China Index Academy: In the third quarter, the average rent for office buildings in major business districts of key cities nationwide was RMB 4.55 per square meter per day, a month-on-month decrease of 0.33%

According to the China Index Academy, based on the survey data of the office rental index from the China Real Estate Index System for major business districts in key cities across the country, the average office rental price in major business districts of key cities nationwide in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.55 yuan/square meter/day, a month-on-month decrease of 0.33%, with a cumulative decline of 1.39% in the first three quarters. In terms of performance across different business districts, there are a total of 64 business districts where office rents decreased month-on-month in the third quarter, a decrease of 4 compared to the second quarter, accounting for 80%; 11 business districts saw a slight month-on-month increase in rents, accounting for 13.8%, while 5 business districts' rents remained unchanged month-on-month.

From the perspective of the macroeconomic environment, in the first three quarters of 2025, the national economy maintained overall stability, with GDP growing by 5.2% year-on-year. However, since the third quarter, both consumption and investment growth rates have slowed down.

In terms of consumption, the effect of the old-for-new policy has diminished. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the growth rate from January to August, with the monthly growth rate slowing for four consecutive months.

In terms of investment, affected by the continued decline in real estate investment, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to September shifted from a slight increase of 0.5% from January to August to a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year.

Exports continued to show a stable growth trend, with China's total export value (denominated in RMB) increasing by 7.1% year-on-year from January to September, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the growth rate from January to August.

In the service sector, the expansion motivation of enterprises remains insufficient. In the first three quarters of 2025, the added value of the service industry grew by 5.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In the first nine months of 2025, the business activity index of the service industry remained in the range of 50%-50.5%, with the index value in September at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to August, reflecting a weak willingness of service industry enterprises to expand.

On the policy front, the overall orientation remains positive. On July 30, the Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized that "macroeconomic policies should continue to exert force and increase strength as appropriate. More proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies should be implemented in detail to fully release policy effects. … Utilize various structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation, boost consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade." At the same time, the meeting emphasized "the need to unswervingly deepen reforms. Adhere to leading the development of new productive forces with technological innovation, accelerate the cultivation of emerging pillar industries with international competitiveness, and promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation. … Adhere to the 'two unwavering principles' to stimulate the vitality of various business entities."

Overall, the foundation for the current stabilization and recovery of the macroeconomy still needs to be consolidated, with weak leasing demand for office spaces in key cities, differentiated tenant demand across different industries, declining tenant leasing capacity, and a continued downward trend in office rents in key cities.

1. Rental Changes: In the third quarter of 2025, office rents in key cities decreased by 0.33% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 1.39% in the first three quarters.

Figure: Average office rents and month-on-month changes in major business districts of key cities nationwide from 2019 to 2025

Data Source: China Real Estate Index System

In the third quarter of 2025, consumption growth slowed, investment growth turned negative, and the expansion momentum of service industry enterprises was slightly insufficient. The incremental demand in the office market of key cities remained limited, mainly consisting of lease renewals and relocations. Due to the still weak leasing capacity of tenants, most landlords continued to use price adjustments as an important way to stimulate demand, leading to a continued decline in office rents. According to the survey data of office leasing samples in major business districts of key cities nationwide, the average office rent in major business districts of key cities in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.55 yuan/square meter/day, a month-on-month decrease of 0.33%, with a cumulative decline of 1.39% in the first three quarters.

2. Business District Performance: 80% of monitored business districts saw month-on-month rent declines, with relatively large declines in Hangzhou Shenhua and Chongqing Yangjiaqing

In the third quarter of 2025, among the sample of first-tier cities, 77.8% of business districts saw month-on-month declines in office rents, 13.9% saw increases, and 8.3% remained unchanged. In the sample of second-tier cities, 81.8% of business districts saw month-on-month declines in office rents, 13.6% saw increases, and 4.5% remained unchanged.

Figure: Business districts with significant month-on-month rent fluctuations in office rents in the third quarter of 2025

Data Source: China Real Estate Index System

In the third quarter of 2025, 64 sample business districts saw month-on-month declines in office rents, accounting for 80%, a decrease of 4 from the second quarter. Among them, the month-on-month rent decline in Hangzhou Shenhua, Chongqing Yangjiaqing, Changsha Wuyi Square, and Wuhan Wuchang Center exceeded 1.0%. In 16 business districts, including Beijing Asian Games Village, Nanjing Zhujiang Road, Guangzhou Pazhou, and Beijing CBD, the month-on-month rent decline was between 0.5% and 0.9%. In 38 business districts, including Changsha Furong Square, Beijing Wangjing, Tianjin Quanye Street, and Shanghai Zhongshan Park, the month-on-month rent decline was between 0.1% and 0.5% (inclusive). In 6 business districts, including Shenzhen Longgang Central City and Chengdu Chunxi Road, rents stabilized with a month-on-month decline of less than 0.1%, while in 5 business districts, including Qingdao May Fourth Square and Wuhan Zhongbei Road, rents remained unchanged.

At the same time, a small number of business districts saw slight month-on-month rent increases, but the increases were all within 0.2%. Among them, the Shanghai Huaihai Middle Road business district saw a month-on-month increase of 0.13%, while in Shenzhen Baoan Central District, Suzhou Huzhong, and 10 other business districts, the month-on-month rent increase was within 0.1%.

1. Rent Trends: Macroeconomic policies will further strengthen to stabilize the economy and stimulate the vitality of business entities. The demand and rent for office spaces in business districts concentrated with high-tech and other industries are expected to stabilize first.

