The year 2025 is coming to an end, and none of the promises made by Musk have been fulfilled

As 2025 comes to a close, reflecting on Elon Musk's series of grand promises for this year, from the popularization of autonomous driving technology to breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, and the reduction of government spending, the market finds that his track record of fulfillment is completely lacking. Multiple key timelines that this tech giant promised to investors and the public have not materialized by the end of the year.

In Tesla's business, which has the most significant impact on the capital market, Musk clearly stated to investors that by the end of 2025, Tesla's Robotaxi service would cover half of the U.S. population and would no longer require human safety drivers. However, the current operational reality is severely deviating from this guidance, as the service is limited to certain areas of Austin, Texas, and still relies on in-car safety monitors.

In addition to the unmet corporate targets, the government efficiency department (DOGE) led by Musk has also failed to deliver on its fiscal commitments. Despite Musk's vow to cut federal spending by $2 trillion, the latest data indicates that federal spending has not only failed to decrease but has actually increased by approximately $248 billion in the first 11 months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, under DOGE's oversight.

The scope of these unfulfilled promises is extensive, extending to the fields of space exploration and general artificial intelligence. Whether it is SpaceX's long-term vision of sending humans to Mars or xAI's technological prediction of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the year, both have been postponed. This systemic "over-promising and under-delivering" is prompting the market to reassess the credibility of Musk's future forward-looking guidance.

Robotaxi Coverage and Full Autonomous Driving Commitment Unfulfilled

Tesla's progress in the field of autonomous driving is a core focus for investors and one of the areas where Musk's commitments have deviated the most. During Tesla's second-quarter earnings call in July, Musk asserted to investors that by the end of this year, Tesla's Robotaxi service would cover half of the U.S. population. However, by the end of the year, this service is only operating in Austin, Texas, and even local residents rarely see these vehicles on the streets.

More critically, regarding the fulfillment of the "fully autonomous driving" technology, Musk reiterated in the fourth-quarter earnings call of 2024 and in multiple public statements in September, October, and December of this year that by the end of 2025, the Robotaxi operating in Austin would remove human safety drivers, achieving true "no supervision." Musk even claimed at the xAI hackathon in early December that "the issue of no supervision has basically been resolved."

However, the facts show that due to regulatory requirements in Texas and the current state of technology, as of late December, Tesla's Robotaxi service still mandates human safety monitors to be present in the vehicle. Although Musk himself released a video of riding in a fully autonomous vehicle, it has been confirmed to be merely a test run, and the service used by ordinary users has not eliminated human intervention.

DOGE Spending Reduction Target Ineffective

In the field of public finance, Musk, as the leader of the newly established quasi-government agency DOGE, has also underperformed expectations. After Trump's re-election, Musk promised to cut $2 trillion in "waste, fraud, and abuse" funding through DOGE. However, over time, this goal was first revised to $1 trillion and then further reduced to several hundred billion dollars.

According to market analysis, DOGE has not achieved substantial savings. Data shows that in the first 11 months of the 2025 calendar year, total federal government spending reached $7.6 trillion, which is actually an increase of about $248 billion compared to the same period in 2024. Analysts point out that many government contracts that DOGE claims to have canceled are still valid, and the data it released has been repeatedly criticized for inaccuracies.

xAI General Artificial Intelligence and Roadster Demonstration Delayed

In the field of artificial intelligence, Musk previously stated on the social media platform X in response to Google AI Studio's Logan Kilpatrick that his company xAI would achieve General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) by 2025. However, this milestone has not been reached within the year. According to Business Insider, Musk has postponed the timeline for achieving AGI to the coming years.

Additionally, the highly anticipated hardware products have also failed to be showcased as scheduled. Musk revealed on Joe Rogan's podcast that Tesla would demonstrate the long-delayed Roadster prototype by the end of the year and hinted at possible "flying car" technology. However, as 2025 comes to a close, the Roadster, which has been accepting reservations since 2017, has yet to be officially released, and the so-called flying demonstration has not occurred.

Mars Landing Plan Delayed

In space exploration, Musk's long-term timeline has also faced setbacks. As early as the 2016 Recode conference, Musk predicted in a conversation with Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg that if plans went smoothly, SpaceX should be able to launch a crewed rocket in 2024 and reach Mars by 2025. The reality is that as of the end of 2025, the goal of landing humans on Mars has not been achieved, and this prediction, like his 2011 statement about "sending people to Mars within 10 years," has also not come to fruition.