Europe's Fatal Weakness in the Global AI Competition - Energy!

Goldman Sachs' latest warning states that although the European energy crisis is expected to end by 2027, Europe still faces serious energy security vulnerabilities in the AI era, which could become a fatal shortcoming in its global AI competition.

On November 10th, according to Wind Trading Desk news, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest in-depth research report that the three entrenched vulnerabilities of the European energy system—dependence on fossil fuels, bottlenecks in low-carbon supply chains, and aging power grids—are collectively forming Europe's "fatal weakness" in the global artificial intelligence (AI) competition, severely limiting its data center expansion and overall economic competitiveness.

The report points out that Europe's dependence on fossil fuels is merely being reshuffled rather than reduced—from Russia to the United States and Qatar. At the same time, Europe's renewable energy, AI, and defense supply chains are heavily reliant on imported rare earths and magnets, and nuclear power is entirely dependent on uranium imports. Additionally, Europe's power grid is aging, decentralized, and vulnerable to cyberattacks, limiting its ability to meet the new demands of AI.

The bank warns that the increase in electricity demand driven by AI is strengthening the link between energy resilience and economic competitiveness. While cheaper and safer energy supplies are necessary, they may not be sufficient to restore the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries or significantly increase their meager 10% share of the global data center market (far below the United States' 44%).

Dependence on Fossil Fuels: Reshuffling Rather Than Reducing

The report states that the bank first conveys a seemingly optimistic signal: thanks to a significant increase in global LNG supply, the European energy crisis is expected to end by 2027. Goldman Sachs predicts that by the second half of 2027, European TTF natural gas prices will drop nearly 50% to €17/MWh, returning to pre-crisis levels.

However, this is not a reason for complacency. Goldman Sachs states that the reality is that Europe's energy dependence model is merely "reorganized rather than reduced." Europe will still import nearly half of its energy, in stark contrast to the United States, which has become a net energy exporter.

The past dependence was on Russia, while the future will shift to the United States and Qatar. The report predicts that by 2030, these two countries will collectively account for 55% of global LNG exports. This new supply concentration also brings geopolitical risks.

The report notes that recently, Qatar warned that it might stop supplying LNG to Europe if the EU's corporate sustainability rules are not amended. This means that the European economy remains exposed to the geopolitical games surrounding energy supply.

Dependence on External Concentrated Supply Chains for Low-Carbon Energy

In the transition to green energy and the AI era, Europe's low-carbon supply chains have exposed more severe external dependencies and concentration risks. Goldman Sachs emphasizes in the report:

First is the absolute dependence on rare earths and magnets. These materials are crucial for wind turbines, electric vehicles, semiconductors, AI systems, and even defense equipment.

Data shows that, in contrast, Europe's market share of rare earths is almost negligible (about 2%). Rebuilding a domestic supply chain in Europe is extremely difficult; developing a mine takes 8-10 years, and constructing a refining plant takes about 5 years Secondly, there is the "pain of uranium-free" in nuclear energy. Nuclear energy accounts for 11% of the EU's primary energy consumption (as high as 46% in France), but Europe does not produce any uranium locally and relies entirely on imports.

Goldman Sachs states that its supply chain is also highly concentrated: about three-quarters of the natural uranium used by the EU comes from Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

In the subsequent enrichment stage, European nuclear power plants still need to import 24% of their enriched uranium from Russia. This 100% reliance on imports places Europe's nuclear power lifeline firmly in the hands of a few countries.

Fragile Power Grid Infrastructure

Goldman Sachs states that energy security is not only about sources but also about reliable transmission and distribution. This is precisely the third major shortcoming facing Europe.

The report points out that Europe's power grid is generally outdated, with an average "age" of 50 years, nearing the end of its design lifespan. The fragmentation of the grid leads to significant and widening price disparities between regions, and the system is also highly susceptible to power outages (such as the recent blackout in Spain) and cyberattacks.

The rise of AI poses new immense pressure on an already strained power grid. As a pillar of AI infrastructure, data centers require a massive and continuously stable power supply, with an almost zero tolerance for power outages.

Goldman Sachs' report cites a survey indicating that over 90% of data center operators list power availability as their primary concern, with nearly half believing that upgrading the grid is the most important mitigation measure.

Goldman Sachs believes that clearly, Europe's fragile power infrastructure is becoming a significant physical bottleneck in its embrace of the AI revolution.