Morgan Stanley's Tesla bull Jonas outlines the "extraterrestrial economy" pie: it will exceed $110 trillion by 2045

After successfully predicting the rise of Tesla and SpaceX, one of Wall Street's most renowned automotive analysts is urging investors to shift their focus from the ground to the sky, and even further into the future.

Morgan Stanley's star analyst Adam Jonas is painting a new trillion-dollar investment blueprint, centered around a grand concept he calls the "extraterrestrial economy." He believes that a new economic realm driven by Physical AI, encompassing flying cars, humanoid robots, and brain-computer interfaces, will be a significant opportunity defining the next era after the internet.

On October 13th, The Information reported that Morgan Stanley has appointed Jonas to a newly established position—Global Physical AI and Robotics Strategist. Jonas immediately threw out his signature bold prediction: by 2045, the scale of the "extraterrestrial economy" will exceed today's approximately $110 trillion global economy. Among these, the low-altitude travel market, composed solely of electric helicopters, is expected to generate annual revenues exceeding $4 trillion by 2040.

However, this forward-looking vision has also raised doubts in the market. Jonas admits that some clients think he is "crazy," looking at him with monstrous gazes. But Jonas is not surprised by this; he firmly believes that the impact of Physical AI on the world will be no less than the invention of electricity and will reshape almost all industrial sectors from agriculture to aviation.

New Battleground: From Automobiles to Physical AI

Jonas's new role marks a significant shift in his professional focus. He defines "Physical AI" as "anything that can move, navigate, and manipulate three-dimensional space." This shift officially took effect in August of this year, after Jonas, as an automotive industry analyst, had begun frequently questioning automotive executives about Physical AI product planning in his research and conference calls.

"Discussing a world without Physical AI is like discussing a world without electricity," Jonas stated.

He believes this is not just about defining markets or economies, but about defining the direction of civilization. Morgan Stanley has also released a list of companies called "Humanoid Robot 100," highlighting its focus on this field.

Trillion-Dollar Blueprint: Sky and "Extraterrestrial Economy"

Jonas's grand prediction is based on observations of the current inefficiency in space utilization. He mathematically extrapolates using the example of commercial flights in the sky, pointing out that at any given time, the total number of people in the air worldwide is roughly equivalent to the population of a city like Houston.

"Above the entire Earth, there are only as many people as in Kansas City. That's hardly anything," he said, believing that this "vast sky" is the upcoming battleground.

He predicts that within the next one to two decades, electric helicopters (i.e., electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles, eVTOL) will transport paying passengers along invisible aerial corridors above cities, thus giving rise to a vibrant new era of low-altitude transportation.

History Repeating? From Doubt to Adoration

Jonas is no stranger to the current skepticism. He recalls that in 2011, when he publicly predicted that Tesla's stock price would double to $70, the industry generally considered him "complacent."

Similarly, when he began researching SpaceX and autonomous vehicles, the reaction from clients was, "That's too crazy." However, these seemingly unconventional views were ultimately validated by the market.

Jonas believes history is repeating itself. He states that while some clients only care about this week's or this quarter's earnings, there are already those who are starting to build trading strategies based on his long-term vision. "In a way, we are trying to give people's brains a shock," he said.

He believes that over time, clients will gradually understand and accept this new trend, just as they did with his views on Tesla and autonomous driving back in the day. Jonas's optimism is not purely a castle in the air. He points out that a series of real-world advancements are supporting his theory.

Reports indicate that electric air taxi developers Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation are expected to receive federal certification next year to begin commercial passenger flights.

In the robotics field, Tesla, Google-backed Apptronik, and China's XPeng have all released more advanced humanoid robots and plan to commercialize them soon.

Additionally, Waymo and Tesla's autonomous taxis have been deployed in more cities across the U.S., and the large-scale use of drones on the battlefield in Ukraine has completely changed the face of modern warfare