Will the US stock market tremble? Dimon gives the market a "wake-up call": Beware of a severe correction in the next 6 months to 2 years!
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. stock market faces a significant risk of correction in the next 6 months to 2 years. He pointed out that there are various uncertainties currently, including geopolitical tensions, fiscal policy, and the trend of global militarization, which increase the variability of the market environment. Although he is optimistic about artificial intelligence technology, he cautioned that a blind influx of funds could lead to waste. Additionally, Dimon expressed concerns about inflation and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and he believes that the U.S. dollar remains the best currency globally, but he advises investors to appropriately reduce their proportion of dollar assets
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) CEO Jamie Dimon recently issued a warning that the risk of a significant correction in the U.S. stock market is rising significantly over the next 6 months to 2 years.
Dimon stated, "My concerns on this issue far exceed those of others." He further pointed out that there are currently "many uncertainties" that are collectively creating a volatile environment, with specific risks including geopolitical tensions, fiscal spending policies, and a trend of militarization globally.
In an interview on Wednesday, Dimon emphasized, "All these factors have raised a series of questions that we cannot yet answer," and specifically mentioned that the risk of overheating currently faced by the U.S. stock market has significantly intensified. "Therefore, I believe that the level of uncertainty in public perception should be significantly higher than normal."
Regarding the main driving force behind the recent rise in the stock market—artificial intelligence (AI) technology—Dimon holds an overall optimistic attitude. "I believe AI is a real technological innovation, and its overall development will bring substantial returns." However, he also warned that there is currently a lot of "hype" surrounding AI, with a large amount of capital blindly pouring in, and some of the funds currently entering the AI field are likely to be wasted in the end.
Additionally, Dimon stated that he believes President Trump will not "interfere with the independence of the Federal Reserve," but he has concerns about inflation, to the extent that he feels the Federal Reserve may not be able to meet the market's expectations for a 100 basis point rate cut.
In response to the claim that "the rise in cryptocurrency and gold prices indicates a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and American economic leadership," Dimon refuted this. He stated, "I do not believe that people have lost confidence in the dollar; investors are just 'a bit more cautious'." The dollar remains the best currency globally.
However, Dimon advised investors that, given the current high proportion of dollar assets in their investment portfolios, they may need to consider reducing this proportion appropriately.
It is understood that as early as last October, Dimon had a cautious outlook on the U.S. economic prospects. At that time, he warned that tariff policies, immigration issues, geopolitical situations, and the tax and spending policies promoted by Trump, due to their long-term effects, still make it difficult to determine the overall impact of these policies
