Minsheng Securities: Initiates "Recommended" Rating for CHINAGOLDINTL as Gold Prices Enter Right-Side Range

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Minsheng Securities has released a research report stating that it has initiated coverage on CHINAGOLDINTL (02099) with a "Buy" rating. The company is expected to achieve revenues of USD 1,119 million, USD 1,222 million, and USD 1,339 million for the years 2025-2027, with growth rates of 47.9%, 9.2%, and 9.6%, respectively. The net profits are projected to be USD 379 million, USD 460 million, and USD 544 million, with growth rates of 504%, 21.5%, and 18.2%, respectively. In 2025, the company's Jiamar Mine and Changshanhao Mine are expected to resume normal production operations, with ongoing project exploration and technological upgrades, leading to significant year-on-year performance growth and promising future prospects.

The company owns two high-quality mines: the Changshanhao Gold Mine and the Jiamar Polymetallic Mine. Before 2023, production operations were stable, and profitability steadily increased. After experiencing the impact of the tailings pond and slope in 2023, production is expected to gradually recover in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in 2025. The Changshanhao Gold Mine, located in Inner Mongolia, currently has gold resources of 158.57 tons and reserves of 15.02 tons. Surface resource extraction is nearing completion, but significant exploration results are expected in the first half of 2025. The domestic standard feasibility study report has been completed, and the international standard (NI43-101) feasibility study report is being prepared. The mine is currently in a transitional phase of underground mining, with completion of technological upgrades expected between 2029-2030, and transitional production is expected to maintain at 2.4-2.6 tons. The Jiamar Polymetallic Mine, located in Tibet, is a large copper-gold polymetallic deposit, with current copper reserves of 2.075 million tons and gold reserves of 55.7 tons. Following the tailings pond incident in 2023, the mining capacity was revised down from 50,000 tons/day to 34,000 tons/day. In the future, it is expected to benefit significantly from the "three-step" plan of tailings pond construction, mining license expansion, and surrounding exploration and development, restoring capacity to over 50,000 tons/day, with the latest exploration report expected in April 2026.

The report indicates that in the second half of 2025, U.S. inflation is expected to decline overall, with non-farm data often falling short of expectations and past data being continuously revised down. The Federal Reserve is likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, with further cuts expected in October. Accompanied by the catalyst of interest rate cuts, gold prices broke through the volatile market in September and entered a right-side range. Additionally, global central banks have significantly expanded their balance sheets after the public health crisis, coupled with the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. in July, which has raised the debt ceiling again, leading to a continued weakening of the credit of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds. In the current context of rising geopolitical risks and declining monetary credit, central banks around the world continue to purchase gold, having bought over 1,000 tons for three consecutive years. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings again in August 2025, marking ten consecutive months of gold purchases. The willingness of global central banks to allocate assets in gold is rising, and the gold price center is expected to continue to rise, with broad future potential