Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Intensified speculation leads to a collective "Waterloo" for popular varieties, while consumer goods fill the gap

[Market Dissection]

After the Shanghai Composite Index of A-shares broke through 3900 points yesterday, it faced resistance today, which is typical at such key levels, leading to a correction. The Hong Kong stock market also gapped down under the weakness of U.S. stocks, closing down 1.73%.

U.S. stocks are also facing tough times. According to CCTV News, on the 9th local time, the bill proposed by the Republican Party to end the U.S. government shutdown failed to gain enough votes in the Senate and was not passed. U.S. President Trump stated that, given the apparent deadlock in Congress regarding the government restart, he plans to cut some federally funded projects favored by Democrats. On the first day of the shutdown, the Trump administration announced it would freeze approximately $1.8 billion in funding for infrastructure projects in New York City and cancel about $8 billion in climate-related funding to states leaning Democratic. Two days later, the Trump administration indicated that $2.1 billion in transportation project funding for Chicago was also put on hold. The latest situation is that the Trump administration is considering canceling an additional $12 billion in special funding for clean energy projects. The main goal seems to be to strike at the Democrats. If the shutdown continues, it will inevitably backfire on U.S. stocks.

Worse still, yesterday the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued two announcements regarding the strengthening of export controls on rare earth-related items, raising significant concerns in the U.S. Some articles suggest that the latest measures from China regarding rare earths are seen as an almost unprecedented export control, giving China greater leverage in trade negotiations. On October 9th local time, Trump stated at a Cabinet meeting that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross would discuss countermeasures. Trump threatened, "We import a lot of goods from China, and perhaps we will have to stop doing so." This seems unlikely, as it ultimately affects the livelihoods of ordinary people. Additionally, the Trump administration proposed banning Chinese airlines from flying over Russian airspace on flights to and from the U.S. It is unclear how this proposal was conceived; if rerouting is necessary, it will still be consumers who bear the cost, truly harming both sides.

Returning to the market, the biggest issue now is that all recently popular varieties have encountered a Waterloo, whether it be gold, chips, innovative drugs, energy storage, or robotics, none are performing well. The tide has receded so quickly, fundamentally due to concerns over escalating tensions in great power competition. Fortunately, ZTE Corporation (00763) has retained the spark of technology, mainly speculating on upcoming orders. Domestic companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu are expected to exceed 360 billion yuan in capital expenditures, with China Mobile planning to invest 37.3 billion yuan in computing power by 2025, and Telecom and Unicom increasing their investments in computing power by 22% and 28% year-on-year, respectively. The company's market share in the telecom operator market is 21%, ranking first. Today it rose over 4%.

The funds mentioned yesterday are preemptively speculating on "15th Five-Year Plan," with cement being the continuously fermenting line. Huaxin Cement (06655) announced plans to grant 2.578 million restricted shares to 11 incentive targets; it plans to spend 32.25 million to 64.5 million yuan to repurchase its A-shares, with a repurchase price not exceeding 25 yuan per share. The company plans to change its name to "Huaxin Building Materials," while the stock code remains unchanged. This incentive plan differs from previous stock options and core employee stock ownership plans, focusing more on executives with more diverse assessment indicators. The name change marks the company's transition from cement to building materials, further broadening and enriching its product line, with a significant rise of over 9% today Other varieties such as Jin Yu Group (02009) and Conch Cement (00914) rose more than 7% and nearly 3%, respectively. China CNR Corporation (01766) also performed strongly.

The consumer sector was relatively active today. Mixue Group (02097) recently announced that it has invested 297 million yuan to acquire a 53% stake in Fresh Beer Fulu Family. After the completion of the share transfer, Mixue Group will become the largest shareholder of Fulu Family. This move marks Mixue Group's official entry into the fresh beer market, providing consumers with fresh beer products priced at approximately 6 to 10 yuan. As an emerging leader in the fresh beer industry, Fulu Family's product pricing and store location align with Mixue Group's DNA, which is expected to achieve good synergies in supply chain, consumer operations, and franchise resources. Although this revenue segment is not large, the synergy effect is worth looking forward to, with a rise of over 4% today.

Recently, Nayuki (02150) opened its first store in the United States in New York: a long queue of hundreds of meters wrapped around the street corner, with a surge of customers on the opening day. It is reported that Nayuki's first store in the U.S. generated nearly $87,000 (approximately 620,000 yuan) in revenue within three days of opening, selling nearly 13,000 products and setting a record for Nayuki store openings. If this can be continuously replicated, it deserves a higher valuation. Other varieties such as Bruker (00325) rose over 8% after releasing new products, and Little Garden (00999) rose over 6% due to impressive data during the National Day holiday.

In October 2025, the Houthi attack on merchant ships in the Gulf of Aden escalated, causing the war risk insurance premium for ships to soar to 0.7% of the ship's value. Some shipping companies were forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a 23% actual reduction in capacity on the Asia-Europe route. The detour added about 10 days to the journey and increased fuel costs by 30%, pushing the freight rate on the Shanghai to Rotterdam route to jump 12% in a single week. Pacific Shipping (02343) steadily rose.

Even stronger is the oil shipping sector. Recently, the French Navy seized an oil tanker belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet" on the high seas. EU sanctions against the "shadow fleet" have caused 444 oil tankers to exit the mainstream market, directly benefiting legitimate companies like COSCO Shipping Energy (01138). Additionally, recent large-scale oil purchases by China have led to a "traffic jam" of oil tankers at ports, making price increases in oil shipping inevitable. COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) rose over 5%.

