Goldman Sachs "Double Eleven" Observation: The earliest start time in history, AI significantly improves efficiency conversion

According to the Wind Trading Platform, as this year's "Double Eleven" shopping festival kicks off, Goldman Sachs analyst Ronald Keung released a latest consumer status observation report on October 21, 2025.

The report focuses on five key observations: the longest event cycle in history, the widespread adoption of AI tools, strong performance in early sales, the impact of a new round of subsidy policies, and ongoing competition in the instant retail sector.

The Earliest and Longest "Double Eleven," Extending the Line to Seize Opportunities

This year, major platforms have collectively advanced the "Double Eleven" timeline significantly. Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin launched their events on October 15, October 9, and October 9 respectively, setting a record for the "earliest" start in history, extending the entire shopping festival period to 31-57 days.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that this strategy will significantly bring consumer demand forward to October. Therefore, investors should not view November data in isolation when assessing consumption trends, but rather analyze the retail data from October and November together for a more accurate overall picture.

AI Fully Empowering, Efficiency and Conversion Rates Become New Highlights

The most significant change in this year's "Double Eleven" is the comprehensive penetration of AI technology. From consumers to merchants, AI tools are reshaping the e-commerce ecosystem. Major platforms have launched AI features based on large language models (LLM), covering multiple aspects such as search, recommendations, customer service, and content generation.

Goldman Sachs revealed the driving force of AI with detailed data in the report:

Alibaba announced that AI features have been fully rolled out, with the six AI tools launched significantly improving click-through rates (total clicks from recommendations +10%) and merchant ROI (+12%).

By extending the analysis duration of user behavior from 0.5 years to 10 years and increasing the processing instances from 1,000 to 100,000, the algorithm improved purchasing efficiency by 25%. Additionally, AI customer service has been adopted by 1.58 million merchants, saving an average of 20 million RMB in costs per day for merchants.

The report also noted that Douyin is achieving an in-app transaction closed loop through its "Doubao" chatbot, while JD.com is optimizing merchant experience using the "Yanshi" AI platform. AI is no longer just a concept, but a tangible core engine driving growth and cost reduction.

Strong Early Sales, but High Base and Subsidy Effects Need Attention

Although the early sales data released by various platforms show strong performance, with several brands achieving over 100 million RMB in sales in the first hour, doubling year-on-year, Goldman Sachs reminds investors to pay attention to the complex factors behind this. On one hand, this year's early sales compared to last year's later start create a "non-comparable" benchmark, amplifying the year-on-year data.

On the other hand, although the fourth round of national subsidies has been launched, its scale (69 billion RMB) has decreased compared to the same period last year (150 billion RMB), and categories such as home appliances are showing signs of slowed growth due to last year's high base effect.

Overall, this year's "Double Eleven" presents new characteristics in terms of timing, technology application, and competitive strategies. Although the macro environment and high base effects pose certain challenges, the large-scale application of AI technology is bringing new possibilities for e-commerce platforms to tap into existing stock and improve efficiency This is not only a feast of consumption but also a concentrated review of the commercialization of technology.