Danger Signals for AI: Growth of ChatGPT's Paid Users in Europe May Have Stalled!

Author: Dong Jing

Source: Hard AI

The benchmark product of the AI industry, ChatGPT, is facing critical challenges, with growth in European paid users possibly having stalled, revealing a significant signal: the monetization capability of AI is being tested.

On October 17th, according to Hard AI, Deutsche Bank stated in its latest research report that consumer spending on ChatGPT in the European market has nearly stagnated since May this year, suggesting that this "flagship product" of the AI wave may have peaked in attracting new paid users.

Although OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced last week that ChatGPT's weekly active users have surpassed 800 million, Deutsche Bank pointed out that its paid user growth has significantly slowed, and revenue growth still lags far behind streaming platforms like Spotify and Netflix.

The research report states that against the backdrop of OpenAI's valuation reaching $500 billion, close to Netflix's market value, its revenue scale and number of paid subscribers are far behind. This reveals the core contradiction currently faced by the AI industry—the huge gap between technological influence and commercial profitability.

Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid stated: “AI will undoubtedly change the world and enhance productivity, but the path to profitability remains unclear. The real challenge lies not in the algorithms, but in the business model.”

Weakening Growth Signals in the European Market

According to tracking data from Deutsche Bank's dbDataInsights team on the five major European markets—France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK—ChatGPT's monthly consumer spending growth rate has significantly slowed since May 2025.

Notably, although there were similar seasonal slowdowns in July and August 2024 (attributed to a decrease in student users during the summer), there was strong growth in June and a significant rebound in September.

In contrast, the performance in these two months of 2025 has been flat, failing to replicate last year's growth momentum.

Analysis indicates that this difference suggests the current growth stagnation may not simply be a seasonal fluctuation. Although the data only covers part of the European market rather than globally, and there may still be data volatility, this trend is undoubtedly worth close attention.

The Huge Gap Between Valuation and Revenue

Deutsche Bank's comparative analysis reveals a significant gap between OpenAI's valuation and its actual business scale. The report states,

• Netflix's market value is comparable to OpenAI's expected valuation ($500 billion), but it has over 300 million global subscribers, with projected annual revenue of $45 billion in 2025 and a price-to-sales ratio of 12.5 times
• Music streaming platform Spotify has a market value of $144 billion, with 276 million subscribers and an expected annual revenue of over $17 billion, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio of 7.3 times.

In contrast, according to data disclosed by OpenAI in April this year, its global paid subscribers number only about 20 million—this figure shows a significant gap compared to its valuation.

Deutsche Bank pointed out that while OpenAI's user growth is impressive (weekly active users have increased from 500 million at the end of March to 800 million), the biggest challenge for commercialization remains "how to convert this massive traffic into sustained paying subscribers."

The research report noted that the growth of AI tools in the initial stages often relies on curiosity and the diffusion effect of free users, but once entering the paid phase, retention rates and sustained value will determine the commercial ceiling of the platform.

Investors are highly focused on OpenAI's upcoming revenue disclosure cycle. Deutsche Bank believes that if paid growth continues to stagnate, the valuation system of the AI industry may face correction pressure.