JPMorgan Private Bank: For every week the U.S. government shutdown continues, the quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to decline by approximately 0.1–0.2 percentage points
JPMorgan Chase's global investment strategist Chen Weiheng stated that historical data shows the market's reaction to U.S. government shutdowns is limited, with an overall insignificant impact. Given that the 2026 appropriations bill has not yet been passed, if the government shuts down, the quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to decline by about 0.1–0.2 percentage points for each week it lasts. However, the impact of shutdowns on the economy is usually reversed in the following quarter, with most effects expected to recover in the first quarter of 2026. Since 1980, the S&P 500 index has averaged flat performance during shutdowns, and U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have shown similar trends. Government shutdowns do not affect the repayment of Treasury bonds or principal payments due. As for the impact on economic growth, each shutdown situation varies. For example, during the 2019 shutdown, some government funding had already been approved, resulting in a limited impact on GDP. Government shutdowns have occurred multiple times since the late 1970s, with 10 instances triggered by funding gaps, leading to the closure of government agencies and employees being fully or partially furloughed. Some shutdowns lasted only one day, while the longest lasted from December 2018 to January 2019, for a total of 34 days
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Chen Weiheng, a global investment strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank, stated that historical data shows that the market's reaction to U.S. government shutdowns is limited, with an overall insignificant impact. Given that the 2026 appropriations bill has not yet been passed, if the government shuts down, the quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to decline by about 0.1–0.2 percentage points for each week it lasts. However, the impact of shutdowns on the economy is usually reversed in the following quarter, with most effects expected to recover in the first quarter of 2026.
Since 1980, the S&P 500 index has averaged flat performance during shutdowns, and U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have shown similar trends. Government shutdowns do not affect the repayment of Treasury bonds or principal payments due. As for the impact on economic growth, each shutdown situation varies. For example, during the 2019 shutdown, some government funding had already been approved, resulting in limited impact on GDP.
Government shutdowns have occurred multiple times since the late 1970s, with 10 instances triggered by funding gaps that led to the closure of government agencies and the furlough of employees, either fully or partially. Some shutdowns lasted only one day, while the longest lasted from December 2018 to January 2019, for a total of 34 days
