U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Apple and Amazon's earnings reports ignite the stock market, Nasdaq futures rise over 1%

1. As of October 31 (Friday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.24%, S&P 500 index futures are up 0.87%, and Nasdaq futures are up 1.43%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.47%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.32%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.26%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.34%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.38%, priced at $60.34 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.40%, priced at $64.11 per barrel.

Market News

Starting next week, US stocks will enter standard time, with opening and closing times delayed by one hour. From November 3 (next Monday), due to the US entering standard time, US stock trading hours will be delayed by one hour, with intraday trading hours changed to 22:30 to 05:00 Beijing time. In addition, starting next week, the release time for important economic data such as US CPI and non-farm payrolls will also be delayed by one hour compared to daylight saving time. The adjusted US stock trading hours are as follows: pre-market trading from 17:00 to 22:30 (Beijing time), and intraday trading from 22:30 to 05:00 (Beijing time).

US Treasury Secretary says US-China trade agreement could be signed as early as next week, Foreign Ministry responds. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jia Kun hosted a regular press conference on October 31. US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the US-China trade agreement could be signed as early as next week. Guo responded that during the meeting between the two heads of state in Busan, they discussed issues related to economic and trade relations and agreed to strengthen cooperation in these areas. The relevant Chinese authorities also introduced the results of the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations yesterday. China is willing to work with the US to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, based on the principles of equality, respect, and mutual benefit, to continuously narrow the list of issues through dialogue and consultation, expand the list of cooperation, and promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-US relations, injecting more certainty and stability into the world.

Goldman Sachs CEO warns: If economic growth remains weak, the US will face a debt "reckoning." Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned that if the US economy does not improve its growth rate, the rising debt levels could lead to an economic "reckoning." Solomon stated, "If we continue down the current path without improving growth levels, a reckoning will occur." "The way out of the predicament is through growth." The Wall Street executive also expressed that he believes the likelihood of an economic recession in the short term is "very low."Solomon's remarks echoed widespread concerns that the United States and other Western economies are increasingly reliant on debt-driven stimulus policies. This trend was particularly pronounced during the pandemic when massive government stimulus measures drove up consumer spending.

Michael Burry, the prototype of "The Big Short," reverses his stance? Subtly warns of market frenzy with "bubble theory." Michael Burry, who gained fame for shorting the U.S. housing market, seems to have issued a subtle warning to retail investors about market frenzy. He is the prototype for the Hollywood film "The Big Short," and he posted on social media: "Sometimes we see bubbles, sometimes we can 'turn the tide,' and sometimes being on the sidelines is the way to win." As Michael Burry posted on the X platform, more and more people began to question the financial soundness of the AI boom, which has led to a surge in the stock prices of relatively few tech companies. For example, NVIDIA became the first company this week to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion. Its market cap currently accounts for nearly one-tenth of the total market cap of the S&P 500 index, exceeding the GDP of India, Japan, and Germany.

Individual Stock News

ExxonMobil (XOM.US) reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations. This performance was primarily driven by increased oil and gas production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, offsetting the impact of falling oil prices. The earnings report showed that ExxonMobil's adjusted profit for the July-September quarter was $8.1 billion, or $1.88 per share, surpassing analysts' consensus estimate of $1.82 per share, marking six consecutive quarters of earnings beats. Revenue was $85.3 billion, slightly below the expected $87.7 billion. As the largest oil producer in the U.S., ExxonMobil has consistently emphasized its rich asset portfolio and advanced technology, which reportedly enhance oil recovery rates, allowing it to remain profitable even during periods of low crude oil prices. The average price of international benchmark Brent crude oil in the third quarter was $68.17, down about 13% from the same period last year. However, a series of acquisitions during the reporting period put pressure on its free cash flow.

"Hess consolidation + high-profit oil fields" dual drivers, Chevron (CVX.US) cash flow grows 20% counter-cyclically. American oil and gas giant Chevron significantly increased its oil production and cash flow after the profits from its $53 billion acquisition of Hess were consolidated for the first time. The earnings report indicated that Chevron's Q3 net profit was approximately $3.6 billion, a 20% year-on-year decline, but Chevron's adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were $1.85, exceeding Wall Street analysts' average estimate of $1.66. This American oil and gas powerhouse, along with one of its largest competitors from Europe, Shell, both reported stronger-than-expected results, and another American energy giant, ExxonMobil, also reported better-than-expected profits. Chevron's performance exceeded expectations, aided by the acquisition of Hess, which contributed to increased oil production.

