A new round of "Super Week" is coming! Multiple AI leading companies' earnings reports are the highlight, and the market is facing the test of "data drought."

The Zhitong Finance APP noted that after experiencing the busiest trading week of the year, investors are about to face another compact weekly schedule. With just over eight weeks left until 2025, the first week of November will see a large number of corporate earnings reports being released.

U.S. stocks closed strongly last week, with Amazon's impressive earnings report released after the market on Thursday driving tech stocks higher before the weekend, resulting in a cumulative increase of over 2.5% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq index last week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices saw relatively moderate gains, both rising about 1%.

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as expected, while the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents further eased trade tensions between the two countries. In the coming week, the theme of artificial intelligence will remain a market focus, with AI concept stocks such as Palantir (PLTR.US), AMD (AMD.US), Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US), and Constellation Energy (CEG.US) set to release quarterly earnings reports, along with dozens of other companies in the S&P 500 planning to disclose their performance.

In terms of economic data, the ongoing government shutdown may delay the monthly non-farm payroll data for the second consecutive month, making the ADP private sector employment data released on Wednesday the most important reference for the labor market this week.

The manufacturing/services PMI data released by the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global will also be key highlights this week, while the preliminary consumer confidence index for November released by the University of Michigan on Friday will also attract attention.

Powell states that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion

The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points at the October meeting was fully in line with market expectations. However, analysts at Bank of America pointed out that the "real heavyweight signal" came from Fed Chairman Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference, where his statement that a rate cut in December "is not a foregone conclusion" drew attention.

Capital.com analyst Daniela Hassoun commented: "The FOMC's stance is less dovish than the market expected, and Powell poured cold water on those who believed that a 25 basis point cut in December was a certainty, which weakened market risk appetite."

More challenging is the ongoing dilemma faced by Federal Reserve officials due to a near-complete lack of economic data, leading to a lack of basis for policy outlooks. Analysts at BNP Paribas "still expect the rate-cutting cycle to continue, including at the December meeting," while Bank of America analysts "maintain that the Fed led by Powell will not cut rates again."

Despite differing views, both institutions agree that the controversy surrounding the decision-making process is intensifying. Analysts at Societe Generale wrote in a report: "This will clearly be a chaotic and disorderly process, with Powell's control over the FOMC weakening and regional Fed presidents increasingly expressing dissenting opinions."

Last week's decision indeed showed a divergence: Fed Governor Stephen Moore advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid opposed it. As of Friday, at least three Fed officials had joined Schmid in questioning the necessity of a rate cut, and the market began to pay attention to this divergence—currently, traders' expectations for a 25 basis point cut in December have dropped from 95% a week ago to 63% Macquarie analysts pointed out: "This suggests that the market is also adjusting its expectations for the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates before 2026, at least during the current leadership's term."

China and the U.S. Reach an Agreement

On Thursday, President Trump and his trade negotiation team announced that they had "reached an agreement" following the highly anticipated U.S.-China talks, with terms covering a wide range of areas from rare earth metals, soybeans to fentanyl and port taxes.

After the meeting, Trump told the accompanying press corps: "If I were to rate it from 0 to 10, with 10 being the best, I would give this meeting a score of 12."

This round of agreement once again covers a wide range of areas and sets multiple goals: the U.S. side promises to halve the tariffs on fentanyl-related products to reduce the average tariff from 57% to 47%; the Chinese side agrees not to implement export controls on rare earths for at least one year, among other commitments.

A Bank of America report evaluated the agreement as "reducing the tail risks for both economies," but Macquarie analysts pointed out that the agreement is not "comprehensive" and mainly restores the status quo from early summer.

The market reacted differently to the announcement of the agreement framework following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Key issues, such as whether NVIDIA can sell its highest-performance Blackwell chips to Chinese customers, remain unclear, and Trump stated that this topic was not discussed during the talks.

These unresolved issues, as well as which elements of the framework announced on Thursday can truly be implemented, will be key factors influencing the market's subsequent trends