Signals that US stocks should be wary of: The consumption willingness of low-income and young demographics in the United States is rapidly declining
Goldman Sachs, based on real-time data from HundredX, found that under the dual pressure of the resumption of student loan repayments and concerns over a government shutdown, the spending willingness of Generation Z and millennials on non-essential items such as dining and clothing has significantly decreased. This trend is seen as an important early warning signal that could pose potential risks to American businesses and the stock market that rely on mass consumption
As an important part of the U.S. consumer market, young and low-income groups are tightening their spending.
On November 11, according to a report provided by Goldman Sachs analysts to clients, the consumption situation of low-income consumers in the U.S. is continuing to deteriorate. The report cites real-time consumption data from HundredX, indicating that the willingness to spend discretionary income, including dining, clothing, beauty, home decoration, electronics, and travel, has sharply declined among low-income and younger consumers—Generation Z and Millennials.
This data is collected weekly from tens of thousands of consumer feedback to measure the likelihood of spending in key areas.
Analysts believe that the sharp decline in purchasing willingness coincides with the timing of the "default cliff" for student loans that emerged at the end of summer. At the same time, the negative news cycle surrounding a potential government shutdown has also exacerbated consumer pessimism. These two factors together exert pressure on consumers' financial situations and future expectations, thereby suppressing their consumption behavior.
For investors, this trend is an early warning that cannot be ignored. Consumption is the core driving force of the U.S. economy, and the sharp reduction in spending willingness among low-income and young groups may signal a broader consumption slowdown, posing challenges to the performance and stock prices of related listed companies.
Trump: Every American will receive a $2,000 "dividend"
Against the backdrop of weak consumption willingness, on November 9, U.S. President Trump posted on social media that his tariff policy will bring "at least $2,000 in dividends to everyone," excluding high-income groups.
Wallstreetcn reported that the U.S. Congressional Budget Office has preliminarily calculated that the cost of Trump's "tariff refund" plan could reach $600 billion, far exceeding the expected tariff revenue of about $300 billion. Economists criticize this as an "irresponsible" approach that could lead to severe inflation similar to that caused by pandemic stimulus. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen hinted that the "$2,000 dividend" may be reflected in the form of tax cuts