iPhone sales forecast! Apple (AAPL.US) Q4 earnings and guidance exceed expectations, predicting double-digit growth in holiday season sales. Apple reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2025 and forecasted significant growth in holiday season sales following the release of new iPhones, helping to reassure investors that its flagship product remains a growth engineAs of September 27, in the fourth fiscal quarter, sales increased by 7.9% year-on-year to $102.5 billion, slightly above the previous average expectation of $102.2 billion. Earnings per share rose to $1.85, exceeding the previous average expectation of $1.77. The company's net profit for the fourth fiscal quarter was $27.46 billion, compared to $14.29 billion in the same period last year, with the decline attributed to one-time tax expenses. Analysts expect that Apple's new fiscal quarter (December quarter) sales will reach $132.31 billion, with earnings per share of $2.53, and Apple's performance guidance has exceeded these expectations.

Western Digital (WDC.US) embarks on a storage "super cycle," Q3 performance exceeds expectations. Western Digital's revenue in Q3 increased by 27.4% year-on-year to $2.82 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $2.74 billion by 2.8%. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.78, exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.58 by 12.9%. Adjusted operating profit was $856 million, higher than analysts' expectations of $756.4 million (operating profit margin of 30.4%, exceeding expectations by 13.2%), with an operating profit margin of 28.1%, up from 15.1% in the same period last year. Free cash flow was $599 million, a significant improvement from -$61 million in the same period last year, and inventory turnover days were 80 days, an increase from 76 days in the previous quarter.

Amazon (AMZN.US) Q3 performance exceeds expectations, AWS sales achieve fastest growth in three years. Amazon's Q3 net sales increased by 13% year-on-year to $180.2 billion, better than analysts' average expectation of $177.8 billion. By segment, AWS (Amazon Web Services) sales grew by 20% year-on-year to $33 billion, marking the largest increase since 2022, with year-on-year growth rate and sales both exceeding analysts' average expectations of 18% and $32.4 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, North American business sales increased by 11% year-on-year to $106.3 billion, and international business sales grew by 14% year-on-year to $40.9 billion. In terms of profitability, Q3 operating profit was $17.4 billion, unchanged from the same period last year; net profit was $21.2 billion, up 39% year-on-year; diluted earnings per share were $1.95, better than analysts' average expectation of $1.57.

Vale (VALE.US) Q3 revenue exceeds expectations, net profit surges 78% year-on-year. Vale's Q3 revenue increased by 9% year-on-year to $10.42 billion, better than analysts' general expectation of $10.33 billion. Net profit attributable to shareholders was $2.744 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78%, exceeding analysts' general expectation of $2.1 billion. Pro Forma EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) was $4.399 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%; adjusted EBITDA was $4.369 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%, mainly due to increased sales and improved cost efficiency. Vale expects that the comprehensive copper cost in 2025 will be between $1,000 and $1,500 per ton, lower than the previous estimate of $1,500 to $2,000; the comprehensive nickel cost in 2025 is expected to be between $13,000 and $14,000 per ton, lower than the previous estimate of $14,000 to $15,000500 USD.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) deepens AI footprint in South Korea: assists Samsung, SK, and Hyundai in building AI factories, Samsung may supply HBM4 chips. During NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's visit to South Korea on October 31, NVIDIA announced collaborations with Samsung Electronics, SK Group, and Hyundai Motor Group to promote the construction of AI factories. According to the agreements reached, NVIDIA will supply over 260,000 accelerator chips to help South Korea launch AI projects. Among them, NVIDIA will collaborate with Samsung to build a new generation of AI factories, marking a new era of integration between intelligent computing and chip manufacturing. Samsung's semiconductor AI factory will be equipped with over 50,000 NVIDIA graphics processing units (GPUs). Samsung stated that it is in "close discussions" regarding supplying NVIDIA with the next-generation high-bandwidth memory chip HBM4.

Nokia (NOK.US) receives $1 billion investment from NVIDIA, strongly enters the core AI targets in Europe. Nokia's strong rise this week highlights that this 5G equipment manufacturer and former mobile phone giant is becoming an important player in the European artificial intelligence sector. After NVIDIA (NVDA.US) agreed to invest $1 billion in the Finnish company, Nokia's stock price is expected to achieve its largest single-week increase since January 2024 and welcome its best month since 2013. According to the cooperation details, NVIDIA's chips will be used to accelerate the software development of Nokia's existing 5G and next-generation 6G networks.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 21:45: U.S. October Chicago PMI.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. total number of active drilling rigs nationwide as of the week ending October 31.

Beijing time 21:30: 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks.

Next day Beijing time 00:00: 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks at a banking finance conference.

Next day Beijing time 00:00: 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic participates in a seminar.

To be determined: CFTC releases weekly positions report