In the context of slowing growth in some economic indicators in the third quarter, it is expected that macroeconomic policies will further strengthen in the fourth quarter to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, thereby stimulating the vitality of business entities. In the fourth quarter, the demand in the office market may continue to slowly release, with varying recovery situations in different regions and different quality buildings. The demand in business districts concentrated with enterprises in artificial intelligence, big data/cloud computing, information technology, finance, and business services is expected to recover first, and rents are also expected to gradually stabilize However, in the short term, the overall rental prices of office buildings in key cities may continue to decline.

Performance of Office Market in Key Cities

1. Demand Trends: Leasing cases in finance, TMT, and business services account for nearly 60%, with an increase in demand for spaces under 2,000 square meters

Table: Major leasing cases in key cities for the first three quarters of 2025 (partial)

Data Source: Zhongzheng Data CREIS (click to view)

Figure: Tenant industry distribution of office leasing cases in representative cities for the first three quarters of 2025

Data Source: Zhongzheng Data CREIS (click to view)

In the first three quarters of 2025, Zhongzheng Data monitored a total of 195 major leasing cases for office buildings, with relatively high leasing demand from the finance, TMT, and business services sectors, accounting for nearly 60% of the total leasing cases. Specifically, 52 cases were monitored in the finance sector, accounting for 27%; the TMT and business services sectors had between 20-40 cases each, accounting for 16% and 13% respectively; additionally, related enterprises in retail/trade, transportation/warehousing logistics, construction and real estate, healthcare/biomedicine, and education had monitored cases ranging from 10-15, each accounting for 5%-8%; other industries had a total of 31 monitored cases, accounting for 16%.

In terms of area segments, there were 100 monitored cases with leasing areas under 2,000 square meters, accounting for 51%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024.

2. Major Transactions: Number of transactions declines, but multiple large transactions drive total transaction amount above the same period last year

Table: Major transaction cases in key cities for the third quarter of 2025 (partial)

Data Source: Zhongzheng Data CREIS (click to view)

In the first three quarters of 2025, the activity level of the major transaction market in China was lower than the same period last year, with a decrease in the number of transactions; however, driven by multiple large transactions, the overall transaction amount achieved significant growth.

In the first three quarters of 2025, Zhongzheng Data monitored a total of 2,130 major transactions, a decrease of 60 compared to the same period last year. Among these, 56 transactions involved first-tier cities, with Shanghai having the highest concentration at 35 transactions, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou each had fewer than 10 transactions; 57 transactions involved second-tier cities, with Suzhou having the most at 7 transactions, and 8 cities including Chengdu, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Chongqing had 3-5 transactions each, while 15 cities including Xiamen, Xi'an, Nanjing, and Hefei had fewer than 3 transactions each; The number of transactions involving third- and fourth-tier cities is 59, with cities where transactions occurred including Jinhua, Foshan, Dongguan, Quanzhou, and more than 40 other cities. Among them, Jinhua and Foshan have a relatively high number of transactions, with more than 5 transactions each.

In the first three quarters of 2025, based on disclosed transaction amounts, Zhongzhong Data monitored a total of 133.6 billion yuan in block transactions. Influenced by large transactions such as the 50 billion yuan acquisition of 48 Wanda Plazas by the TPG investment consortium and the 10.8 billion yuan acquisition of Shanghai Bohua Plaza by China Post Insurance, the transaction amount increased by 37.4% year-on-year. Among them, the transaction amount in first-tier cities was 64.9 billion yuan, with Shanghai and Beijing each exceeding 20 billion yuan, and the transaction amount in Shenzhen and Guangzhou combined was about 14 billion yuan. The transaction amount in second-tier cities was 36.2 billion yuan, with Chengdu, Xiamen, Hangzhou, and Nanning having relatively large transaction amounts of over 3 billion yuan, while Suzhou, Changsha, and Wuhan were between 2-3 billion yuan. The transaction amount in third- and fourth-tier cities was 32.5 billion yuan, with Foshan exceeding 5 billion yuan, and Dongguan and Jinhua between 2-3 billion yuan.

Figure: Proportion of block transaction amounts in key cities in the third quarter of 2025 (by property type)

Data source: Zhongzhong Data CREIS (click to view)

By property type, high-quality retail and office properties remain the most favored. In terms of the number of transactions, in the first three quarters of 2025, there were a total of 81 transactions involving commercial real estate (commercial, office buildings, complexes, hotels), accounting for 62%. Based on disclosed amounts, the transaction amount for retail commercial properties was relatively high at 71 billion yuan, accounting for 53%, while the transaction amount for office buildings was 30.9 billion yuan, accounting for 23%. The transaction amount for complexes and hotels combined was about 13 billion yuan, accounting for 10%, and the transaction amount for industrial properties was 9.7 billion yuan, accounting for 7%. The transaction amount for other types of properties was a total of 9 billion yuan, accounting for 7%.

From the perspective of buyer characteristics, domestic buyers continue to dominate the market, with institutional investors having a larger transaction amount. In the first three quarters of 2025, based on disclosed buyers, domestic enterprise buyers accounted for about 89% of the number of transactions. By industry, institutional investors and local state-owned enterprises were relatively active in mergers and acquisitions, with the total number of transactions accounting for nearly 60%. In terms of all transactions, the transaction amount for buyers who are institutional investors accounted for about 70%. From the perspective of seller characteristics, real estate companies remain the main sellers in the block transaction market, with domestic real estate-related enterprises accounting for over 40% of the number of transactions and nearly 60% of the transaction amount