Which major developments could ignite market sentiment in 2026? A guide to the “AI catalysts” emerging from U.S. tech giants

As infrastructure investment continues to surge, Wall Street’s focus has shifted from a pure “arms race” to the question of commercialisation.

According to ZF Trading Desk, Bank of America said in a January 5 report that 2026 will be another pivotal year in which AI-related announcements could meaningfully move markets. Whether in chip technology, frontier models, user data, or distribution channels, their strategic importance is only intensifying. Against the backdrop of sustained infrastructure spending, AI capabilities remain a core asset and key valuation driver for large-cap internet stocks.

Bank of America outlined a series of potential headline developments that could reshape competitive dynamics and monetisation trajectories in 2026, acting as key catalysts for investor sentiment.

Base Case: Seven High-Probability Events That Could Reshape the Competitive Landscape

Bank of America believes the following developments have a relatively high likelihood of occurring in 2026 and are directly tied to the durability of major players’ moats and cash flows.

1. Amazon and OpenAI sign an “Agentic Commerce” agreement

The report notes that following news of Amazon’s potential initial investment in OpenAI, alongside Google’s significant progress with Gemini and agent-based platforms, the probability of an agentic commerce partnership between Amazon and OpenAI is increasing.

Any such agreement would need to be carefully structured to protect Amazon’s Prime ecosystem and could include advertising revenue-sharing arrangements between Amazon and OpenAI.

Analysts believe that a well-designed deal—particularly one that safeguards advertising economics at attractive rates—could help alleviate pressure on Amazon’s retail business, while moderately increasing competitive concerns for Google.

2. Google and Apple strike a mobile AI partnership

Gemini 3.0 has emerged as a leading frontier model, while Android’s AI capabilities are increasingly perceived to be ahead of Apple’s iOS.

Following an antitrust ruling in August that was favourable to Google, media reports suggest Apple is nearing an agreement to license Gemini to enhance Siri. Such a mobile AI partnership could accelerate AI feature development across Apple’s ecosystem while expanding Gemini’s consumer reach.

While partially anticipated, analysts note that a new AI agreement could reinforce investor confidence in the durability of Google’s search distribution and monetisation advantages, supporting valuation multiple expansion.

3. Meta launches AI video creation tools across its core apps

Consensus expectations point to Meta’s capital expenditures exceeding US$100 billion in 2026, implying a level of internal AI investment and capacity build-out well beyond peers—many of whom must also expand capacity to support large cloud businesses.

The report suggests that a portion of Meta’s AI capabilities may be dedicated to consumer-facing tools, including AI video generation.

Given management’s positive commentary on engagement with Meta AI and the strategic importance of limiting the appeal of competing tools such as Sora, analysts expect Facebook and Instagram to introduce AI video generation features in 2026. The rollout of compelling new creative tools could drive higher engagement and monetisation expectations.

4. Uber secures L4 autonomous driving commitments with major Asian OEMs

Uber’s CEO recently visited Asia with the aim of accelerating autonomous vehicle deployment across “more than 10 markets”.

The report suggests Uber could announce partnerships in 2026 with autonomous driving software providers such as NVIDIA, or with major new vehicle manufacturers, potentially including vehicle supply commitments for the Uber platform.

While such OEM agreements—possibly targeting deployment around 2028—are unlikely to materially alter near-term competitive concerns in the US, analysts see them as positive for Uber’s long-term L4 positioning relative to Waymo and Tesla, and as a catalyst for broader acceleration of L4 development among automakers.

5. Booking introduces chat-based booking functionality

While Booking already collaborates with Google on agent-based booking capabilities, the company has continued to invest in its own AI infrastructure as part of its US$170 million 2025 investment plan, and has indicated that new AI capabilities could be announced in 2026.

Given the need to keep pace with competitors, analysts see a direct launch of agent-based booking functionality on Booking’s platform as plausible in 2026. If competitive with peers’ offerings, such a launch could mitigate concerns around direct traffic erosion.

6. DoorDash expands autonomous delivery partnerships

In the fourth quarter of 2025, DoorDash announced a new partnership with Waymo to launch autonomous delivery services in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

While the initial rollout focuses on DashMart, the partnership could expand to additional merchants. With autonomous vehicle deployments expected to increase across multiple cities in 2026 and 2027, alongside rising investment spending by DoorDash, the report sees a high likelihood of additional autonomous delivery partnerships being announced in new metro areas in 2026.

Although analysts do not expect immediate financial benefits, new partnerships could strengthen market confidence in the long-term return potential of automation-related investments.

7. AI unicorn IPOs reset sector valuation benchmarks

Media reports from outlets including Barron’s and the Financial Times have identified companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI as potential IPO candidates in 2026.

Disclosures around revenue backlogs, growth rates, margins, and profitability timelines could have significant implications for public hyperscalers that are both partners and competitors. Public-market valuations will also serve as key reference points for AI investment valuation at AWS, Google Cloud, and Meta.

The report notes that private AI companies are reportedly valued at revenue multiples well above those of public peers, and that a successful AI IPO could act as a catalyst for well-positioned public companies such as Google.

Advanced Scenarios: Low-Probability Events That Would Alter Valuation Frameworks

Beyond the base case, Bank of America outlines several “advanced” scenarios that, if realised, would significantly shift perceptions of technological leadership.

Amazon acquires AI model technology to strengthen Nova

Amazon’s Nova model currently trails ChatGPT and Gemini. An acquisition or talent-driven transaction—similar to Meta’s move involving Scale AI—could rapidly eliminate concerns around Amazon falling behind in LLM capabilities, even if near-term financial returns are limited.

Meta licenses a closed-source enterprise LLM (Avocado)

Meta is expected to release the Avocado model in the first quarter of 2026. If the model is closed-source and demonstrates strong performance, enterprise licensing could create a new revenue stream and help justify Meta’s substantial AI capital expenditures to investors.

Google sells TPU chips directly to enterprises

If Google expands TPU availability beyond cloud-hosted services to direct enterprise sales for on-premise or hybrid deployments, it would blur the boundary between hardware and software leaders, elevate the perceived value of TPU technology, and potentially support valuation multiple expansion.

Airbnb partners with OpenAI or Google

Should Airbnb shift strategy and leverage its unique inventory to form an exclusive agent-based booking partnership with OpenAI or Google, the resulting incremental traffic could act as a meaningful upside catalyst for the stock.

Extreme Assumptions: Strategic U-Turns and Regulatory Black Swans

Finally, Bank of America highlights a set of “Big Stretch” scenarios—highly unlikely, but potentially market-moving if they occur.

Meta licenses external frontier models

If Meta’s in-house models underperform expectations, the company could pivot toward licensing external models to accelerate time-to-market and reduce costs. While this could boost free cash flow through lower capex, it would also raise concerns about Meta’s long-term technological competitiveness.

Amazon introduces ChatGPT or Gemini to Bedrock

Despite significant competitive barriers, allowing rival models onto the Bedrock platform to expand customer choice could be viewed positively by Wall Street, reinforcing AWS’s position as a neutral AI infrastructure provider.

The US relaxes restrictions on Chinese autonomous vehicle imports

Current regulations prohibit the import of EVs containing Chinese software or hardware. However, given sharply lower costs in Chinese AV technology, any regulatory easing would significantly reduce fleet costs for Uber and Lyft, materially improving unit economics.

Article source：Wallstreetcn