Longer than expected, this round of "old storage" price increase cycle will last until 2026

Wallstreetcn
2025.10.08 06:50
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While mainstream chips are making significant progress, the market for older storage chips is opening a noteworthy profit window

Old storage chips welcome a "second spring," with a boom period exceeding expectations.

According to Hard AI, Morgan Stanley's latest research report released on October 6, 2025, indicates that the boom period for legacy memory chips is not only stronger than market expectations but may also last longer, until 2026. The supply tightness of mainstream storage chips is being transmitted to older products, leading to an unexpected increase in prices for chips such as DDR4, DDR3, and NOR Flash.

This trend presents significant investment opportunities for specific semiconductor companies. While mainstream chips are thriving, the old storage chip market is opening a noteworthy profit window.

Mainstream market supply is tight, clear signals of price increases

The report first points out the tense situation in the mainstream storage market, which is key to understanding the market for older chips.

  • In terms of DRAM: Mainstream DRAM suppliers have stopped providing quotes to enterprise customers for the fourth quarter. In the industry, this is typically a strong signal of supply shortages and impending significant price increases.

  • In terms of NAND: Industry giant SanDisk has begun discussions with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to explore potential future capacity support. Although the likelihood of cooperation is low considering SanDisk's joint venture with Kioxia and technological differences, this move itself confirms that the entire NAND industry is facing supply shortages.

Old DRAM prices soar, increases may exceed expectations

The shortage effects in the mainstream market are rapidly transmitting to the old DDR4 and DDR3 markets, with price increases potentially surpassing those of mainstream products.

  • Significant supply gap for DDR4: The report predicts that there will be a 10-15% supply gap for DDR4 over the next three quarters, and limitations in backend packaging capacity may exacerbate the situation. Therefore, contract prices for certain DDR4 specifications may double in the fourth quarter.

  • Shortened validity period for quotes: Currently, the validity period for DDR4 quotes has been shortened to less than a month, meaning contract prices may adjust upwards within weeks.

  • DDR3 catching up: Prices for DDR3 are also rising strongly, with expectations of achieving "high double-digit" growth by the fourth quarter.

NOR Flash price increases are more sustainable, with broad demand prospects

Compared to DRAM, the price increase trend for older Flash seems more sustainable, mainly driven by emerging demand.

  • NOR Flash prices steadily rising: The report maintains its view that NOR Flash prices will increase by 5-10% in the fourth quarter.

  • Demand drives supply gap expansion: The growth in demand from the Internet of Things (IoT) and server sectors is expected to expand the supply gap for NOR Flash from "low single digits" to "mid single digits."

  • AirPods as a key growth point: The report specifically notes that since each AirPods requires three high-density NOR Flash chips, by 2026, AirPods alone may account for 5-10% of global NOR Flash demand This indicates that the price increase trend of NOR Flash is expected to continue until 2026

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