Strong manufacturing sector, Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.23% year-on-year in the third quarter

Vietnam's economic growth accelerated to its fastest level in three years in the third quarter, with strong manufacturing and business activities helping the country effectively buffer the initial impact of new tariff measures.

According to data released by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam on Monday, the country's GDP grew by 8.23% year-on-year during the period from July to September this year, significantly higher than the median estimate of 7.15% by surveyed analysts. Meanwhile, the GDP growth rate for the second quarter was also revised upward from the previous 7.96% to 8.19%.

The strong performance of the manufacturing sector is the core driving force behind this economic expansion. Nguyen Thi Huong, head of the General Statistics Office, stated at a press conference that manufacturing activities continued to grow as companies ramped up production ahead of the U.S. tariff deadline. Following the data release, Vietnam's benchmark VN Index rose by as much as 2.6% on Monday morning, marking the largest single-day gain since August 26.

Despite the impressive quarterly data, officials remain cautious about the annual target. Nguyen Thi Huong warned that achieving the government's set growth target of 8.3%-8.5% for the year will be "extremely challenging" in the current global environment.

Manufacturing and Exports Show Resilience

Data from the statistics office shows that Vietnam's manufacturing output grew by 9.92% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025. In September, Vietnam's exports to the United States surged by 38.5% year-on-year, reaching USD 13.7 billion.

Apple CEO Tim Cook stated in May that Vietnam would produce "almost all" of its iPads, MacBooks, watches, and AirPods for the U.S. market. Samsung Electronics also has a large manufacturing base in the country, producing smartphones and other electronic products.

Pham Vu Thang Long, chief economist at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Company, stated:

"The growth rate this quarter is quite positive, reflecting Vietnam's unexpected export resilience, and industrial output has also exceeded expectations. However, we still need to closely monitor the construction and service sectors, as their growth has slowed compared to the second quarter."

Tariff Challenges and Policy Responses

According to a previous report by Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, stating that all goods exported from Vietnam to the U.S. would face tariffs of at least 20%, and that the U.S. would "fully open its market."

In the face of external pressures, the Vietnamese government is actively taking measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs. According to a decree issued in September, the government will provide financial incentives to businesses in industries ranging from electronics to textiles, particularly targeting small enterprises, to enhance the localization of supply chains. Specific measures include providing up to 70% funding support for quality and production improvements, and up to 50% subsidies for expenses related to R&D, consulting, new equipment procurement, and training services

Loose Monetary Policy and Growth Prospects

The State Bank of Vietnam reiterated last Friday that it will continue to work to stimulate lending and growth, support key industries, while avoiding credit risks and controlling inflation. As of September 29, the total bank loans increased by 13.37% compared to the end of 2024. Regulators expect that by the end of this year, credit growth will accelerate to 19%-20%.

The level of inflation provides room for loose monetary policy. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.38% year-on-year, lower than the government's annual target of 4.5%-5%. Pham Vu Thang Long believes:

"With the inflation rate remaining below 3.5%, the central bank can continue to implement a loose monetary policy to stimulate economic growth before the end of the year."

Other key data released on Monday showed:

• GDP grew by 7.85% year-on-year in the first nine months.
• Exports increased by 24.7% year-on-year in September, while imports rose by 24.9%.
• In the first nine months, committed foreign direct investment (FDI) grew by 15.2% year-on-year, and realized FDI increased by 8.5%