Recently, the Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Health Insurance," with the most market-attention point being the restart of dividend-type long-term health insurance. This means that insurance companies can design health insurance products with dividend functions, allowing policyholders to share in the operating results of the insurance company while providing coverage. This is a significant stimulus for insurance companies, and today China Pacific Insurance (00966) and China Taiping Insurance (02601) performed well, both rising over 3%.

According to the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Changxin Technology has released a report on the completion of its IPO counseling work. Media reports indicate that Dazhong Public Utilities (01635) indirectly holds approximately 0.03856% of Changxin Technology's shares through Shenzhen Capital Group. Shenzhen Capital Group, through its managed funds, such as Ningbo Yanchuang Dexin Venture Capital Partnership, has achieved shareholding in Changxin Technology, and Dazhong Public Utilities has indirectly participated in the investment in Changxin Technology through this channel. The specific investment ratio has not been determined, but there is some correlation, and the market also speculated on this today, rising over 8% Black Sesame Intelligence (02533), Chery (09973) commercial vehicles, and China Pacific Insurance (02601) recently reached a strategic cooperation. The three parties will work together to explore the "technology + insurance" innovation model, empowering the auto insurance underwriting process with advanced assisted driving technology, and building a linkage mechanism for risk reduction and premium discounts, injecting strong momentum into the safety upgrade and operational efficiency improvement of new energy commercial vehicles. Black Sesame Intelligence mainly provides the PA2.0 commercial vehicle active safety system covering both pre-installed and aftermarket scenarios for Chery's Kairy new energy vehicle series. Black Sesame Intelligence (02533) and China Pacific Insurance stand to benefit even more.

【Sector Focus】

Bank of America Securities released a report, expecting that the average net profit of mainland brokers will grow by 9% quarter-on-quarter and 21% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, supported by strong growth in brokerage fees. Stock trading income may exceed expectations, driving overall performance. China International Capital Corporation and CITIC Securities are expected to lead their peers, with net profits in the third quarter projected to grow by 258% and 116% year-on-year, respectively.

Bank of America Securities raised its earnings forecast for brokerage stocks for 2025 to 2026 by 0% to 13%, expecting major listed brokers to achieve an average profit growth of 30% during this period. The firm also raised its forecast for the average daily trading volume of A-shares for 2025 to 2026 by 14% to 18%, estimating it to be between 1.6 trillion and 1.7 trillion yuan. Ample market liquidity continues to support market rises, with the Fourth Plenary Session, the 14th Five-Year Plan, and potential regulatory easing policies being key catalysts to watch.

The firm's preferred stocks include GF Securities (01776), China International Capital Corporation (03908), and CITIC Securities (06030). Strong profit growth is expected for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026, with a continuous improvement in return on equity.

【Stock Picking】

Black Sesame Intelligence (02533): Diversified Expansion, Creating a Second Growth Curve

In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue grew by 40.38% year-on-year to 253 million yuan, setting a new high for the same period; however, net profit plummeted by 169.01%, with a net loss of 762 million yuan.

Commentary: Competition in the smart driving chip market has intensified. In the first half of 2025, the company's R&D expenses amounted to 618 million yuan, and the record high revenue could not mask the losses. The company's revenue growth mainly relies on the sales increase of assisted driving products and solutions, with its A1000 series chip solutions already achieving mass production and delivery in several models such as Geely Galaxy E8, Dongfeng Yipai 007, and Yipai 008, accelerating the pace of commercialization. The Black Sesame Intelligence robot product line is about to be launched. This product line innovatively integrates high-performance SoC chips, modular hardware, and a full-stack software ecosystem, deeply compatible with ROS/ROS2, achieving an industry upgrade with zero migration threshold.

Black Sesame Intelligence has developed two major chip series, Huashan and Wudang, forming a product matrix covering different computing power needs, and has achieved breakthroughs from technological innovation to mass production. The Wudang series focuses on cross-domain computing, with the Wudang C1200 family released in 2023 consisting of the first domestic single-chip platform C1236 supporting NOA and the industry's first multi-domain integration chip platform C1296, achieving innovative breakthroughs in electronic and electrical architecture The Huashan series focuses on assisted driving. The Huashan A1000 chip, released in 2020, perfectly adapts to L2+/L3 level autonomous driving and is the first domestically produced automotive-grade single-chip platform supporting navigation-assisted driving. The Huashan A2000 family, set to be released by the end of 2024, fully embraces large models, achieving a breakthrough in AI computing efficiency. It integrates industry-leading multifunctional units including CPU, DSP, GPU, NPU, MCU, ISP, and CV, and features the industry's largest specification NPU core - Black Sesame Intelligent Jiu Shao®.

Since August of this year, the company has been intensively laying out new fields such as rail transit and robotics, creating a "second growth curve." In the rail transit sector, Black Sesame Intelligent has launched an AI obstacle detection and early warning system, which has been recognized by leading domestic equipment manufacturers, with expected order amounts reaching tens of millions of dollars. In the robotics field, it has collaborated with Yun Shen Chu Technology to develop an embodied intelligent control platform, targeting scenarios such as humanoid robots and robotic dogs, and is accelerating expansion through capital operations such as investment