Goldman Sachs investigates the "Chinese Robot Supply Chain" including Sanhua: preparing for mass production of "humanoid robots" in the second half of 2026, with capacity planning reaching 100,000 to 1 million units per year
Goldman Sachs research shows that although large-scale orders have not yet been obtained, Chinese humanoid robot suppliers have initiated a "capacity-first" strategy and have upgraded from parts supply to modular solutions. The industry will closely monitor milestones such as the release of Tesla's Optimus Generation 3 to validate the prospects for capacity digestion
On November 7th, Goldman Sachs released a field research report on the supply chain of humanoid robots in China. The report pointed out that despite not yet securing large-scale confirmed orders, core suppliers have entered a "head start" phase, making extremely optimistic capacity preparations for the expected mass production of humanoid robots starting in the second half of 2026.
According to the Chase Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs believes that for investors, this means:
Clear Timing: The common expectation of the supply chain locks the outbreak point of large-scale mass production in the second half of 2026. This is an important investment time anchor.
Confidence Game: Suppliers are betting on the future of the industry with real money (land, factories, production line planning). This "capacity-first" strategy, on one hand, demonstrates the strong confidence of the industry chain in the explosive demand from end customers (especially leading players like Tesla), while on the other hand, it also contains the risk of idle capacity if orders fall short of expectations.
Value Chain Restructuring: Suppliers are upgrading from "selling parts" to "selling modules," indicating that the value of the industry chain is concentrating towards upstream integrated and modular suppliers. Companies that can provide integrated solutions from actuators to sensors and possess global production capabilities will have stronger bargaining power.
Key Observational Indicators: The report identifies two key events in the next 1-2 years to verify the industry inflection point: (1) Tesla's Optimus third-generation robot is expected to be released in February/March 2026; (2) Global humanoid robot companies will announce their 2026 order/shipping targets by the end of 2025 or early 2026. These will be the litmus test for whether the current optimism can be translated into actual orders.
Capacity First: "Military Exercises" for Large-Scale Mass Production, But Orders Await Confirmation
Goldman Sachs conducted research from November 3 to 6, 2025, on nine Chinese supply chain companies, including Sanhua, Topband, Rongtai, and Shuanghuan. The most critical finding is that most suppliers are actively planning capacity in China and overseas (mainly in Thailand, followed by Mexico) to support potential large-scale production of humanoid robots.
These planned annual production capacities range between 100,000 to 1 million robot equivalent units. This planning appears quite aggressive, as Goldman Sachs itself predicts that global humanoid robot shipments will only reach 1.38 million units by 2035. This reflects an extremely optimistic view of the industry's growth prospects among supply chain companies.
However, the report emphasizes that no company has confirmed receiving large-scale orders or a clear production timetable. The strategy commonly adopted by suppliers is "gradual ramp-up," meaning they will gradually expand production capacity based on the actual order situation. While this somewhat mitigates the imminent risk of overcapacity, it is undoubtedly a gamble based on expectations.
From Parts to Modules: Automotive Suppliers Seeking a "Second Growth Curve"
The report finds that the supply chain is undergoing a profound evolution. Suppliers are no longer satisfied with providing single components but are moving towards offering integrated modules. The product portfolio has expanded from single actuators to multiple categories such as sensors and structural parts, aiming to capture ambitious market shares in their respective fields.
A very obvious trend is that these companies are more or less related to the automotive industry. They are eager to expand their business into the robotics components sector to seek new growth engines while better leveraging their existing capacity and technological synergies in precision manufacturing and automated production lines. For example, Minth Group applies its precision molding and optical coating technology in the automotive field to robotic head components.
"Chinese speed" becomes a core advantage, with mass production targeting the second half of 2026
In interactions with customers, many companies are actively showcasing their technological capabilities and scalable production readiness. They emphasize rapid design-to-product turnaround capabilities and agile services as their core competitive advantages, aiming to gain and expand market share in the supply chain.
The report repeatedly mentions Tesla Optimus, Zhiyuan, Leju, XPeng, and other robotics clients, suggesting that these clients may be more inclined to rely on external suppliers to initiate mass production of robots. The widely anticipated mass production start time is collectively pointed to the second half of 2026.
In summary, Goldman Sachs' report paints a picture of the Chinese humanoid robot supply chain as "all set, just waiting for the wind." For investors, this is a field with high potential and high uncertainty, and closely tracking the order fulfillment situation in the next 18 months will be key to seizing this historic opportunity.
