Understanding the Market | Gold stocks rise across the board, CHI SILVER GP up over 24%, as risk aversion and interest rate cut expectations drive up gold prices
Gold stocks rose across the board, with CHI SILVER GP up over 24% and ZIJIN GOLD INTL up 14.18%. International gold prices hit a historic record, approaching USD 3,900 per ounce. The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease in new jobs in the private sector, with interest rate cut expectations rising to 99%. The U.S. government shutdown may affect the release of economic data, and gold is expected to perform better than U.S. stocks and bonds. Goldman Sachs predicts that international gold prices will reach USD 4,000 by mid-2026, and in extreme cases, could reach USD 5,000
According to Zhitong Finance APP, gold stocks have risen across the board. As of the time of publication, China Silver Group (00815) rose by 24.53% to HKD 0.66; Zijin Gold International (02259) rose by 14.18% to HKD 137.7; Lingbao Gold (03330) rose by 8.02% to HKD 19.93; Tongguan Gold (00340) rose by 6.27% to HKD 2.88; and Chifeng Gold (06693) rose by 6.18% to HKD 32.3.
In terms of news, on October 1st, international gold prices once again set a historical record, with London gold prices approaching USD 3,900 per ounce during trading, and COMEX gold prices breaking through USD 3,900 per ounce. The U.S. ADP employment report showed that in September 2025, the number of new jobs in the U.S. private sector decreased by 32,000, far below the market expectation of an increase of 50,000. According to CME's "Fed Watch," after the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October rose to 99%. It is worth noting that due to the U.S. Senate's rejection of bipartisan funding bills on September 30th, at 12:01 AM local time on October 1st, the U.S. federal government shut down for the first time in nearly seven years, forcing hundreds of thousands of federal employees to face mandatory leave or layoffs, and many federal departments' services were also "suspended."
Everbright Securities recently pointed out that if the U.S. government shuts down and economic data is paused, the difficulty of Federal Reserve decision-making will increase, making the path for interest rate cuts more likely to be "steady," continuing the guidance from September, and gold will perform better than U.S. stocks and bonds. Goldman Sachs, in its latest report in early September, predicted that by mid-2026, international gold prices would soar to USD 4,000 per ounce, and in some extreme cases, could even reach USD 4,500. Goldman Sachs added that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is weakened, and investors only shift a small portion of their holdings from Treasury bonds to gold bars, future gold prices could rise to around USD 5,000 per ounce
