McDonald's Q3 net profit slightly declined, same-store sales exceeded expectations, and "value meals" drove recovery in the U.S. market | Earnings Report Insights

McDonald's third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both missed market expectations, but global same-store sales growth exceeded market expectations, indicating that the company's efforts to attract cautious consumers through the introduction of "value meals" are paying off.

The latest financial report released on Wednesday shows:

McDonald's third-quarter revenue was $7.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%, but slightly below the market expectation of $7.1 billion;

The adjusted net profit for the third quarter was $2.31 billion, a slight decrease from $2.32 billion in the same period last year;

The adjusted earnings per share were $3.22, missing analysts' expectations of $3.32, compared to $3.23 per share in the same period last year;

McDonald's global same-store sales grew by 3.6%, slightly higher than the average analyst expectation of a 3.55% increase. In the U.S. market, same-store sales grew by 2.4%, mainly due to an increase in the average transaction amount per customer.

After the earnings report was released, McDonald's stock price initially fell in pre-market trading but has since recovered, rising by 0.9%. The company's stock price has increased by 3.2% year-to-date, lower than the S&P 500 index's 15% increase during the same period. CEO Chris Kempczinski stated in the earnings report that the company is achieving sustainable growth "in a challenging environment."

The "Value Meal" campaign drives recovery in the U.S. market, while international market traffic still faces challenges

In the third quarter, McDonald's same-store sales in the U.S. market grew by 2.4%, exceeding market expectations, primarily driven by an increase in the average transaction amount per customer. This increase is significantly higher than the 0.3% growth in the same period last year.

The company continues to introduce various promotional measures to reshape its reputation as an affordable dining destination.

It is reported that McDonald's has maintained the $5 value meal promotion for over a year and lowered the prices of certain meals in August, launching a "buy one get one free" promotion, covering products such as sausage biscuits and double cheeseburgers.

BTIG analyst Peter Saleh pointed out that the $2.99 snack wrap launched in July drove a surge in demand, but the growth momentum slowed in August and September. In September, the company reintroduced the value meal and began collaborating with franchisees to unify the national meal discount from the current 10%-11% to 15%.

McDonald's international market also performed well. International sales grew by 4.3%, with Germany and Australia being the main growth drivers. Notably, sales from restaurants operated by local partners surged by 4.7%, primarily driven by the Japanese market.

However, traffic data indicates that challenges remain. According to data from traffic tracking company Placer.ai, McDonald's overall traffic declined by 3.5% year-on-year from July to September, while the overall fast-food service category declined by 2.3%.

Although McDonald's value meal strategy has achieved short-term success, analysts express concerns about its long-term sustainability. Once McDonald's financial support decreases, maintaining significant discounts may pose challenges for franchisees