Understanding the "14th Five-Year Plan": Chief Economist Xiong Yuan of GUOSHENG SECURITIES takes you to decode the underlying logic of macro policies, from the semantic logic of policies to the forward-looking trend inflection points

The year 2026 is destined to become a watershed year in the history of the Chinese economy.

With the normalization of external frictions and the deep restructuring of global supply chains, the old logic of trade and growth is failing. The domestic economy has officially entered the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which not only marks the transition of a five-year cycle but also serves as the starting point for a dramatic shift in the Chinese economy from "scale dividends" to "system security and quality efficiency revolution."

Historical Reflection: The Five-Year Cycle of "System Upgrades" and Wealth Restructuring. Looking back over the past twenty-five years, each turning point of the five-year plans has been accompanied by a reconstruction of wealth logic. If you cannot understand the iterative language of policies, you will miss the coordinates in the changes of the times:

1. During the "10th Five-Year Plan" (2001-2005) the WTO Dividend and "World Factory": With China's accession to the WTO, the curtain on urbanization was raised, and infrastructure, real estate, and foreign trade became the main axes of wealth.
2. During the "11th Five-Year Plan" (2006-2010) High-Speed Growth and Scientific Development: The "4 trillion" stimulus allowed the market to witness the immense power of macro policy regulation, with finance, real estate, and heavy industry reaching a peak of frenzy.
3. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" (2011-2015) Transformation Pains and "Strategic Emerging Industries": Internet+, mobile payments, and consumption upgrades began to replace traditional manufacturing.
4. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" (2016-2020) Supply-Side Reform and "Deleveraging": The policy logic underwent a fundamental qualitative change. "Capacity reduction and deleveraging" began to reshape the industrial landscape.
5. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025) Security and "New Quality Productivity": From "carbon neutrality" to "semiconductor self-control," the macro logic shifted from "efficiency first" to "security first."

2026: Opening the "14th Five-Year Plan," why has the old script completely failed?

When "new quality productivity" transforms from vision to quantifiable indicators, when "population aging" shifts from a long-term risk to an immediate constraint, and when "central leverage" and "monetary anchor shifts" begin to attempt unprecedented breakthroughs—investors find that the old routines of focusing on GDP growth and guessing interest rate cuts have completely failed in the face of the complex nonlinear system of the "14th Five-Year Plan."

Today's anxiety is essentially a "collapse of logic":

1. You read that policies emphasize "stabilizing expectations," but you do not know how this will translate into specific liquidity support;
2. You hear about "counter-cyclical adjustments," but cannot see through the games behind local debt restructuring and fiscal expansion;
3. You see the grand blueprint of the "14th Five-Year Plan," but cannot translate those rigorous administrative languages into actual asset allocation.

As the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" unfolds, the situation targeted by macroeconomic policies is becoming unprecedentedly complex, and the rhythm and impact of policy implementation are increasingly difficult to discern. When central leverage, monetary anchor shifts, demographic structure inflection points, and global political and economic restructuring overlap, your "old map" can no longer guide you in the "new world." —— The real danger lies not in the absence of policy, but in using “ the map of the old era” to seek the “ exit to the new world” .

Why should you interpret the “ 14th Five-Year Plan” with Dr. Xiong Yuan?

Xiong Yuan, Chief Economist of Guosheng Securities. He is not only a disassembler of macro data but also an “expert in deciphering the semantics of Chinese policy.” As a PhD from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a postdoctoral researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, he possesses the academic depth to penetrate the underlying laws of economic operation. More importantly, as an expert in the Ministry of Finance's macro talent pool and a member of the Chief Economist Committee of the China Securities Association, he has been invited multiple times to participate in economic seminars held by the Ministry of Finance, National Development and Reform Commission, People's Bank of China, and China Securities Regulatory Commission. He is not only a deep witness to the policy context but also a participant in top-level design.

He has published commentaries on major policies on the front page of official media multiple times, and his frontline interpretations are regarded as a “barometer” for understanding policies. In the capital market, he is even more of a “practical king,” having been selected as one of the Best Analysts by New Fortune and Crystal Ball for several consecutive years, and he has won the first place in both the China Economic and Global Market Forecast categories of the “Vision Cup.”

He possesses a unique “ two-way translation” ability, deeply understanding the logical background of the “ 14th Five-Year Plan” : From practical experience at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to advisory suggestions from ministries, Dr. Xiong Yuan excels at penetrating the surface of administrative bulletins to reach the underlying thinking of decision-makers, achieving precise transformation from policy to investment:

He can keenly capture the subtle tilt of the central government on the balance between “ensuring growth” and “preventing risks” from the “paragraph adjustments” in the text of documents, identifying strong and weak signals in policy semantics.

He can not only see through visions but also materialize the ethereal macro goals into a series of observable and hedgeable investment indicators such as PMI, social financing structure, and exchange rate fluctuations.

He has personally experienced the cyclical changes of several Five-Year Plans and understands which old logics must be discarded and which new signals indicate the “long slope and thick snow” of the next five years at every critical moment of “system upgrades.”

This course is not about teaching you to “predict,” but to “understand.”

On February 1st in Shanghai, Dr. Xiong Yuan will guide you to dissect the opening logic of the “14th Five-Year Plan” in advance, teaching you to build a macro dashboard to cope with the next five years.

We will deeply explore:

1. Semantic Evolution Theory: Dissecting the core keywords in the draft proposal of the “14th Five-Year Plan”, identifying which are “gentle guidance” and which are “mandatory constraints that must be fulfilled.”
2. New Paradigm of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: How will China emerge from the “debt cycle” after 2026? What are the boundaries of central government leverage? What does this mean for your asset allocation?
3. The Game of the Impossible Triangle: How does the higher-ups handle short-term conflicts between “security, transformation, and growth”? How to identify the “window period” and “effort period” of policies?
4. Practical Dashboard Implementation: How to predict policy shifts based on leading indicators like PMI? How to grasp the "time lag" from the issuance of documents to market reactions?

The "14th Five-Year Plan" is not a distant number; it is the survival environment that every investor must face in the next five years. Truly mature investors do not seek safe havens when the storm arrives, but are prepared the moment the climate changes.

The door to 2026 is about to open. In this era filled with noise and misinterpretation, let us follow Dr. Xiong Yuan back to the foundation of logic, to see the truth of the market beneath the surface of prosperity, and to discover the future development trajectory of China's economy in the lines of policy.

Click the poster below to sign up for this masterclass, and enjoy early bird discounts for current registrations.

Warm Reminder

This course includes an hour of interactive Q&A, where students can discuss their most pressing questions with Dr. Xiong Yuan and receive face-to-face answers. Friends interested in this course can click on the image above to register. If you want to know more course details, feel free to scan the image below to consult the course assistant.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk