week's U.S. earnings reports will also include: ABB, American Express, Ameriprise Financial, Applied Materials, Arthur Gallagher, Asian Paints, AT&T, Atlas Copco, Blackstone Group, Boeing, Canon, Deutsche Bank, GE Vernova, General Dynamics, General Motors, Hitachi, LG Energy, Mastercard, Nokia, Nomura Holdings, Sanofi, Starbucks, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Texas Instruments, UnitedHealth Group, Visa, Volvo, and hundreds of other companies.

Financial Events

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: New Federal Reserve Chair nominee may be announced during the week of January 26 (Weekly Event)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed on January 21 that President Trump "may announce the new Federal Reserve Chair nominee as early as next week (the week of January 26)," with "four outstanding candidates" currently in consideration. Mnuchin had previously stated that Trump planned to make this decision in January, possibly around the time of the Davos World Economic Forum.

• Continue to monitor geopolitical risks and U.S. developments (Weekly Event)

On February 1, Trump will not impose tariffs on the European Union, stating that a "framework agreement" has been reached with NATO regarding Greenland. The geopolitical situation remains tense from Venezuela and the Middle East to Greenland, and a series of unconventional actions by the U.S. government are heightening global risk aversion. Geopolitical risks have become a key variable in the market and require ongoing attention.

• Trump announces "framework agreement" with NATO on Greenland, no tariffs on February 1

According to CCTV, President Trump stated that an agreement has been reached regarding future cooperation frameworks for Greenland and the entire Arctic region, and no tariffs related to Greenland will be imposed on several European countries on February 1.

• EU-India summit may announce trade agreement; EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the Russia-Ukraine situation

According to Global Times, in response to the pressures from the fluctuating U.S. trade policies, the EU is turning its attention to India. Bloomberg reported on January 21 that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated at the Davos World Economic Forum on Tuesday that the EU and India are about to reach a "historic" trade agreement, which is expected to be announced during von der Leyen's visit to India next week. Additionally, next week, EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation.

• Finnish Prime Minister Orpo to visit China from January 25 to 28

The spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: At the invitation of Premier Li Qiang, Finnish Prime Minister Orpo will make an official visit to China from January 25 to 28.

• UK Prime Minister to visit China from January 29 to 31

According to The Paper, on December 10, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiaqin hosted a regular press conference. It was reported that UK Prime Minister Starmer will visit China from January 29 to 31 next year, visiting Beijing and Shanghai. Can the spokesperson confirm this? Guo Jiaqin responded that China values improving and developing Sino-British relations and is willing to strengthen exchanges at all levels with the UK side. "As far as I know, China has not yet discussed specific issues such as the date of Prime Minister Starmer's visit with the UK side."

• Asian Financial Forum, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan to attend

Hong Kong will host the 19th Asian Financial Forum from January 26 to 27, adding a new "Global Industry Summit" segment for the first time. Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan will be one of the speakers.

• Risk of U.S. government shutdown again at the end of January 30

On January 9, after U.S. stock market hours, Trump claimed that "a government shutdown may occur again on January 30."

Government funding is about to run out again. On January 8, the U.S. House of Representatives passed three appropriations bills, making progress in providing funding for the federal government before the January 30 shutdown deadline. This will fund the Department of Energy, Department of Commerce, Department of Justice, as well as water projects, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and federal research projects, covering until the end of the fiscal year

• Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may announce election

According to CCTV International News, Japanese media previously reported that Sanae Takaichi has decided to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold early elections on January 23, the opening day of the Diet. If the House of Representatives is dissolved on January 23, there may be two election schedule options: one is to announce the election on January 27 and vote on February 8; the other is to announce the election on February 3 and vote on February 15.

• Days Intelligent Chip's future three generations of GPGPU roadmap to be unveiled on January 26

According to Shanghai Securities News from the domestic GPU company Days Intelligent Chip, the company will release its future three-generation product roadmap on January 26, covering innovative GPGPU architecture design, high-quality computing power infrastructure construction, and core directions for cloud AI training and inference products aimed at the internet sector. The industry predicts that from 2026 to 2028, the products involved in this roadmap will compete directly with NVIDIA's H200 and B200.

• China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: Upcoming "Star Computing • Intelligent Connection" Space Computing Seminar to Launch "Computing Power Star Network" Joint Promotion Initiative

To deeply implement the national deployment on developing new quality productive forces, building a strong aerospace nation, and digital China, and to seize the strategic opportunity of the deep integration of aerospace information and intelligent computing, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology plans to hold the 2026 "Star Computing • Intelligent Connection" Space Computing Seminar on January 26. The meeting will hold the launch ceremony for the "Computing Power Star Network" joint promotion initiative and the "Prospective Research Report on Space Computing Development (2026)." Additionally, Guoxing Aerospace will introduce the "Guoxing Aerospace Star Computing Plan," Zhijiang Laboratory will present the "Three-Body Computing Constellation," and the Beijing Spacecraft Design Institute will provide an outlook on the development of space digital intelligence infrastructure.

• OPEC+ to hold monthly meeting on February 1

OPEC+ will hold a monthly meeting regarding oil production policies among eight oil-producing countries.

• "European Fusion Energy" Conference

On January 27, the European Parliament will hold the "European Fusion Energy" conference to release the EU fusion strategy. Additionally, the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee will "draft" a cryptocurrency legislative proposal on January 27.

• U.S. Treasury: Trump to attend Trump Account Summit

The U.S. Treasury: President and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend a summit regarding Trump accounts next Wednesday (January 28), which will be live-streamed from the historic Mellon Auditorium in Washington, D.C. This summit will focus on the "Trump Account" plan, which will provide $1,000 for every American child born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028.

• State Council Information Office press conference, Ministry of Commerce introduces 2025 business work and operation situation

The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on January 26, 2026 (Monday) at 3 PM, where Vice Minister of Commerce Yan Dong will introduce the 2025 business work and operation situation and answer questions from reporters

• New Regulations for Drone Management in Shanghai to be Implemented in February: One-stop Completion of Drone Registration, Flight Declaration, Experience Zone Reservation, and Other Services

According to The Paper, to regulate the flight of civilian unmanned aerial vehicles in Shanghai and related activities, the "Interim Measures for the Safety Management of Civilian Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Flights in Shanghai" will take effect on February 1, 2026. The "Announcement by the Shanghai Municipal People's Government on the Publication of the Flight Airspace Range for Micro, Light, and Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles" has also been recently issued. The "Shanghai Low-altitude Flight Comprehensive Supervision Service Platform" will also be launched on February 1, allowing users to complete drone registration, flight declaration, experience zone reservation, and other services in a one-stop manner through the "ShenBan" APP, achieving "quick declaration and one-click launch."

• Central Bank's "Rules for the Cross-border Payment System of Renminbi" to be Implemented

The People's Bank of China has issued the "Rules for the Cross-border Payment System of Renminbi," which will take effect on February 1, 2026.

• Vanke's 5.7 Billion Medium-term Notes May Be Redeemed on January 28

Previously, the proposal for the meeting of holders of Vanke's 5.7 billion medium-term notes was released, including four redemption plans, with a maximum proposed redemption of 40% of the principal, scheduled for January 28.

• Yageo: Price Increase for Some Resistor Products; Panasonic: Price Increase for Tantalum Capacitors

Due to significant cost increases in the chip product line, Yageo has decided to adjust the prices of some resistor products starting February 1, with an increase of approximately 15%-20%. Panasonic has issued a price increase notice to customers, raising the prices of tantalum capacitors by up to 30%, expected to take effect on February 1, 2026