AI investment enters a critical validation period, and autonomous driving is gradually approaching... Goldman Sachs predicts the top ten industry themes for 2026

After years of infrastructure construction, 2026 will be a key year for the validation of AI technology, with market focus shifting from pure capital expenditure to the actual utility and commercialization returns at the application layer.

According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, analysts from Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research team, including Eric Sheridan, released the 2026 Internet Industry Outlook report on the 10th. The report suggests that with the increased usage of general large language model (LLM) agents and chatbots in 2025, 2026 may become a turning point in the field of consumer computing.

The market's focus will shift from purely paid subscription models to diversified monetization avenues, including advertising, e-commerce, and agency functions. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that AI technology must continuously deliver momentum and achieve capital returns in infrastructure, model platforms, and application layers to avoid falling into the "Trough of Disillusionment" in the Gartner Technology Maturity Curve.

In terms of capital expenditure, despite market concerns about "overbuilding," Goldman Sachs expects AI-related capital investments to remain high in 2026. The report indicates that over the past year, market expectations for capital expenditures (Capex) from Amazon, Google, and META for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by approximately 46% and 80%, respectively, with a total increase of about $250 billion over the two years. Whether these substantial investments in AI development can translate into visible profit returns will be a dominant factor influencing investor sentiment and company performance over the next 12 to 18 months.

Here are Goldman Sachs' top ten focus themes for the U.S. Internet industry in 2026:

1. Evolution of Consumer AI Landscape: The Rise of Generative AI, Search, and Agency Experience

Discussions among investors about AI are shifting from the infrastructure layer to the application layer.

Goldman Sachs points out that as the usage rate of general large language models (LLM) continues to rise in 2025, 2026 may become a critical point for changes in consumer computing habits. In addition to the current paid chatbot subscription model, the market will focus on the diversification of AI monetization models, including advertising, commerce, and the expansion of agentic capabilities.

Although products like Google Gemini have established market positions, the integration of "agentic AI," which can plan multi-step processes and make autonomous decisions, will further blur the lines between search and applications, potentially having a profound impact on consumer funnel behavior.

2. Blurring Boundaries Between Advertising and Commerce: Social E-commerce, Creators, and Retail Media

The boundaries between traditional advertising and e-commerce are disappearing, with both transitioning towards partnership models.

On one hand, social platforms are accelerating the development of social e-commerce by establishing better mid-funnel user experiences (such as AI shopping assistants) and backend logistics collaborations On the other hand, e-commerce platforms (such as Amazon) and non-traditional retailers (such as UBER, DASH, CART) are acquiring more advertising budgets through retail media networks.

Goldman Sachs expects that Amazon's advertising business will maintain an annual compound growth rate of about 8% between 2025 and 2030. The creator economy also plays a key role in this trend, as brands increasingly rely on creators to drive traffic and conversions.

III. The Reshaping of the Advertising Landscape by AI

In addition to cloud computing, digital advertising is currently the most mature vertical for AI product development and adoption.

Goldman Sachs believes that the positioning of various platforms in AI/ML will determine future advertising revenue growth and market share.

Currently, Google's Performance Max and META's Advantage+ are leading representatives of AI automation tools, significantly enhancing advertising efficiency through automated campaign creation, optimized targeting, and material generation.

With the advancement of emerging platform tools such as APP (Axon 2.0), U (Vector), and PINS (Performance+), AI is redistributing the profit pool in the advertising industry, with large platforms more likely to benefit from this process due to their data and computing power advantages.

IV. AI Investment Cycle: How the Computing Stack Evolves

AI capital expenditures remain high, with Amazon, Google, and META's capital expenditure expectations for 2025 and 2026 significantly raised.

The current market consensus is that capital intensity will peak in 2026, but it will be difficult to return to pre-2023 levels in the short term. Nevertheless, cloud service providers are demonstrating healthy returns on invested capital (ROIC) through accelerated growth in cloud revenue and a rebound in advertising business.

