More optimistic than Goldman Sachs! Citigroup is bullish on copper prices reaching $12,000 and tin prices reaching $40,000

The commodity market is undergoing a significant price reassessment, with Citigroup releasing a more aggressive bullish report than Goldman Sachs.

On October 9th, according to news from the Wind Trading Desk, Citigroup's latest research report shows a more optimistic outlook for commodities compared to Goldman Sachs, predicting that copper prices will rise to $11,000 per ton within 0-3 months and reach an average of $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026.

More importantly, the Citigroup report lists six potential catalysts that could bring the $12,000 target "forward." This stands in stark contrast to Goldman Sachs' established "high volatility range" of $10,000-$11,000 per ton. At the same time, Citigroup has given a strong forecast of $40,000 per ton for tin prices.

Analysts point out that both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup's reports indicate that market bullish sentiment for copper and tin is heating up, with the core logic being macroeconomic policies (such as interest rate cut expectations and currency depreciation) and structural supply-demand imbalances.

Citigroup Raises Forecast: Copper Price Target at $12,000, Tin Price Bullish at $40,000

In its latest "Metal Matters" report, Citigroup has significantly raised its forecasts for copper and tin prices. Specifically, Citigroup has increased its 0-3 month copper price target from the previous $10,500 per ton to $11,000 per ton, and expects that by the second quarter of 2026, copper prices will average $12,000 per ton.

Citigroup states that although the baseline forecast is for copper prices to rise to $12,000 in the second quarter of 2026, the six catalysts could significantly accelerate this process. The catalysts include changes in Federal Reserve personnel, progress on trade agreements, fiscal stimulus implementation, and downward adjustments in copper mine supply, with policy and political trends becoming key variables.

For tin prices, Citigroup's forecast is even more aggressive, raising it from the previous range of $33,000-$35,000 per ton to $40,000 per ton, expecting this price level to be achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintained throughout 2026, due to Indonesia's crackdown on informal mining, which will further extend the global tin supply tightness.

Citigroup indicates that the market can digest recent demand concerns and reflect the more optimistic fundamentals for the two metals ahead of 2026.

Goldman Sachs: $10,000 is the "New Bottom Line," but There is a "Ceiling" in the Short Term

As mentioned in a previous article by Jianwen, in comparison, Goldman Sachs' view, while also optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of copper prices, appears more cautious in the short term. Goldman Sachs believes that copper prices are entering a new trading range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton.

The "New Bottom Line" of $10,000: Supported by structural challenges on the supply side. The difficulty and cost of mining have increased, leading to slow supply growth (expected to average only 1.5% growth per year from 2025 to 2030).

Goldman Sachs points out that to balance the market in the latter part of this decade, brownfield projects in South America need to be initiated, which requires an incentive price of at least $10,500 per ton. Additionally, strategic demands such as artificial intelligence and defense (which Goldman Sachs refers to as the transition from "Copper Doctor" to "Copper Colonel") also provide solid support for prices $11,000 "ceiling": Mainly stems from the "near-term concerns" of the short-term market. Goldman Sachs expects a slight surplus of 180,000 tons in the market in 2026.

The report states that high prices will stimulate an increase in scrap copper supply, while the substitution effect of aluminum will significantly strengthen when the copper-aluminum price ratio exceeds 4:1 (approximately corresponding to a copper price of $10,200), thereby limiting the upward potential of copper prices.

Goldman Sachs also mentioned a key variable—strategic reserves. If countries like China and the United States engage in strategic procurement, it can absorb the surplus inventory in the market and provide downward protection for prices. However, if reserves fall short of expectations, there is a risk that prices could drop below $10,000