Investors bet that the impact of a U.S. government shutdown will be limited as the S&P 500 index breaks through 6,700 points. Wall Street legendary investors issue a warning of a market crash

According to Zhitong Finance APP, the U.S. stock market hit a new all-time high on Wednesday, indicating that investors have limited concerns about a federal government shutdown and hope for a brief stoppage with manageable economic impacts. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.34% to 6,711.20 points, reaching a historical high during the session; the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.42% to close at 22,755.16 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 43.21 points to 46,441.10 points.

In the early trading session, the S&P 500 briefly fell by 0.5%, but reversed course thanks to a rebound in the healthcare sector, with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.US) and Moderna (MRNA.US) seeing their stock prices rise. Throughout September, the S&P 500 has accumulated a gain of over 3.5%, continuing its strong momentum. Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates, stated, "The market seems unconcerned, and momentum remains positive."

Despite the strong market performance, the political deadlock in Washington has heightened uncertainty. The Republican-controlled Senate failed to pass a temporary funding bill, leading to a formal government shutdown, with approximately 750,000 federal employees forced into unpaid leave. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown will significantly hinder short-term economic activity. Trump has threatened to "permanently lay off" some federal employees if the shutdown is prolonged. Vice President Vance indicated that layoffs are not ruled out but believes the shutdown "will not last too long."

The market's focus is on the duration of the shutdown. This shutdown has caused government agencies, including the Department of Labor, to cease operations, meaning the September non-farm payroll report will not be released on time, putting the Federal Reserve in a "data vacuum" ahead of its meeting at the end of October. Meanwhile, the ADP employment data released on Wednesday showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector, far below the market expectation of an increase of 45,000, marking the largest decline since March 2023. This has led the market to expect that the Federal Reserve will implement its second interest rate cut of the year this month and may cut rates again in December.

Although the market atmosphere is generally optimistic, some well-known investors have issued warnings. Wall Street legend Cooperman pointed out that current market sentiment is reminiscent of the tech bubble at the end of the last century, with valuations of AI-related stocks being "ridiculously high." He quoted Buffett from 1999, stating, "Once everyone can make money regardless of the method, the market will attract investors purely out of fear of missing out, which is often a precursor to the end of a bull market."

Data shows that the S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 40% since its low in April, led by large tech companies. Meanwhile, the "Buffett Indicator" (the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP) has soared to 217%, far exceeding the highs during the internet bubble and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. Buffett has referred to this level as "playing with fire."

Despite the ongoing warnings, Cooperman still believes that in a high-inflation environment, the risk of stocks may be lower than that of bonds, as the nominal interest rates on bonds are fixed, and real returns can be easily eroded by inflation