Investors' next focus will be on the drag of depreciation expenses on GAAP earnings and how companies can offset this impact through revenue growth and efficiency improvements, especially in the context of shortened asset lifespans such as servers.

V. Competitive Dynamics of Local Businesses

To improve user retention and engagement, on-demand delivery platforms like UBER, DASH, and CART are actively expanding product categories, focusing on grocery and retail sectors with lower online penetration rates.

Data shows that consumers who use multiple platforms have higher retention rates and spend three times more than single-use consumers.

At the same time, competition for delivery speed in the e-commerce sector is intensifying, with Amazon planning to double the scale of its delivery network by the end of 2026. Through faster delivery speeds and subscription services (such as Uber One, DashPass), platforms are striving to enhance users' lifetime value (LTV).

VI. The Future of Mobility Networks: Autonomous Driving, Affordability, and Adoption Rates

Discussions around autonomous vehicles (AV) mainly revolve around collaboration statements, urban expansion, and market share. Goldman Sachs expects that the large-scale adoption of autonomous driving will gradually unfold over the next 5-7 years, rather than happening all at once. During this period, the shared mobility industry will evolve into a "hybrid network" (where human drivers coexist with AVs) to meet global demand. UBER and LYFT are expected to participate in the growth of the AV industry through extensive partnerships.

Meanwhile, Waymo, as the leading AV operator in the United States, is expanding into more cities. With the scaling of dedicated hardware, AV costs are expected to decrease, thereby improving the affordability and penetration of shared mobility.

7. The Evolution of Interactive Entertainment

Interactive entertainment companies are increasing their touchpoints with consumers by expanding into new media and verticals.

Key trends may include: driving engagement through new media (such as Netflix entering gaming, RBLX launching Moments); emphasizing live entertainment and services (such as the integration of online sports betting); leveraging AI to improve content development efficiency (such as AI tools from RBLX and UBI); and lowering the barriers to creation through AI tools, driving the growth of user-generated content (UGC). Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. also highlights the industry's pursuit of scale effects and depth of content libraries.

8. Long-term Transition from Desktop/Mobile to Spatial Computing

Giants like META, Google, and Apple continue to invest in spatial computing, pushing the computing platform from mobile devices to more immersive interaction methods.

While this requires years of investment, advancements in hardware (smart glasses/headsets), software (developer tools), and connectivity (5G) are key.

Goldman Sachs believes that due to easier integration into daily life, the adoption rate of AR products (such as smart glasses) will surpass that of VR products after 2026. The gaming industry, due to its leading position in virtual experiences, will be the first to benefit from spatial computing, while e-commerce and online gambling will also gain from it.

9. Opportunities in the Health and Wellness Market: Network Effects and Consumer Adoption

In the post-pandemic era, consumers' focus on health outcomes has significantly increased.

This market is showing a trend of deep integration between hardware and software: physical hardware (such as smartwatches and fitness trackers) is continuously evolving and increasingly bundled with subscription services. For example, PTON has launched a new system that combines AI and computer vision.

At the same time, consumers are increasingly eager to track, share, and improve personal health data through wearable devices, creating a new network effect driven by this social aspect of health tracking, which is boosting the download and subscription growth of related applications and services.

10. Seeking Balance Between Growth and Incremental Investment

Entering 2026, companies are showing differentiation in balancing growth investments and profit margins.

Some growth-oriented companies will no longer solely pursue short-term profit maximization but will be more inclined to invest in long-term growth plans to maintain continuous revenue expansion. Meanwhile, the AI investment theme remains solid across the industry In more mature industries (such as e-commerce and online travel), companies need to carefully balance customer acquisition costs and profit trajectories in a turbulent consumer environment. Additionally, with the improvement of free cash flow, stock repurchase plans (such as LYFT and GENI) will also become an important component of shareholder returns