After breaking through the 4500 mark, gold is still in the "early stage" of a bull market? Wall Street prophet Yardeni: It is expected to hit 10,000 USD by 2029!
Gold prices have repeatedly hit new highs, rising approximately 67% this year, and have outperformed U.S. stocks for the 25th consecutive year. Ed Yardeni predicts that under the framework of the "Roaring 2020s," gold could rise to $10,000 per ounce by 2029, becoming a core asset that combines both defense and growth. Although it is relatively expensive compared to cash and bonds, there is still upside potential for stocks, with silver also strengthening in tandem
Against the backdrop of gold prices continuously hitting historical highs and outperforming U.S. stocks for a long time, veteran Wall Street market strategist Ed Yardeni has made an astonishing long-term prediction: gold prices are expected to soar to $10,000 per ounce by the end of this decade.
Driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, the spot price of gold reached a historic high of $4,500 per ounce on the 24th. As a safe-haven asset, gold has performed strongly in 2025, with an annual increase of about 67%. Continuous inflow of market funds has propelled this traditional asset to demonstrate remarkable resilience in a turbulent market environment.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, recently pointed out that gold continues to play a crucial diversification role in investment portfolios, and historical experience shows that gold's upward trends often exceed market expectations. He predicts that by the end of 2029, gold prices will reach the $10,000 mark, which aligns with his target for the S&P 500 index during the same period. This means that in the coming years, gold will not only serve as a defensive tool but may also become a growth engine on par with equity assets.
According to data from Sherwood and Koyfin, gold has outperformed the U.S. stock market over the past 25 years.
Looking back over the past 20 years, gold's return rate has reached 761%, while the S&P 500 index's return rate during the same period was 673%. Currently, the total market value of gold has reached $31.5 trillion, nearly seven times that of tech giant Nvidia. Although prices are at a high level, some indicators suggest that the gold bull market may still be in the "early" stages relative to historical valuation peaks of stocks.
New Target of $10,000
In his latest market outlook, Ed Yardeni has set a target price for gold to reach $10,000 by 2029. This prediction is based on his macro framework of the "Roaring 2020s," which posits that the economy and markets will experience a prosperity similar to the 1920s. Yardeni noted:
"In the past, when gold rebounded, its movements often exceeded expectations by a wide margin."
Although gold and stocks often diverge in the short term, Yardeni believes that the long-term trends of both are largely similar. In addition to his optimistic forecast for gold, Yardeni also holds a positive outlook for U.S. stocks. He expects the S&P 500 index to reach 7,700 points by the end of 2026, indicating about a 10% upside from current levels. ** He pointed out that the US stock market is expected to achieve double-digit gains for the third consecutive year, and there may even be similar returns in the fourth year.
Data cited by The Market Ear shows that gold, a seemingly "boring" asset, has become impossible for the market to ignore in terms of long-term returns. In addition to the past 20 years where gold's return of 761% significantly outperformed the S&P 500's 673%, the current relative valuation of gold is full of speculative space.
Data analysis from Top Down Charts shows that the price of gold relative to cash is at its highest level since at least the 1960s and has officially surpassed the peak of 1980; the price relative to US Treasury bonds is also at its highest point since the late 1980s. However, when measured by the ratio of gold price to the S&P 500 index, the current level is still 50% lower than the peak in 1980. This indicates that although gold appears expensive relative to cash and bonds, there may still be room for its rise in relation to stocks, and it may even be in the early stages of a rally.
Meanwhile, the bullish sentiment in the precious metals market has spread to silver. As gold's "cousin," the price of silver has risen 40% in a month and has never closed below the 100-hour moving average. The enthusiasm of quantitative funds to go long further confirms the overall strong momentum of the precious metals sector.
Global Strategy and Geoeconomic Outlook
In addition to commodities, Ed Yardeni also shared his views on the global stock market and monetary policy. Regarding technology stocks, he believes that trading in artificial intelligence (AI) may become more volatile, as direct competition among large tech companies will drive up spending, potentially broadening the market and benefiting more tech stocks beyond the giants.
In terms of emerging markets, Yardeni is optimistic about the Indian stock market. Although he expects the Indian stock market to enter a consolidation phase in 2025 after years of strong performance, he believes there is room for improvement in 2026, and if trade negotiations with the US make progress, it could even reach new highs.
Regarding global monetary policy, Yardeni expressed concerns about Japan's policy direction. He vividly compared it to:
“One foot on the brake (tightening monetary policy) and the other foot on the gas (fiscal stimulus) is not a good way to drive a car.”
However, he expects that Japan's policy actions will not trigger broader global pressures for the time being
