From sports to AI, the U.S. market is "deeply trapped in gambling addiction," while Trump "adds fuel to the fire."

Recently, The Wall Street Journal published an in-depth analysis by senior financial journalist Ye Weijie, who believes that the United States is currently caught in an unprecedented wave of speculation, which has far exceeded traditional financial markets.

Ye Weijie pointed out that this AI-driven boom bears similarities to historical bubbles, such as the leveraged buyouts of the 1980s and the internet bubble of the 1990s. However, this time, the situation seems somewhat different. He believes that a nationwide "gambling mentality" is permeating all aspects of the American economy, politics, and even cultural psychology.

The core argument of the article is very clear: the breadth and depth of this speculative frenzy are unprecedented. Even more concerning is that Washington, which should play the role of a "brake," is now "pressing the accelerator." Ye Weijie bluntly stated that the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts, the Trump administration's relaxation of financial regulations, and even the direct involvement of the Trump family have all become catalysts for this speculative craze.

This phenomenon raises the question of whether this is a "new normal" in market evolution or the last revelry before a massive bubble bursts. Ye Weijie clearly leans towards the latter, warning that when everyone is immersed in the game of speculation, the ultimate outcome may be more painful than any previous bubble burst.

Nationwide "Gambling": An Ubiquitous Speculative Frenzy

Ye Weijie first painted a disturbing picture: speculative activities are no longer limited to traditional areas such as stocks, bonds, and real estate. He found that this wave has spread to all corners of society. Cryptocurrency, once a niche concept, has now developed into a behemoth with a market value of about $4 trillion, attracting countless followers.

Data further illustrates the issue. According to the American Gaming Association, last year, Americans wagered a total of $150 billion on sports events, a staggering 24% increase from 2023. This is no longer the entertainment of a few, but a phenomenon of nationwide participation. Ye Weijie even mentioned that gold, typically seen as a safe-haven asset, is now showing signs of a bubble. He believes that speculation has "integrated into today's political, economic, and cultural psychology," becoming a social norm.

Washington's Role: From "Regulator" to "Promoter"

In analyzing the causes of this frenzy, Ye Weijie directly pointed the finger at Washington. He cited a key argument: "The Washington officials not only failed to curb this speculation but instead fueled it." He believes that government actions are the core driving force behind this round of speculative heat. On one hand, the Federal Reserve's signals for interest rate cuts have injected a large amount of cheap money into the market; on the other hand, the Trump administration has significantly relaxed regulations across the financial system, opening the door to high-risk behaviors.

A typical example is the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the operator of the New York Stock Exchange, which made a $2 billion investment in the prediction market platform Polymarket. Ye Weijie interpreted this deal as "a bet on the speculative industry itself." Polymarket allows users to bet on almost any event, from sports games to political elections. Although the company has yet to report any revenue, its valuation has skyrocketed to an astonishing $8 billion This transaction not only bets on the future of cryptocurrency (the platform uses cryptocurrency for transactions), but also bets that the Trump administration will take a more favorable stance towards such businesses.

What is even more intriguing is that the Trump family is behind this investment. Donald Trump Jr.'s venture capital firm is one of the investors in Polymarket, and he himself serves as an advisor. This perfectly illustrates Ye Weijie's point: politics, capital, and speculation have become tightly intertwined, forming a self-reinforcing cycle.

Bubble or New Normal? The Alarm Has Been Sounded

So, how should we view the current situation? Is it a brand new "new normal" that integrates speculation into daily life, or is it a massive financial bubble? Ye Weijie raises this question in the article and provides his judgment. He worries that this "is a bubble, the duration and universality of which will amplify the pain of its eventual collapse."

His concerns are not unfounded. The article cites a warning from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report. The IMF pointed out that "the prices of risk assets are far above fundamentals, increasing the likelihood of a disorderly adjustment... The market seems to be complacent about changes in the situation." For an international institution known for its cautious wording, this is akin to sounding the fire alarm. IMF data shows that the price-to-earnings ratio of S&P 500 constituent companies has reached its highest level since 1990.

Ye Weijie also lists some typical bubble behaviors: some poorly performing small companies are going public; traditional enterprises are buying cryptocurrencies through bond and stock issuance, transforming themselves into "cryptocurrency asset management companies"; even among tech giants, similar "circular financing" phenomena have emerged, such as NVIDIA investing in OpenAI, OpenAI purchasing computing power from Oracle, and Oracle buying chips from NVIDIA. As Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg admitted, he would rather "waste hundreds of billions of dollars" than "lose an edge" in the AI race. This reckless investment without regard for cost is a reflection of market frenzy.

Future Risks and Predictions

Ye Weijie makes predictions about future trends. He does not specify when the bubble will burst, but he hints that when the government itself becomes a "catalyst" for speculation, the fragility of the entire financial system is greatly amplified. It is like a race car without brakes, accelerating wildly while heading towards a cliff.

He suggests that investors and policymakers must confront this systemic risk. When the frenzy of sports betting, political forecasting, and AI concept stocks intertwines, driven by cheap credit and relaxed regulations, the collapse of any one link could trigger a chain reaction.

He points out that the United States is in the midst of an unprecedented nationwide speculative frenzy driven by political forces. This is not just a financial issue, but a profound social and political problem. If this frenzy ultimately spirals out of control, its potential destructive impact may far exceed anyone's imagination