The sharp decline in US stocks raises concerns about a downturn, with differing opinions on Wall Street

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, influenced by the escalating risks of the trade war and the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown, market sentiment has rapidly deteriorated, leading to a "Black Friday" for U.S. stocks. Data shows that the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 2.71% and 3.56%, respectively, marking the largest single-day declines since April; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.9%.

Market panic has simultaneously intensified. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), regarded as the "Wall Street fear gauge," surged above 22 on Friday, ending a four-month period of stability. Analysts pointed out that as automated trading systems triggered stop-loss orders and institutional funds exited positions, market volatility was further amplified. From a market structure perspective, this type of "technical decline" is often accompanied by a surge in trading volume and panic selling, which may maintain a high volatility state in the short term.

After tariff risks resurfaced, investor concerns about the imminent end of the record U.S. stock market rally sharply escalated on Friday. Gene Goldman, Chief Investment Officer of Cetera Investment Management, stated: "This sell-off reflects market tension at current high valuation levels." "Everything in the market is priced based on 'perfect' expectations, so any uncertainty amplifies investor anxiety, undoubtedly intensifying concerns about economic growth."

In Friday's U.S. stock sell-off, technology stocks led the decline. Sectors such as chips, semiconductors, and electric vehicles all fell sharply, with many leading stocks dropping between 5% and 8%. Investors are worried that these industries are not only constrained by the global supply chain in production but also face slowing growth expectations in their sales markets.

Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, pointed out that technology company valuations had been significantly inflated in previous months, and with rising external uncertainties, funds naturally chose to reduce positions in overvalued stocks. Art Hogan stated: "These companies are highly dependent on the globalized system on both the supply and demand sides, and when the external environment is turbulent, the market will first reprice the risks on these stocks."

Notably, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned this week that the risk of a severe decline in U.S. stocks over the next 6 to 24 months is far greater than what the market reflects, and he expressed greater concern about the risk of a significant market adjustment than others.

Dimon stated that much of the rise in U.S. stocks has been driven by investments related to artificial intelligence (AI), and the risk of overheating in the U.S. stock market is increasing. He noted that numerous factors contribute to uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions, fiscal spending, and global remilitarization, all of which are questions no one can answer, thus the market's uncertainty is greater than most people imagine. Regarding AI investments, Dimon mentioned that while AI investments overall will yield returns, some related investments may face losses. He also reiterated his concerns about inflation in the U.S.

However, some investors believe that the sudden escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions is unlikely to significantly change market trends, as AI remains the dominant factor. James St. of Ocean Park Asset Management Aubin stated: "This is undoubtedly a significant issue and may trigger a short-term pullback, but I do not believe it will shake the AI theme that is driving the market upward."

The Chief Investment Officer of Nuveen Asset Management LLC also previously stated that U.S. stocks are likely to continue their upward trend before the end of the year, with robust corporate earnings—especially from the mega-cap tech giants—continuing to drive stock prices higher. Saira Malik pointed out on Thursday that the fourth quarter "is typically a strong performing quarter for the stock market, especially in the context of significant gains achieved year-to-date. Therefore, the probability of the current rally continuing is relatively high."

Despite this round of gains leading to U.S. stock valuations being higher than historical levels and raising concerns about a stock market bubble, Saira Malik believes that strong corporate performance is sufficient to support current valuations. She expects that with the upcoming third-quarter earnings season starting next week, corporate earnings will once again exceed market expectations. Analyst data shows that the profits of S&P 500 constituents are expected to grow by 7.4% in the third quarter, which will be the smallest increase in two years. Saira Malik stated: "If we explore the core driving force behind the rise in tech stocks, we will find that it is primarily driven by earnings growth rather than relying on valuation increases."