Zhitong Decision Reference | The Market's Strength Still Relies on Technology to Drive It

[Editor’s Market View]

The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates as expected, and with the leaders' summit taking place, the month-end effect combined with the strict regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on institutional style drift has led to the Hong Kong stock market's performance not stabilizing in the last week.

This week, important data will be released in both China and the United States. On November 3, China will publish the October PMI data. On November 7, China will release the October import and export data. If the data shows a preference for decline, the downside space will be limited.

On November 5, the U.S. will release the ADP employment report, while the official U.S. non-farm payroll data originally scheduled for November 7 may be delayed due to the government shutdown. Recently, ADP data has been negative for two consecutive months, indicating a significant slowdown in the job market, which may provide key evidence for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path in December.

According to Xinhua News, the U.S. Supreme Court previously announced that it would expedite the review of the legality of most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and will hear oral arguments on November 5. This is significant, as Trump may personally attend the Supreme Court to listen to the oral arguments regarding the legality of the tariffs, awaiting the outcome.

The next vote in the U.S. Senate regarding advancing the appropriations bill to end the government shutdown is expected to begin as early as the evening of November 3. If the shutdown can be resolved quickly, it would be beneficial for the stock market.

Currently, market focus has shifted to pharmaceuticals, catalyzed by high-value innovative drugs welcoming new payment channels: the first commercial insurance catalog will be established in the national medical insurance negotiations in 2025. In both southern and northern provinces, over 90% of positive samples tested for influenza virus were of the H3N2 subtype. However, the impact of pharmaceutical stocks on the market is limited; the market needs to rely on technology to strengthen.

The countdown to the Tesla shareholder meeting on November 6 has begun, with the results of Musk's trillion-dollar compensation plan about to be revealed, and further disclosures on Tesla's robot progress are expected. If all goes smoothly, it will drive autonomous driving, and this week, Pony.ai and WeRide will debut on the Hong Kong stock market, starting the competition for the title of "the first Robotaxi stock in Hong Kong." There is also the direction of robotics.

China's nuclear energy technology has achieved a breakthrough, as the country has for the first time realized the conversion of thorium-uranium nuclear fuel based on molten salt reactors. Related nuclear concepts are expected to catalyze.

[This Week's Golden Stock]

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692)

In the first half of 2025, the company's total revenue was 7.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.02%.

Revenue from innovative drug products was 6.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, accounting for 82.7% of total revenue. In the first half of 2025, the product portfolio in the oncology field, including Amivantamab and Furmonertinib, achieved revenue of 4.531 billion yuan, basically flat year-on-year; the product portfolio in the anti-infection field, including Adefovir Dipivoxil and Metronidazole, achieved revenue of 735 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; the product portfolio for central nervous system diseases, including Inalizumab, achieved revenue of 768 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; the product portfolio for metabolic and other diseases, including Liraglutide and Pemafibrate, achieved revenue of approximately 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134.5%.

In addition, in the first half of 2025, Hansoh Pharmaceutical received an upfront payment of 112 million USD from MSD based on the agreement reached for HS-10535 (oral small molecule GLP-1RA). Amivantamab, as the first domestic third-generation EGFR TKI, has seen rapid sales growth and continuous expansion of indications Sales data from sample hospitals shows an increase from 18.41 million in 2020 to 1.784 billion in 2024, with an annual compound growth rate of 214%. In 2024, it is expected to account for about 28% of the total sales of the third-generation EGFRTKI, ranking first among domestic drugs. Amivantamab is actively expanding its indications related to NSCLC, currently approved for four NSCLC-related indications. In 2025, it is expected to gain approval for postoperative adjuvant therapy indications and treatment for patients with progression after platinum-based chemotherapy. The NDA for first-line combination chemotherapy for NSCLC is still under review. Amivantamab received approval from the UK MHRA for market launch in June 2025, becoming the first innovative drug from Hansoh Pharmaceutical to enter the overseas market. The company will continue to strive for EMA overseas regulatory recognition. As of the first half of 2025, the company has over 40 candidate innovative drugs undergoing more than 70 innovative drug clinical trials; in the first half of 2025, eight new innovative drugs entered clinical trials, including HS-20122 (EGFR/c-MetADC) and HS-10510 (PCSK9). Three new Phase III clinical trials were added, including the psoriasis trial of HS-20137 (IL-23p19) introduced from Quanshen Biotechnology, as well as global Phase III clinical trials for HS-20093 (B7-H3ADC) for bone and soft tissue sarcoma and HS-20089 (B7-H4ADC) for ovarian cancer. The overseas rights for these two ADCs have been granted to GSK. In addition, the Phase III clinical trial for Hansoh's TYK2 inhibitor HS-10374 for psoriasis is also ongoing, with data showing a lower risk of skin toxicity.

【Industry Observation】

Lithium battery demand is expected to maintain around 30% growth in 2026, driven by both vehicle and energy storage.

Vehicle demand: The Chinese market relies on the replacement of old passenger cars, the scrapping and updating policies for commercial vehicles, and increased consumer recognition, with an expected growth rate of about 20% in 2026; the European market is expected to grow by 25% in 2026 due to local automakers ramping up production, new model launches, and policy support; the US market is expected to see single-digit growth this year, potentially exceeding expectations next year.

Energy storage demand: In 2025, shipments are expected to exceed 550GW, with a growth rate of 75%. There is significant divergence in expectations for 2026, but a fair judgment suggests at least 50% growth, with even higher growth in the first half of the year (first quarter may see full production and sales increase by 100%), potentially driving a switch in lithium battery performance and valuation around the second quarter.

Lithium carbonate supply and prices: Supply-demand dynamics are significantly improving, with price centers moving upward.

Supply characteristics: From 2025 to 2026, a significant clearing of supply is not needed for price reversal due to rapid demand growth (annual increase of over 25%); there is a large difference in supply volume corresponding to different prices (20-25 million at 60,000, 50-55 million at 100,000-150,000), with an average of 350,000 tons difficult to meet neutral demand; 2025 will see a year-long destocking, with current inventory only about a month, and due to overseas mining transportation cycles, there may be risks of insufficient inventory; supply in 2026 will mainly come from Africa (e.g., Democratic Republic of the Congo) and domestic (e.g., Jiangxi, Tibet) flexible capacity.

Price outlook: The supply-demand dynamic is shifting from surplus to bottleneck, with trading strategies shifting to "buy on dips"; price bottoms and centers are rising, with the center likely higher than in 2025, and a low point may occur at the end of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, but it is unlikely to return to previous lows The fundamental price ceiling within a year is likely to be 100,000 to 110,000. If a shortage trend forms, prices may be even higher.

【Data Monitoring】

According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of open contracts for the Hang Seng Index futures (November) is 120,363, with a net open interest of 48,674 contracts. The settlement date for the Hang Seng Index futures is November 27, 2024.

The Hang Seng Index is at 25,907 points, with a dense area of bearish certificates close to the central axis. During the peak performance period of the third quarterly reports, individual stocks are showing significant adjustments. With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the Hang Seng Index is bullish this week.

【Editor's Remarks】

After the adjustment in October, the Hang Seng Index stabilized at a key support level, rebounding by 0.93% on November 1. The continuous accumulation of southbound funds in technology and consumer leaders further reflects the market's recognition of valuation gaps. The current trend of Hong Kong stocks is a reflection of the resonance between internal and external factors, with the Federal Reserve's easing and domestic policies working together. However, the pace of upward movement still needs to be observed for the effectiveness of policy implementation, and short-term fluctuations do not change the recovery trend