The Torn American Economy: High-Income Earners Celebrate While Young and Low-Income Groups Fall Behind

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the pressures faced by low-income and young groups in the United States are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Last week, the Federal Reserve and the chain restaurant brand Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US) both expressed their views, becoming the latest entities to point out the intensifying phenomenon of economic "divergence" in the United States.

After the latest interest rate cut decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the overall U.S. economy remains resilient, but he also acknowledged that this resilience is uneven—consumer spending is increasingly concentrated among high-income households.

"Consumer spending continues to grow, defying many negative predictions," Powell said at a press conference following the interest rate decision.

"However, this trend may primarily be driven by high-end consumers," he admitted, "even so, consumer spending remains the core pillar of current economic activity, its influence far surpassing that of AI (in terms of productivity improvements)."

As Powell made these remarks, economists generally believe that AI is a key factor helping the U.S. economy avoid recession. They pointed out that the investment boom in data centers and the chip sector has driven stock market gains, which in turn has led high-income households holding related assets to increase their consumption.

However, this "upper economic resilience" has not benefited all groups, and businesses targeting ordinary consumers have begun to feel the pressure.

During the earnings call for Chipotle Mexican Grill held last Wednesday, CEO Scott Boatwright revealed that the frequency of spending among the brand's young and low-income customers has significantly declined. This news caused the company's stock price to plummet nearly 20% the following Thursday.

"Earlier this year, as consumer confidence plummeted, we found that spending frequency declined across all income groups," Boatwright stated, "but since then, the gap has gradually widened, with mid- to low-income customers' spending frequency further decreasing."

The executive pointed out that households earning less than $100,000 contribute about 40% of the company's sales, and spending from this group has significantly reduced, particularly among customers aged 25 to 35.

"We believe this trend is not unique to our company but is prevalent across the entire restaurant industry and several non-essential consumption sectors," he added, "this group is facing multiple pressures, including rising unemployment rates, the resumption of student loan repayments, and slowing real wage growth."

Related data also supports this view. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for Americans aged 20 to 24 was 9.2% in August, up from 7.9% in the same period last year, reaching the highest level since early 2021.

Peter Saleh, Managing Director and restaurant industry analyst at BTIG, described the decline in spending among Chipotle Mexican Grill's young customer base as a "somewhat concerning" signal. He stated, "This decline seems to have suddenly appeared in September and October."

The phenomenon of economic weakness is not limited to Chipotle Mexican Grill. TD Securities reported that its exclusive consumer confidence survey shows a "severe divergence" in the U.S. economy.

"The willingness of high-income households to reduce spending has dropped to its lowest level this year," noted Tristan Margot, head of thematic content at TD Securities, "while mid- to low-income households continue to exhibit anxiety about the economy This sense of anxiety is also reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index of the World Federation of Large Enterprises. The index declined again in October, reflecting increased public concerns about employment, inflation, and borrowing costs.

Policymakers have taken note of these signals. Powell warned that the U.S. economy is showing signs of imbalance, with the economic resilience of the upper class masking weakness at the lower levels. He specifically mentioned the increasing pressure in the job market, including the large-scale layoffs recently announced by corporate giants such as Amazon (AMZN.US) and United Parcel Service (UPS.US).

"We are closely monitoring the situation as more companies announce hiring freezes or layoffs," Powell stated.

Although Powell emphasized that current data does not yet show a widespread deterioration in the job market, he also cautioned that the effects may take time to manifest. Meanwhile, anecdotal evidence of economic divergence is becoming increasingly hard to ignore, and a worsening unemployment situation could further widen this divide.

"Low-income Americans are cutting back on spending, while consumption among high-income groups remains stable," he said. "Therefore, we believe that this phenomenon of divergence does indeed exist."