Apple makes a comeback! The new iPhone ignites the strongest upgrade wave in recent years

The iPhone 17 is driving this tech giant to achieve its strongest smartphone sales growth since the COVID-19 pandemic. This flagship product has exceeded market expectations after undergoing the largest redesign in years.

On October 19, media reports indicated that multiple indicators, including supply chain insiders, mobile operators, and customer wait times, showed that the early momentum of the redesigned version was stronger than expected before its September launch. Analysts from Bank of America recently cited data from Apple stores and operators, stating that the delivery times for the iPhone 17 are longer than in previous years, "which may indicate strong demand."

Citing Visible Alpha data, analysts predict that Apple's smartphone revenue will recover to a 4% growth in the latest fiscal year, reaching $209.3 billion. The growth rate is expected to further increase to nearly 5% in fiscal year 2026, with iPhone revenue reaching $218.9 billion. Previously, Apple's smartphone revenue declined by 2% in fiscal year 2023, remaining flat the year before.

Despite delays in AI feature releases and the impact of Trump's tariff policies putting pressure on the stock price of this Silicon Valley giant over the past year, market confidence is strengthening as Apple enters the critical holiday sales season.

Major Upgrades Drive Replacement Cycle

This year's significant upgrades in the iPhone's camera, screen, and battery are attracting more customers to replace their old devices. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management stated:

"It is fair to describe the launch of the iPhone 17 as exceeding Wall Street's expectations prior to its late August release."

He noted that the wait time for the new iPhone is about 13% longer than last year, which may indicate a broader "upgrade cycle." "When delivery times are longer, it usually means a better product cycle."

Francisco Jeronimo of IDC remarked, "This is clearly a very strong quarter for Apple. I don't remember the last time I saw people queuing outside Apple stores like this year."

He added that surveys of Apple's supply chain show that orders for the iPhone 17 are "much stronger" than last year's iPhone 16.

Apple will release its fourth fiscal quarter results on October 30, which will include sales data from the initial weeks following the launch of the iPhone 17. Apple no longer discloses unit sales, preferring to focus investor attention on revenue, with overall growth primarily coming from its existing user base.

According to Visible Alpha data, iPhone sales are expected to remain around 235 million units between Apple's fiscal years 2024 and 2026. By 2027, analysts predict that the company's flagship product sales will begin to exceed 240 million units and climb to nearly 260 million units by the end of this decade. Market rumors suggest that a foldable iPhone will be launched next year.

Reports indicate that the iPhone still accounts for more than half of Apple's annual revenue of approximately $390 billion. The successful launch of the iPhone 17 may help Apple turn around a challenging 2025, as this year's trade tensions have disrupted its global supply chain. **

However, some analysts have warned that market expectations for the new iPhone have become too high. Earlier this month, Jefferies downgraded Apple’s stock rating to "underperform," citing "overly high expectations" for iPhone demand