China's September CPI year-on-year -0.3%, previous value -0.4%, core CPI's increase returns to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months

China's September CPI year-on-year -0.3%, previous value -0.4%. China's September PPI year-on-year -2.3%, previous value -2.9%.

China's September core CPI has risen to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. National Bureau of Statistics: In September, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion, and the first time in nearly 19 months that the increase has returned to 1%.

Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the CPI and PPI data for September 2025:

In September, the overall operation of the consumer market was stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.1% month-on-month and falling by 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion. The construction of a unified national market is advancing deeply, the market competition order continues to optimize, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month; it fell by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month.

1. CPI turned from flat to rising month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase of core CPI rebounded to 1%

CPI month-on-month has rebounded from flat last month to an increase of 0.1%. Among them, food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to last month, affecting the CPI month-on-month increase by about 0.13 percentage points. Among food, prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef all showed seasonal increases, with increases ranging from 0.9% to 6.1%; pork and aquatic products were in sufficient supply, with prices falling by 0.7% and 1.8% respectively. The prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 0.5%, affecting the CPI month-on-month increase by about 0.12 percentage points, among which domestic gold jewelry prices rose by 6.5% due to the rise in international gold prices; clothing prices rose by 0.8% due to the new autumn collection; prices of durable consumer goods, household appliances, and daily household items rose by 0.9%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively. Affected by the decline in service and energy prices, the CPI month-on-month increase was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Service prices fell by 0.3%, affecting the CPI month-on-month decrease by about 0.12 percentage points. Among them, due to the end of summer and the overlap of the Mid-Autumn Festival with previous years, prices for plane tickets, hotel accommodations, and tourism fell by 13.8%, 7.4%, and 6.1% respectively, collectively affecting the CPI month-on-month decrease by about 0.17 percentage points. Energy prices fell by 0.8%, with domestic gasoline prices falling by 1.7% due to changes in international oil prices.

CPI fell by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. The year-on-year decline in CPI is mainly due to the tail effect. In this month's CPI year-on-year change of -0.3%, the tail effect accounted for about -0.8 percentage points, while the new impact of price changes this year was about 0.5 percentage points. By category, food and energy prices fell. Among them, food prices fell by 4.4%, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month, affecting the CPI year-on-year decrease by about 0.83 percentage points, which is the main factor affecting the year-on-year decline of CPI. Among food, prices of pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits fell by 17.0%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 4.2% respectively, collectively affecting the CPI year-on-year decrease by about 0.78 percentage points; prices of beef and lamb rose by 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, with lamb prices rising for the first time after 44 consecutive months of decline Energy prices fell by 2.7%, impacting the year-on-year CPI decline by approximately 0.20 percentage points. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase, and the first time in nearly 19 months that the increase returned to 1%. Among these, the prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 1.8%, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. Within industrial consumer goods, the prices of gold jewelry and platinum jewelry rose by 42.1% and 33.6%, respectively, while the prices of household appliances, daily household goods, and communication tools rose by 5.5%, 3.2%, and 1.5%, respectively, all showing an increase. Service prices rose by 0.6%, with a relatively stable increase, where medical services and household services rose by 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively, while hotel accommodation and airfare prices fell by 1.5% and 1.7%.

II. PPI remained flat month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline continuing to narrow

The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months. The main characteristics of this month's PPI operation are as follows: first, the improvement in supply and demand structure has led to a significant stabilization of prices in some industries. The price of coal processing rose by 3.8% month-on-month, the price of coal mining and washing rose by 2.5%, and the price of black metal smelting and rolling increased by 0.2%, all rising for two consecutive months. The price of photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing changed from a decrease of 0.2% last month to an increase of 0.8%; the prices of non-metallic mineral products and lithium-ion battery manufacturing fell by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points compared to last month. Second, external factors influenced the domestic oil-related industry prices to decline month-on-month. The decline in international oil prices led to a month-on-month decrease in domestic oil-related industry prices. Specifically, the price of oil extraction fell by 2.7%, the price of refined petroleum products manufacturing fell by 1.5%, the price of organic chemical raw materials manufacturing fell by 0.6%, and the price of chemical fiber manufacturing fell by 0.2%.

The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month. In addition to the impact of a lower comparison base from the same period last year, the effects of various macro policies in China continue to manifest, with some industry prices showing positive changes. First, the deepening construction of a unified national market has led to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in related industries. The effectiveness of capacity governance in some industries has become apparent, and the market competition order continues to optimize, resulting in a narrowing of year-on-year price declines. The price declines in coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, battery manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products narrowed by 8.3, 3.4, 3.0, 2.4, 0.5, and 0.4 percentage points compared to last month, respectively. The downward impact of these six industries on the year-on-year PPI decreased by approximately 0.34 percentage points compared to last month. Second, the upgrading of industrial structure and the release of consumption potential have driven year-on-year price increases in related industries. The construction of a modern industrial system is accelerating, with positive developments in the high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing, and market demand steadily expanding. The price of aircraft manufacturing rose by 1.4% year-on-year, the price of electronic special materials manufacturing rose by 1.2%, the price of waste resource comprehensive utilization rose by 0.9%, and the price of wearable smart device manufacturing rose by 0.1%. The effects of policies to boost consumption continue to manifest, with the release of quality and upgraded consumption demand, leading to a 14.7% increase in the price of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing, a 4.0% increase in the price of sports balls manufacturing, and a 1.8% increase in the price of nutritional food manufacturing